Round 1, Game 3 and 4: Coyotes at Red Wings

Well, Wings fans are known for being a tinfoil hat wearing society, so I’m sure most are going to extreme lengths to maintain good karma so that this does NOT happen again. In all honesty, there’s just no way it will ever be as bad as it was this season. It wasn’t even the depth guys like Kris Draper or Kirk Maltby (who’s out now, but that’s beside the point), it was star players, it was at one time, and it was for significant lengths of time. I think there was a month span where they didn’t go two full games without losing somebody at least for a period or two. However, no player has really showed lingering effects from whatever ailed them this season. Johan Franzen only seems to get hurt in the United Center, and Niklas Kronwall is half-made of glass, so those are the only real concerns. Brian Rafalski left last night and didn’t practice today, but he played through some injuries last year and looked pretty good. Overall, not concerned.

Prior to Game 3 the answer was certainly “yes,” “no,” and “whatever, just keep Chris Osgood out” without any real explanation. However, this has been the hot button topic since yesterday afternoon, with Babcock sticking behind his man in Howard for Game 4. To preface this, many fans were on the fence about Howard as he never really showed the consistency needed to just be handed an NHL job. But he fought off “tough” competition from the likes of Dan Cloutier in training camp and won the backup job… then played bad in his first few appearances. Osgood wasn’t playing great either, and eventually Howard just got hot. Most assumed we could ride him out and try to get Osgood back for the playoffs, but there was a fundamental problem with that. The team just couldn’t afford losses in the second half of the season and that’s all Osgood was delivering. Sure, he was going more than a month in between starts, so some of the blame can be placed on Babcock. But I don’t know how smart these people who “blame” Babcock are, when his decision to stick with Howard saw the team jump from 10th to 5th after the Olympic break.

Here’s Osgood’s deal: mentally, he’s terrible. Well, not terrible, but dangerously unpredictable for sure. Every time he’s the unquestioned starter he can’t find a way to motivate himself. He just does not enjoy regular seasons. But then you look at the ’08 series against Nashville where he comes in after almost a month and wins the series. That’s because there was no pressure on him. You change goalies in the playoffs: you’re preparing to get eliminated. Osgood loses there, and most of the blame falls on Hasek for getting Detroit to that spot. He wins and everyone’s happy he won the series — leading to little to no pressure for the second round, since we wouldn’t have gotten there without him.

I suspect this will happen if Detroit loses Game 4, barring some miracle 40-save performance by Howard where Phoenix wins 1-0 — Chris Osgood will probably play Game 5. I have been unbearably pro-Howard all season but I admit that he’s been bad this series, some of his weakest and least timely goals since November when he was still learning how to not slide out of his crease on long shots. If he isn’t going to bring it tomorrow, I have doubts in getting a rookie goalie to miraculously gain confidence and get Detroit out of a 3-1 hole. That’s where I’d go for Osgood. His play certainly doesn’t deserve it, and his attitude doesn’t either, but there’s just a strange feeling that you know he’ll do well if he has the opportunity to truly prove to Babcock that he mishandled the whole situation, because that’s just what Osgood does. If he loses, I won’t hold it against him because I really don’t think he has it in him any more. If he wins, I’ll be more than happy to shut up. At the very least, it spares me the summer of having to listen to “shoulda started Osgood” without pointing out that he was a spectacular 7-9-4 this season.

If I were Mike Babcock there would be so many mischievous things I would do before even preparing for Game 4, but I digress. I wouldn’t mind seeing the forwards being shuffled up. The Filppula/Zetterberg/Bertuzzi line has been absolutely spectacular, but Franzen is making the Datsyuk line invisible and the 3rd and 4th line haven’t done much. I’d start the game with the Eurotwins re-united with Holmstrom, and the red hot Filppula centering Franzen and maybe a big game player like Cleary instead of Bertuzzi, who could be used with maybe Eaves and Miller for an energetic 3rd/4th line with a better chance of chipping in a goal. But overall I’m not upset with the lines because they’re virtually the same ones that won 15 of 20 games after the Olympic break.

Strategy-wise, a strong start is just an absolute must. They haven’t shown it so far, but the fact is the Coyotes are young and inexperienced as a unit. If Detroit could outhit and outshoot then for even the first 10 minutes, they’re going to make life a lot easier for themselves since younger teams are more prone to getting into penalty trouble, not to mention Phoenix has been content with clogging the neutral zone once they get a lead. Obviously there’s not a game where you don’t want to score first so saying this is all very “duh,” but just based on how Phoenix plays with a lead, Babcock shouldn’t be afraid to start double-shifting the big guns early to insure that Detroit gets that early lead and keeps the home crowd in it.

I had two fears: Shane Doan and Ilya Bryzgalov. I’m still afraid of Doan, but for different reasons. He’s been waiting so patiently and he’s been so good to the franchise that I pegged him as a guy that could be completely take over the series and score a ton of big goals. I won’t argue that the goal which tied Game 2 at four wasn’t big, but other than that I can’t recall Doan even getting a great scoring chance. Instead, he’s been way more physical than anticipated and seems content to not be the team’s number one offensive threat. If I were a Phoenix fan, I’m not sure I want to see him playing agitator — I want his physical play, but I don’t want him running out of his way to do it, but I’m not a Phoenix fan — and more importantly, my team is not up 2-1 in this series.

Bryzgalov still frightens me as well. He let up a really weak one in Game 1, and Detroit roasted him for six in Game 2, but it doesn’t change the fact that every time I watched Phoenix this season he was their best player and he’s proven that he’s more than capable of taking this series despite his early shortcomings.

For Phoenix, it’s been the energy level. I knew they were quick and I noted as much in my series preview. However, they’re way deeper and more physical than I imagined. They’re not a huge team but they’re always finishing their checks and not giving Detroit’s players any room. But I didn’t give the four lines nearly enough credit offensively. All four lines can really cycle the puck and create chances, and all four lines have been doing that. With all due respect to Daniel Winnik, Petteri Nokelainen, and Lauri Korpikoski, I didn’t think that line would really be able to handle regular shifts, but they’ve been up against Detroit’s scoring lines and have yet to be exposed.

For Detroit, the interest level. The “must-win” attitude of March is gone again, they’ve regressed back to the team who feels entitled to a long playoff run without doing any work for it. Henrik Zetterberg is bringing his A-game and Datsyuk is playing well, but everyone else has been disappointing at least for one game. Specifically the defense — one of the best top fours in the league on paper have been nothing but sloppy. Full credit to Phoenix because this is right in line with their game plan. But Detroit has seen this before and they’ve beaten it before. It’s by no means an easy task, but for the near-hilarious disparity in playoff experience between these two teams, they’re coming out of the first three games looking like the little kids who are out of their league and Phoenix is reminiscent of Chicago last season, who also didn’t seem too concerned with the fact that everyone says they’re not experienced enough for a long playoff run.

Keep in mind these were sent to me prior to today’s game. I didn’t have a chance to get them posted before the game so some of the items of course are a little off after tonights game. I hope you enjoyed seeing it form the other side. I thought he did a very nice job of breaking everything down. Thanks Kyle and good luck to your team but I really hope Phoenix wins the series. 🙂