The Sacramento Kings have whiffed on the draft in recent years. Do a new year and a new pick mean a chance for success?
No NBA franchise embodies “dysfunction” more than the Sacramento Kings. The Minnesota Timberwolves have a long playoff drought, the New York Knicks have struggled to be average, and the Los Angeles Clippers are only now enjoying the first true success in franchise history.
But the Kings? They’ve been bad, they are bad, and there’s no reason to think they’ll be anything but bad for the foreseeable future.
After firing yet another coach in George Karl at the end of the season, the Kings have now entrusted the helm to Dave Joerger, formerly the head coach of the Memphis Grizzlies. The team also knows it has DeMarcus Cousins, Rudy Gay, and Willie Cauley-Stein under contract for next season, but it’s unclear what that trip brings to the table.
What the Kings need is a solid draft, one where they draft a real blue-chip player to slot alongside DeMarcus Cousins in the pecking order. Unfortunately, the Kings have shown no ability to evaluate talent in the years since drafting Cousins, striking out on nearly every draft pick.
Hindsight is 20/20, so it’s much easier to see the mistakes Sacramento made with the perspective of years. But every season the Kings have followed the same pattern: overvalue current players, identify area of “need”, draft overrated prospect to fit that need.
Going into this year’s draft, is there hope for Sacramento fans that the Kings can use preparation and scouting to draft a real talent? Probably not. There is a long history of Sacramento failing on draft day; why would 2016 be any different?
Dismal Draft History
The Sacramento Kings selected DeMarcus Cousins with the 5th pick of the First Round in the 2010 NBA Draft. That was a smart decision as Cousins has gone on to be a perennial All Star and All-NBA considerant. Then the smart left. Each first round pick the Kings made has flopped compared to their peers, and a better player was available at the position they picked every time.
2011: The Pick – Jimmer Fredette. Who Was Available – Klay Thompson
2012: The Pick – Thomas Robinson. Who Was Available – Harrison Barnes (and Damian Lillard)
2013: The Pick – Ben McLemore. Who Was Available – Giannis Antetokounmpo, C.J. McCollum
2014: The Pick – Nik Stauskas. Who Was Available – Zach LaVine, Rodney Hood
2015: The Pick – Willie Cauley-Stein. Who Was Available – Justice Winslow, Myles Turner
If even one of those picks hit, the Kings have a completely different future ahead of them. If (through an impossible combination of events) they picked correctly on all of them, this team could be fielding a rotation of Damian Lillard, Klay Thompson, Giannis, Justice Winslow, and DeMarcus Cousins, with Zach LaVine coming off of the bench. That’s not a moribund franchise without purpose – that’s a serious contender.
But the Kings picked wrong every time. Fredette is out of the league, Robinson and Stauskus were fringe rotation players on bad teams, and McLemore struggled to stay in George Karl’s rotation in Sacramento. Willie Cauley-Stein has received praise from his coaches and teammates, but would the Kings not prefer the levels that Winslow or Turner played at this season?
Years of poor play are supposed to grant a team a roster of high-end talent. All the Kings got out of it was broken promised and crushed dreams.
How To Get It Right
There is an easy, three-step process to choosing the right player in this year’s NBA Draft to kick-start their offseason. The first? Don’t trust themselves.
Clearly the Kings have struggled to evaluate talent, or they would have more than two rotation players from their draft picks. Whatever methods they have used in the past for college and international scouting need to be overhauled. They need to bring in outside help. It wouldn’t hurt them to check out our draft material either – The Lottery Mafia has a better track record than the Kings!
Second, the Kings need to stop drafting for need and simply take the best-player available. They have consistently reached on players who fit a “need” on their roster, as if the Kings were one hole away from contention. When a team is bare of talent, the necessary course of action is securing the best player available, irregardless of position.
Last season, Cauley-Stein fit the Kings’ need of a shot-blocker. But with Stanley Johnson, Emmanuel Mudiay, Winslow, Devin Booker, Cameron Payne, and Turner all still on the board, was he the best player available? Again, there is danger in using hindsight for these sorts of evaluations, but at the time draft analysts questioned the move.
The third step the Kings need to take is to stop overreacting to the NCAA Tournament. College basketball’s postseason is exciting and dramatic, and it does provide a high-pressure environment to watch some of the top prospects play. But a player who gets hot for three or four of his last games in college is not necessarily better because his hot streak happened at the end of his season and not the middle.
Thomas Robinson? Led Kansas to the National Championship Game. Same for Nik Stauskas (alongside other help, of course). Willie Cauley-Stein made the Final Four the year he was drafted. The Kings cannot simply take Buddy Hield or Brice Johnson (I jest, I jest) with the 8th pick because they went to the Final Four.
What’s The Pick?
Mock drafts are all over the place on whom the Kings could take at #8. Part of that is the general uncertainty of the draft – no one knows which seven players will be selected before them. Another part is that rational thought cannot be applied to Sacramento at any point in the draft process.
The latest mock draft at The Lottery Mafia has the Kings taking Marquese Chriss out of Washington. An athletic power forward with shooting range, he is a player with a seemingly limitless ceiling, and similarly limitless floor. Unfortunately, that matches the profile of too many recent Sacramento picks. They can’t afford to have another top-10 pick flame out completely.
If the board falls a certain way and either Kris Dunn or Jamal Murray falls to the Kings, both would be tremendous value at #8. Dunn is long, athletic, and thrives on defense, something the Kings have lacked in a point guard since…………
Sorry, Basketball Reference just froze. Weird.
Murray brings elite shooting to the table, as well as the easy ability to play off-the-ball if the Kings retain Rajon Rondo. Either would be a solid pick at #8 and have the happy benefit of fitting long-term needs for the Kings.
Jaylen Brown is perhaps the best athlete in the draft, with the ability to leap out of the building to secure a rebound or slam home a fastbreak dunk. He struggled with his shot and motor at Cal, but if he locks in at the NBA level he could be a steal at #8, where a number of draft analysts have him slotted.
If both Dunn and Jamal Murray are off the board, one of the fastest-rising players in the draft is Dejounte Murray out of Washington. Similar to his former teammate Marquese Chriss, Murray has boom-or-bust potential. But his upside is tremendous, and his current weaknesses – shooting percentage and turnover rate – are something every young guard struggles with. If the Kings decide to swing for the fences, Murray might be a good pick.
Ultimately, the Kings can almost not go wrong at #8. The tier of players below Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram is almost flat; some may have Kris Dunn and Jaylen Brown at the top of the group, others may have Chriss or one of the Murrays. Players such as Timothe Luwawu and Henry Ellenson haven’t even been mentioned.
The problem is that the Kings always do go wrong. Will yet another coach help to right the ship? Can Sacramento keep themselves from making yet another doomed selection? While another year means another bite at the apple, this writer is not convinced anything will change in Sacramento. Tough luck for the unlucky gentleman selected #8 on Draft Night.
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