While the original intent of this column was to be a Sabres post-draft wrap-up, the crazy day that was yesterday means we will expand this column a bot to discuss not only the Sabres, but the three big transactions from yesterday.
Taylor Hall
Let’s start with this trade as it is likely the smallest of the day. Edmonton traded Taylor Hall to New Jersey for Adam Larsson. Hall is still just 24 years old has 4 seasons of over 20 goals in his 6 pro seasons. The seasons he didn’t score 20, he was on pace to, but injuries shortened his season. In fact, the biggest knock on Hall is how much time he has missed. He has only played 70 games twice in 6 pro seasons. Still, he averages .86 points per game played, and this is for a guy not yet in his prime. Taylor Hall actually was 3rd in goals by a LW in theNHL last year behind Benn and Ovie. In return, EDM get Larsson. Larsson was a top 2 Dman in NJ last season. He averaged over 22 minutes of ice time a game and was a plus 15. Nobody doubts that he is a high quality NHL defenseman, but the return seems light for Hall. The Devils add almost 2 million more in salary, and EDM had way too many forwards, and not enough D, but it just seems that this isn’t enough in return for a player of Hall’s caliber. I feel as though Chiarelli made this deal before, and we all know how Seguin turned out once he left Boston. I give a clear win here to NJ.
Of interest in this deal is that EDM supposedly called Buffalo asking for Risto in return for Hall. This was met with a “no”, and a very quick one at that I imagine. EDM had to get a D at some point, and it seems of Ellerbe, Hall, and Nugent-Hopkins, that Hall brought them what they deemed the best return. The only way to look at this from EDM perspective is that they are going to have lots of young guys to eventually pay, and would eventually have to make some decisions on some, but I don’t know they had to make that decision now.
Weber for Subban
Again, another trade which in my opinion has a clear winner. I love what Nashville did here. They traded away a really good, but soon to be 31 year old D, for a 27 year old D, who right now I think is the better of the two, with a better contract. I know some would argue Weber is better, and that’s fine. Even if we say they are roughly equal (though they are different types of players), I would rather take the guy at the front end of his prime instead of the guy at the back end. It seems the MTL organization grew tired of Subban’s personality. Subban was beloved in the community and in the locker room, so this seems to be an up top decision. Additionally, a fun and outspoken player like Subban is a perfect fit in Nashville as the face of the franchise where he can help sell the game, whereas MTL needs little help selling the game. Still, I think this is a trade Canadiens GM Bergevin will be looked back on as the loser of this deal.
Stamkos
I know this signing was disappointing for Sabre fans who held out hope that the best UFA would sign with Buffalo. There were even rumors that Buffalo was going to throw 12 million per at this guy. First, he’s a really, really good player. While he certainly would’ve improved the Sabres, I don’t love the price tag. From Stamkos’ perspective the deal he signed in Tampa makes sense. He’s on a team the will have a few years window to win a cup, and in a state with no income tax. To put that in perspective, to make the money equal, Buffalo would’ve had to pay Stamkos 12 million per for 7 years to get the same total contract value that Tampa got at 8/68 (I’m aware there is one less year, but I’m speaking of total value). Playing in a state with no income tax for a team that is going to be a perennial cup contender in a warm weather city where he can still be somewhat anonymous? Sign me up. Staying in Tampa always has made the most sense for Stamkos and that’s exactly what he did.
From Buffalo’s perspective, I think having good players, and having lots of depth are what wins you a cup. We have lots of young guys who will develop into those kinds of guys (Jack, Sam, Risto) and are already paying ROR big money. Yes, Stamkos would be an improvement for this team, but for that money, I think Buffalo could add a few more guys and really provide this team some depth. More on that in a second.
Buffalo and the Draft
It’s hard to call this draft anything but a letdown. While not anyone’s fault, I think we all went into this weekend expecting a big trade, and nothing really happened, so by nature we all feel let down. We had grand visions of signing Stamkos and trading for Cam Fowler. Instead we get neither. Let’s look at Buffalo’s 3 biggest moves however.
Buffalo traded a third round pick to Nashville for the rights to Jimmy Vesey. They have until August 15th to sign him or lose him for nothing. While this trade will ultimately be judged by whether or not Vesey is signed, it is worth the risk. Buffalo had 3 3rd round picks, and to potentially get a player the caliber of Vesey here, it’s a no brainer. Vesey won the Hobey Baker (hockey Heisman) award at Harvard this past season. He is NHL ready at 6’3” and 205 and can play at both ends of the ice. Additionally, he has several connections to Eichel. They are both BOS area kids who played summer league together and share an agent. You would hope Jack can recruit Vesey to sign here. This would be an absolute home run trade if he signs.
The big news out of draft weekend was the trade of former first round pick Mark Pysyk to FLA for Dmitry Kulikov. I’m mostly indifferent with this trade. Advanced analytics people love Pysyk, and I do very much believe in advanced stats. The problem here is I’ve also watched most every Sabre game, and the best thing I can say is that I rarely noticed Pysyk. Fans of his will scream it’s because he was buried on the third line, while others will say it’s because he never showed anything and the advanced stats loved him because he rarely played against the top 2 lines from other teams. He was supposed to be a guy with a solid O game, but he totaled just 11 points last season. Kulikov is clearly much more physical and will likely be a top 4 D in Buffalo. The elephant in the room here is the expansion draft as well. I think we will see several deals on paper which don’t add up, only to start to understand them once we sit down and really think about what players teams will likely be able to protect and which they won’t. Kulikov is an UFA at the end of the season, so BUF won’t have to protect him. I don’t know about the future, but at least for next season, Kulikov is an upgrade. Also, don’t forget the Sabres moved up in round 2 and got Rasmus Asplund with the pick. Asplund is a center who has some World Juniors experience for team Sweden. His LW on that team? None other than Alex Nylander.
Nylander
Many were surprised by the Nylander pick. Several thought that BUF was going to go D, and with several good ones to choose from, this pick may have surprised some, except it didn’t. In the days leading up to the draft, you started to hear his name attached to BUF more often. The selection makes sense. He is a speedy and skilled W, who can finish, as well as create. One other thing to consider, he is actually eligible to play in the OHL, AHL, or NHL next season. This means BUF can place him wherever it thinks he will best develop. He does need to add some size at only 175 pounds, but he was compared by many to Sam Reinehart.
Free Agency
So now that Stamkos is off the table, what is BUF to do? BUF is reportedly in talks with Kyle Okposo (as are several teams). It will likely take 7 million plus per year to sin him, and I’m just not sure that’s where I would spend my money. I would rather see BUF try to use that Stamkos money to sign a few vets to shorter deals. I would like to hear BUF in on Kris Versteeg (only 30 years old), Buffalo native Lee Stempniak (maybe finish his last 2 years at home?) on O, or a guy like Luke Schenn or Eric Gryba on D. I’d love to see if I could get one of these younger D on a short contract to see if they have something to prove to justify a bigger payday at a later date. My point is I’d like BUF to add some quality depth. I fully expect the young guys to continue to develop, but we need legit NHL players right now to compliment them.
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