As analytics has essentially pervaded NHL front offices and hockey journalism, it is almost impossible to read or hear hockey commentary or analysis these days without some reference to a player’s underlying numbers and puck-possession proxies.
Thanks to the emergence of analytics and the increased acceptance of their value in hockey conversations, one of the new hot button issues is the game outside of the game: the NHL front office arm’s race to hire some of the brightest analytical hockey minds and add to their hockey operations department.
In my appearance on TSN 1200‘s ‘Advanced Chats’ almost two weeks ago, Ian Mendes asked me to offer some opinion on whether the Senators should be more invested in analytics.
To reiterate for those who never listened to the ‘Advanced episode (which I encourage you to do by following this link), I simply explained that it’s impossible to know how invested the Senators are in analytics for a few reasons.
Without knowing who the Senators are employing and how competent that person is (note: the rumour is that it’s a graduate mathematics student out of the University of Ottawa) and without knowing what kind of information he or she may be presenting to the front office and/or coaching staff or how receptive the organization is and how it implements this information into their decision-making, all we can do as outsiders is evaluate what the organization does by looking at their transactions, lineup decisions and player usage patterns.
Over the past few seasons, no player’s usage bothered the Senators’ analytical community quite like Patrick Wiercioch.
Despite some excellent possession proxies and numbers suggesting that when he is on the ice, he frequently makes those around him better, it always felt like Wiercioch took a backseat to shittier alternatives because he does not possess the rugged traits that people tend to desire in a defenceman.
What’s interesting about Wiercioch is that as soon as he replaced Jared Cowen and played regularly alongside Cody Ceci, the team’s second pairing was bolstered.
Despite the team’s surprising run, it did not stop Bryan Murray from listening to calls on his players at the 2015 NHL trade deadline. One of the players who was reportedly five minutes away from being dealt at the deadline was Wiercioch.
Today, Sportsnet‘s Elliotte Friedman outlined what the prospective return for Wiercioch was.
4. Two other Avalanche targets to watch. It’s not a secret they would like to add defencemen. Last year, they came very close to a Patrick Wiercioch deal with Ottawa. (I believe it was for Stefan Elliott and a third-round pick.) It fell apart around the trade deadline. When Wiercioch was a healthy scratch last week, I wondered if anything re-kindled, but it doesn’t sound like it. Also, another source indicated Colorado and Toronto spent time trying to put together a deal around O’Reilly and Jake Gardiner. Obviously, it didn’t happen and I’m not sure, under Toronto’s new regime, if there would be any kind of match.
Obviously with Wiercioch struggling to find his game, today’s revelation is going to open the door for Wiercioch’s detractors to bemoan the fact that he wasn’t moved.
Personally, the fact that he isn’t playing well, but still has some of the best underlying numbers on the Senators’ defence means that any improvement in his performance can provide big dividends, especially since there is reasonable room for growth. (Mind you, when the alternatives are Jared Cowen and Mark Borowiecki, it’s not like the bench to clear is very high.)
The most important takeaway from Friedman’s article for me is that Wiercioch’s trade value wasn’t that high, even when he was playing well by last year’s deadline.
Perhaps the Senators felt there was great value in shedding what was remaining on Wiercioch’s contract, but Elliott and a third rounder seems like a bargain. With Wiercioch struggling now, his trade value is only going to be worse.
If teams are looking for a puck-moving defenceman, Wiercioch represents a great buy-low option. He could probably had for a song and if he does go, it’s just going to be another bullet in the chamber for cynical fans who question this organization’s ability to comprehensively use analytics to influence their decision-making.
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