Before last night’s game, I wrote this: I’m already pretty convinced that his time remaining in the rotation is limited and a good start against the Astros won’t change my mind, but I do suppose it’ll be a start.
Ohlendorf then went out and struck out six Astros over five solid innings and I’ll admit it, I’m intrigued now. I’m a Pirate fan. I get intrigued by the most vaguely impressive things. So let’s ask the question up front: Did Ross Ohlendorf look good last night because he was pitching against the Astros, or because he was actually pitching well?
The first question is about his velocity. He just can’t be that effective when his fastball sits in the very low 90s. In one of his last good starts from 2010, August 13th in Houston, his fastball averaged 93.3 mph and topped out at just over 95. Against Milwaukee in his first start back from the DL, his averaged 90.5 and topped out at 92.5. Last night, he averaged 90.7 and topped out at 93.4. So he had a little more oomph last night, but he’s definitely nowhere near where he was pre-injury. For visualization, here’s a graph of his velocity-by-pitch-count from each of the three mentioned starts. I think it makes it pretty easy to see that he’s just not throwing as hard as he was last year, and it’s not all that close.
If you were in the “Ross Ohlendorf struck out six people because he’s improving after his injury” camp and not the “Ross Ohlendorf struck out six people because the Astros suck” camp, you can’t be feeling too comfortable right now.
But I am a thorough and hopeful blogger, so let’s ask a second question. Did Ray Searage teach Ross Ohlendorf a different changeup or a better sinker? I mean, Ray Searage taught everyone a different changeup or a better sinker this year, right? Is that why Ohlendorf looked better last night? 
This is your horizontal movement vs. vertical movement chart and Ohlendorf’s fastball/changeup (the blob on the upper left) looks about the same, though I suppose if you squint you might be able to convince yourself it’s a little bit heavier this year. It also looks like there’s a little more sweep on his slider. Of course, his slider is about 2 mph slower this year, like every other pitch he throws, so you might expect it to be a little looser than it’s been in the past.
I’d like to see a little more data on the fastballs before I make any conclusion about how it compares to what he’s thrown in the past, but I really don’t see any reason to get excited about Ohlendorf’s start last night. It looked about the same as his start against the Brewers, which is well behind where he was even in 2010. The only thing that changed was the competition.
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