Rotating the Rotation

The Indians were rained out today and will make up the game tomorrow night, but they will do so with a different pitcher than originally expected. Cody Anderson was supposed to start tonight with Trevor Bauer going tomorrow, but instead, the Indians will use the 26 man roster addition to bring up Toru Murata from AAA to pitch the night game with Anderson going Monday and the rest of the rotation backed up a day.

The general reasoning behind this will be looked into in a moment, but first Murata deserves his dues. For those completely unfamiliar with him (which is understandable given his career 3.88 ERA minor league), Murata is a 30 year old, right handed Japanese pitcher who was originally drafted out of Osaka Taiiku University by the Yomiuri Giants, but after three years in the minor leagues, was let go and became a free agent in America.

He joined the Indians in Winter of 2010 and has played in the farm system ever since, rising from A+ in his first year to AAA in his second, although he never found true success at that level until this season. This year, he holds a 2.79 ERA, all in Columbus, with 48 strike outs to 24 walks. Murata is not the ace of the future or a flame thrower by any means, but he will provide a different look for the Orioles to face than any other pitcher in the current rotation.

The fact that Murata is currently the number six man on the depth chart goes a long way in describing the Indians lack of depth at the high minor levels for starting pitchers, but there is a solid reason why the Indians will be doing this. The chart below goes a little way into explaining that.

Each of the Indians starters who have been on the team long enough to establish some numbers have been much better with more rest. This makes sense as the pitchers who generally have trouble pitching with extra rest are those who don’t want the extra power, such as knuckle ballers or split finger first junk ballers. When you are trying to pitch low and slow, a little extra energy can bring those pitches up in the zone. The Indians don’t have anyone who pitches slow or any reasonable facsimile thereof.

The numbers above are each player’s ERA this season with four through six games of rest between their starts, showing the benefit of a little extra time off. Kluber in particular, the Indians most used pitcher this year, has shown an extreme difference. While it may seem advantageous to get as many starts as possible out of the ace, he isn’t quite as much of an ace on four days rest as he is on five or six. In fact, only Trevor Bauer has pitched better on four days rest than five this year and even he pitched better through six.

The above table shows the original schedule with the change to the rotation to the right. Outside of Anderson, each of the Indians starters will gain another day of rest between their starts, something that should be particularly beneficial for Kluber. Chances are moving back a single day won’t cost Kluber a start this year. In fact, if they don’t tweak the rotation again, Kluber will pitch on the day before the All-Star break for the Indians, maximizing his total starts for the year to this point.

While Murata may not be a proven star, his change of pace from the regular starters may be enough for him to have a good game, or at least good enough to be worth a run in each of the four following games. While this isn’t necessarily the only thinking that went into this decision, it seems a valid line, making it more important that the rest of the rotation gets some extra rest than who in particular makes the Sunday night start.