Baseball’s most misunderstood event is set to take place during the upcoming Winter Meetings on December 7th through the 10th. That’s right, the ever confusing Rule 5 draft will take place during the off-season’s most exciting period. The reality of the Rule 5 draft is that it’s not that confusing at all, but it is a unique event in American sports, as no other major sport has a draft where teams select players from other teams.
The Rule 5 draft is in place to ensure that teams do not stockpile players in the minor leagues that other teams would be willing to use on their major league roster. To prevent this, Major League Baseball has placed certain requirements upon teams with regard to the age a player was signed and the length of time they have spent in the organization’s lower levels. To be eligible for selection in the Rule 5 draft, a player must have been signed at or before the age of 18 and spent 5 years with the organization. Or they must be 19 or older when they were signed and spent 4 years with the organization. A team can protect eligible players from being drafted by placing them on the 40-man roster.
For a team to be eligible to participate in the draft, it must have room on the 40-man roster. As it sits today, the Indians’ roster is at 36 players, leaving them with 4 open spots with which they could use to protect or draft players. It is more likely that the Indians are going to do much more protecting than drafting this year, as there are a number of talented players that are eligible to be drafted that the Indians will likely want to keep around.
The first of these eligible players that are likely to be added to the 40-man roster is the first round pick of the 2012 draft, Tyler Naquin. Naquin hasn’t quite lived up to the hype that surrounds most first round selections, but he has still been productive in his past few seasons in the minors. Naquin spent the majority of last season in AAA Columbus when he wasn’t on the disabled list, so there is a great chance that he makes his MLB debut in the upcoming 2016 season. It’s likely that Naquin will only amount to a 4th outfielder in his career, but with the uncertainty surrounding the Indians’ outfield next season he will be a valuable commodity based on his defensive abilities alone.
The second player that I predict will be added to the 40-man roster is one of the biggest surprise prospects in the entire organization. Michael Clevinger has made perhaps the biggest jump in the organization’s prospect rankings after coming over from Anaheim in exchange for Vinnie Pestano, in what may go down as one of the bigger highway robberies of the Shapiro-Antonetti era, Clevinger was perhaps the best minor league pitcher in the organization in 2015. Showcasing tremendous talent that landed him a spot of the AAA Columbus Clippers’ Governor’s Cup-winning roster. Electric, near MLB-ready arms, are a valuable commodity in baseball. It is quite possible he could be selected by a team in the MLB-phase of the draft, which would put him on the selecting team’s 25-man roster, if he weren’t to be protected. Regardless, he would certainly be taken in the MiLB phases so his protection is a necessity and likely to occur.
The final player who I think is most likely to be protected is Jeff Johnson. The former Rubberduck closer had a tremendous season in 2015, appearing in 51 games while posting a 1.05 ERA. Johnson finished the season in Columbus like Clevinger, as a part of the playoff roster. While only a reliever, the league-wide shift in focus to a deep bullpen makes keeping him around all the more important.
If these three are to be protected that would put the 40-man roster at 39, leaving 1 more spot for the Indians to protect a player or make a pick in the draft. There are still a number of players that the Indians could choose to protect that are Rule 5 eligible, so the Indians very well could choose to protect one more player.
Shawn Morimando is perhaps the most likely of the remaining eligible players that the Indians could choose to protect by adding him to the roster. Morimando has had a very successful minor league career to this point, though his ceiling as a potential MLB player may only amount to that of a back-end starter at best. I wouldn’t be surprised if he is added to the 40-man, but I feel it is less likely than the aforementioned three.
Some other interesting Rule 5 eligibles this season are James Ramsey, Dorssys Paulino, Luis Lugo, Luigi Rodriguez, Ronny Rodriguez, Claudio Bautista, Yhoxian Medina, and Joe Sever. Of this group, Ramsey is perhaps the most likely to be selected by another team. Ramsey is a former first round pick so it’s possible a team could see his potential as worthy of a 40-man roster spot. After Ramsey’s poor performance this past season, it’s all but certain that he will not see any time with the big league ballclub and is very unlikely to be added to the 40-man roster. Ronny Rodriguez and Dorssys Paulino were once highly rated prospects in the Indians’ organization and both had tremendous bounce-back seasons in 2015. They present interesting Rule 5 cases, however, because neither has played at a higher level than AA and a team may not be willing to add them to the 40-man if they aren’t closer to being big league ready.
The deadline for team’s to protect players from the draft by adding them to the 40-man roster is November 20th. We will soon see which moves the Indians will make. A number of notable players have been selected in the Rule 5 draft and gone on to amazing careers including Johan Santana, Jose Bautista, Bobby Bonilla, and Jayson Werth. Despite the relatively low-key nature of this draft, many great things can come from it or be lost in it.
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