Rose Bowl Preview: Oregon vs Wisconsin

Wisconsin Badgers (11-2 overall, 7-2 in Big 10 Conference)

Most impressive victory: 45-7 vs. Penn State (Nov. 26)

Worst loss: 37-31 at Michigan State (Oct. 22)

Notable alumni: Don Ameche, Gabe Carimi, Jonathan Casillas, Curtis Joseph, Charles Lindbergh, Bud Selig and Frank Lloyd Wright

This game was not nicknamed “the Granddaddy of them all” for failure to live up to its hype, and this year’s matchup has plenty of it. Wisconsin arrives in the City of Roses intent on avenging a loss here to TCU a year ago. Oregon fell to Auburn 22-19 in the BCS National Championship Game last year, but also lost to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl to end the 2009 season.

This marks the Badgers eighth trip to Pasadena, with three wins (1953 loss to USC 7-0, 1960 loss to Washington 44-8, 1963 loss to USC 42-37, 1994 defeated UCLA 21-16, 1999 defeated UCLA 38-31, 2000 defeated Stanford 17-9, 2011 lost to TCU 21-19).

Wisconsin earned its Rose Bowl bid by defeating Michigan State 42-39 in the inaugural Big 10 Championship Game in Indianapolis on Dec 3rd. For the most part, the Badgers have dominated their opponents this season. Their two losses came in the waning seconds of close games, and both by desperation TD passes.

The Badger offense was ranked 13^th nationally and was as balanced as any. Led by Russell Wilson, a graduate transfer QB from North Carolina State, it was 5^th in average points scored with 44.6. Wilson was in the media spotlight throughout the season. He threw for 2,879 yards and 30 TDs, with only three INTs. He also rushed for 320 yards and five TDs. With stats such as those, a player might expect to find himself in New York for the Heisman ceremonies. Instead, teammate Monte Ball earned that invitation.

Ball, a junior RB, amassed 1,759 yards rushing (6.4 yard average) and 32 TDs on the ground. He added 475 yards and 6 TDs through the air. The TD numbers were the most since Barry Sanders’ 44 at Oklahoma State in 1988. Sophomore RB James White was dangerous too. He scored six TDs and had a 5.1 yard average per carry.

When throwing the Ball, Wilson had excellent options. Sophomore WR Jared Abbrederis had 814 receiving yards (16 yard average) and seven TDs. Senior Nick Toon averaged only a yard less per catch, racking up 822 total yards and nine TDs. Sophomore TE Jacob Pedersen found paydirt eight times with a per-catch average of just less than 12 yards.

As powerful and balanced as the Wisconsin offense was, its defense was an equal contributor to the Badgers’ on-field success. Ranked 8^th overall, it was 3^rd against the run, allowing only 155 rushing yards per game on average. Led by LBs Chris Borland (sophomore; 124 tackles, two INTs) and Mike Taylor (junior; 129 tackles, two INTs) and DB Aaron Henry (senior; 58 tackles, three INTs), they’ll have to contend with Oregon’s well-honed zone read offense to keep the game from getting away. Expect Brett Bielema’s club to be ready though.

A tribute to the team’s synergy is the fact that Wisconsin OC Paul Chryst, hired recently to replace Todd Graham as head coach at Pittsburgh, is hanging around to take part in this game. The Badgers should be motivated to score a victory in his honor.

Oregon Ducks (11-2 overall, 9-1 in Pacific 12 Conference)

Most impressive victory: 53-30 at Stanford (Nov. 12)

Worst loss: 40-27 vs. LSU (Dallas, Sept. 3)

Notable alumni: Neil Everett, Stu Jackson, Kellen Clemens, Dan Fouts, A.J. Feeley, Ahmad Rashad, Haloti Ngata, Norv Turner

The Ducks will be making their sixth Rose Bowl trip, with only one previous victory (1917 defeated Pennsylvania 14-0, 1920 lost to Harvard 7-6, 1958 lost to Ohio State 10-7, 1995 lost to Penn State 38-20, 2010 lost to Ohio State 26-17). They earned the bid as inaugural Pac-12 champions, defeating UCLA 49-31 on Dec 2nd in Eugene.

The Ducks saw their chance of challenging for a second consecutive national championship disappear with an opening game loss to LSU. The defeat did not deter them however, as they reeled off nine straight victories (including one at previously unbeaten Stanford) before dropping a game at home to USC, 38-35. They closed out the season with two victories going away against in-state rival Oregon State and UCLA in the championship game.

Junior RB LaMichael James is the focal point of the Duck offense. A Heisman contender in the 2010 season, injuries prevented his consideration this season. Despite missing two games, he rushed for 1,646 yards (7.4 per carry) and 17 TDs. Junior RB Kenjon Barner collected 909 yards and 11 TDs too. Freshmen De’Anthony Thomas (Pac 12 co-Freshman of the Year) has 571 yards and nine TDs through the air to go along with 440 yards and 5 TDs on the ground.

Junior QB Darron Thomas (2,493 yards, 30 TDs, six INTs) is the proverbial dual threat although his rushing stats (205 yards, three TDs) are approximately half those of last season. Among wideouts, senior Lavasier Tuinei has 441 yards and eight TDs and sophomore Josh Huff has 416 yards and two TDs. Senior TE David Paulson may also be a factor. He has 428 yards and six TDs on the season.

The offense is ranked 4^th overall and 5^th in rushing. Coach Chip Kelly has a few standard formations from which he runs a variety of plays. His zone read scheme is one of the best in the NCAA, and he’s not opposed to pulling out all the stops on offense.

The strength of the defense lies with Junior DE Dion Jordan (7.5 sacks, 9 tackles for loss), Senior LB Josh Kaddu (46 tackles, 6.5 sacks) and Senior DB Eddie Pleasant (58 tackles, 3 INTs). The defense is ranked 61 overall and 41^st against the rush, allowing 137.5 rushing yards on average.

THE PICKS:

Pete: In the all-important battle of uniforms, although I am a decided traditionalist, I yield to the sleek and colorful Oregon unis. With regard to on-the-field play, you may have as much success flipping a coin as picking a winner on analysis. Though Oregon is a slight favorite, it’s just on paper.

These teams each has something to prove: Oregon that it is still in the top echelon of the FBS, and Wisconsin that their second consecutive Rose Bowl berth is not a fluke.

I expect Darron Thomas to be the X-factor in this game. If he proves a challenge for Wisconsin to defend, the Ducks should prevail.

Oregon 28, Wisconsin 27

Kevin: Oregon has an elite offense. The top offense that Wisconsin faced this year was NIU, but let’s face it their stats were padded by playing in the mostly un-defensive MAC. Wisconsin had the top offense in the Big Ten. The next two were Michigan and Northwestern and Wisconsin didn’t play either of those teams. The best offense in terms of total yardage not named NIU that Wisconsin played this year was Nebraska (57th in the Nation). When I think of good offenses, Nebraska is not one that I think of. I think at this point it would be fair to refer to the Wisconsin defense as a paper tiger. They still have a chance to prove that they are an elite defense but I have a lot of trouble thinking they can do that against a team like Oregon. Wisconsin will keep this close because they have a very good offense but look for Oregon to pull away late in this track meet.

Oregon 42 Wisconsin 31