The current Cleveland Indians 40 man roster sits at 35 men and while that may seem like extra room for free agents, at the moment, those spots should be reserved for the Rule 5 draft. On November 20th, all rosters in Major League Baseball need to be set for the draft which will occur during the Winter Meetings during the second week of December. While the Indians have generally been silent in recent years for the Rule 5 draft, remaining completely uninvolved in 2013 and losing two players while taking none in 2012. In fact, the last player of note who was drafted and maintained by the Indians was Hector Ambriz from the Diamondbacks in 2009. Despite this, the Rule 5 draft remains a great place to find that diamond in the rough.
Of course, before looking at who to draft, they will have to decide who to protect. Any player on the 40 man roster is safe from being chosen in the Rule 5 draft and the Indians were burned recently in 2012 when they lost T.J. McFarland to the Orioles and Hector Rondon to Cubs. The fact that the drafting team needs to keep their newly acquired player on the 25 man roster for the entire following season keeps teams from stealing lower level players. The Indians have five players that could be under considerable risk of being taken this year, coincidentally the same amount of open spots on the 40 man roster. Here they are in order of most likely to be taken to least.
Shawn Armstrong
Armstrong is the perfect Rule 5 pick as he is a short reliever at the AAA level. Armstrong just turned 24 and had a breakout season in 2014 posting a 2.12 ERA in AA Akron before being promoted to Columbus late in the season. While he was less effective there (3 ER, 4 K in 5 IP), because he could be safely stowed in a Major League bullpen he would be a solid pick my almost any team. If a team had a particularly weak relief corps, Armstrong would be a solid, cheap fill in and by the end of the year, could possibly become an important member.
Cody Anderson
While Armstrong is a lower ceiling player with little risk to a team right now, Anderson is an extremely high ceiling player that would bring a ton of risk to a team drafting him this year. His breakout season was in 2013 with Advanced A Carolina when he posted a 2.34 ERA in 23 starts, striking out 112 to just 33 walks, but he regressed some when advancing to Akron in the past season. This year, he went just 4-11 with a 5.44 ERA in 125.2 innings. Most likely, the Indians will keep him in AA to start 2015 and move him up once he regains his form and the fact that this is the most logical strategy is why he is unlikely to be taken in the Rule 5 draft this year. While he also could be stored in the bullpen on a Major League roster in 2015, that would hurt his development and increase the time until he is really ready to be a Major League starter.
Tony Wolters
Wolters has had an interesting path from being drafted as a short stop to becoming a top Tribe prospect as a second baseman to now being an almost forgotten about catcher. He just finished his second season of play in the Arizona Fall League as he works on this transition. After impressive offensive seasons in 2011 and 2012, his numbers have fallen off some in the past two seasons, possibly due to the position change. He is still capable of playing short stop, second base and now catcher, so he could be a solid steal for some team as a super utility man. The initial reason he was switched to catcher was because of the extreme depth at short stop and second base for the Indians, including Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Erik Gonzalez and many more high ceiling prospects at lower levels, and because of this, he could be a legitimate infield prospect for another team.
Jordan Smith
Like Wolters, Smith is also participating in the AFL this year after finishing a full season in Akron. He is a well rounded outfielder who can play all three positions with a little speed and a little power. Smith has put up pretty good numbers against the multi-level talent in the AFL and this could give a team enough confidence to take a flier on him as a fourth outfielder. Like Wolters at short stop, the Indians have a lot of mid to upper level outfield prospects, including two first round picks in Clint Frazier and Tyler Naquin, so losing him wouldn’t be a huge deal. Since it is unlikely that any team would take such a low level outfielder without an obvious All-Star future, the Indians can save a roster spot by not protecting Smith.
Ryan Merritt
In a similar position to Cody Anderson last year, Merritt just finished his break-out season with the Mudcats. Last season, he finished 13-3 with a 2.58 ERA in 160.1 innings. Just like Anderson as well, he can be expected to lose some dominance when advancing to AA next year. There are certainly more Major League ready starters available in the draft this season, so Merritt should be safe even without 40 man protection.
As far as drafting new players to the team, the Indians will likely be silent again. Since they are returning all but one player from the 2014 squad, there is little room for what would essentially be a replacement level player on the Major League team. If the Indians do decide to trade from strengths, particularly at the bullpen or middle infield level, it could open up something, but it is hard to believe they would be able to obtain a player better than the available replacements already in the system. Assuming multiple relievers were traded, they could possibly grab one pitcher, but reasonably, there simply isn’t any room for Rule 5 additions.
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