As you likely know by now, today is the day the Pirates have to finalize their 40-man roster for the Winter Meetings and the Rule 5 draft. Both WTM and Tim have good preveiws (Bucs Dugout, Pirates Prospects) and I’d recommend that you read them, because the Pirates have quite a few decisions to make today.
As it stands right now, the Bucs have 34 players on the 40-man roster after Brandon Wood was outrighted and claimed by the Rockies yesterday. It’s probably safe to assume that the Pirates will leave a roster spot open for a Rule 5 pick, which means that the Pirates will be adding at least five players to the roster and possibly more (Matt Pagnozzi or Jason Jaramillo, Xavier Paul, and Pedro Ciriaco could all be removed from the roster, while Jose Veras, Ross Ohlendorf, Garrett Jones, and a few other guys are potential non-tenders that could be outrighted a bit early). That’s a huge amount of the 40-man, when you really get down to it.
There are a few no-brainers here. Starling Marte will certainly need to be added and it’s hard to imagine any circumstance under which Rudy Owens and Justin Wilson aren’t added, too. That’s already three of the five spots, with Matt Hague, Jordy Mercer, Andrew Lambo, Tim Alderson, Brett Lorin, Aaron Pribanic, Diego Moreno, and Duke Welker still left to consider. I would add Quincy Latimore, but then I’d be immediately taking him off the list because he doesn’t have enough power to balance his .308 career minor league OBP and it’d be pretty shocking to see him drafted.
So, let’s start our 39-man roster at 34, then remove Matt Pagnozzi and Xavier Paul from the roster (32). Marte, Wilson, and Owens all go on, which brings us to 35. We’ve got four slots left. I think the Pirates have to give Mercer and Hague roster spots because really, the Pirates are probably going to need them on the big league roster in 2012. Mercer might be the best shortstop of the d’Arnaud/Ciriaco/Mercer trio and risking letting him go at this point wouldn’t be very bright. Hague, meanwhile, could be useful as a platoon first baseman if the Pirates play Garrett Jones or some scrap-heap reject lefty at first base (Branyan!). They’re both close enough to the Majors with interesting enough skills that they could be lost in the draft, even if neither is a super-prospect. Remember: the Pirates drafted Josh Rodriguez last year; someone would probably be willing to take a flyer on Mercer or Hague.
Now we’re at 37, which leaves a spot for two out of Lambo, Alderson, Lorin, Pribanic, Moreno, and Welker. Lambo, as usual, is a difficult call. He’s only 23 and he just had a decent year in Double-A, but he’s been a Double-A regular since 2009 and he flamed out in Triple-A in 2011. He’s still a semi-prospect, so it’s possible that someone will draft him and hide him to try and reap future rewards, but he might be really tough to hide given his performance with Indy in 2010. Alderson creates kind of the same pinch, he’s still really young and projectible and he was really good early in 2011 after being moved to the bullpen, but he flamed out in the second half. If I’m the Pirates, I’d take my risks and leave him unprotected, but if they do so I’m also pretty sure that someone will take a chance on him.
So, we’ve got two spots for Lorin, Pribanic, Moreno, and Welker now. I’d protect Lorin and I think the Pirates will, too. He’s a big guy (6’7″) that has interesting stuff and very good numbers in the low minors, but health problems have dictated that he was still in the low minors at the age of 24 last year. The Pirates probably could’ve moved him to Altoona last year and didn’t, which may be indicative of something. Still, if he’s healthy in 2012 he could be a quick riser and find himself in Triple-A or even Pittsburgh late in the year and he’s old enough that someone may take a flier on him based on the idea that his age makes him more advanced than most guys that haven’t risen above Advanced-A. Pribanic, meanwhile, strikes me as someone the Pirates might protect (think Mike Crotta), but who’d I’d be slow to hold on to. He’s a sinkerballer that doesn’t do much else, so as a result he’s got a decent minor league ERA but a Zach Duke strikeout rate (a strikeout every other inning) even as a 24-year old in Double-A.
Lorin brings us to 38, so we’ve got one final spot for the two relievers, Welker and Moreno. Moreno was really intriguing back in 2009 when he struck out more than a hitter an inning with West Virginia, but he’s had behavioral problems and control problems and at 24, still spent some time in Advanced-A this year and struggled at Double-A. Welker, meanwhile, was the second round pick way back in 2007 and seemed hopelessly lost at sea until this year, when he suddenly he found some control and became an effective reliever for Bradenton and Altoona. If I were picking between the two, I’d take Welker because he’s improving whereas I think Moreno may have stagnated, but it’s not exactly an either/or because Alderson or Lambo or Pribanic could all go in this spot, too. It’s also possible that the Pirates will open up more roster spots (no one would really miss Ciriaco, I don’t think, and Ohlendorf and Veras a pretty likely to be gone in a few weeks anyway) or they could fill the roster to 40 just not make a pick this year, since they haven’t had much success in the draft since the miracle Evan Meek pick a few years ago.
Regardless, though, I think that Marte, Owens, Wilson, Mercer, and Hague should all be protected and I’d take Lorin, too. After that, it’s a bit more of a crapshoot and it probably matters a little bit less, but I’d expect the Pirates to at least take a couple guys out of the Lambo/Alderson/Pribanic/Welker/Moreno pool, if not more.
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