The Saints are looking to jump to 8-2 and maintain control of the 2nd seed in the NFC playoffs with a very important home game today against the 49ers. There's a lot at stake in this one at pure face value, but when you add in recent history it is a little big personal as well. We as fans feel it and I know the players feel it too. This is, in my opinion, the toughest opponent the Saints have faced to date and it will be an extremely physical contest. The Saints will have to scratch and claw their way to a win in this one, but as long as they pull it off I don't care about style points. Here are the five things I'll be looking for:
1. Can the Saints keep the 49ers run game in check?
Frank Gore and company have had tons of success against the Saints. In his last four starts againts the Saints, Frank Gore is averaging 5.38 yards per carry. That just can't happen. The 49ers' offense is all about their physical rushing attack. If you take away the run game against them, which is extremely hard to do, it becomes near impossible for the 49ers to win. The Saints, by contrast, have really struggled stopping the run this year. In their last two games DeMarco Murray and Chris Ivory both ran extremely well on them. The Saints average giving up 5.0 yards per carry which is tied with the Chiefs for dead last in the league (funny because both are top 10 defenses). The 49ers are 4th in the league in rushing and 7th in yards per carry. On paper, the 49ers rushing attack vs. the Saints run defense is a very favorable matchup for the visitors. I think they will try to milk this all day long, and if the Saints can surprise everyone and place that matchup in neutral then it changes everything.
2. Can the Saints run the ball?
The last two times these teams have played the Saints ran for 37 and 59 yards, respectively. In each game they averaged 2.6 and 2.8 yards per carry. Put simply, the 49ers have completely shut down the Saints' run game. I've got a little hope based on how good the Saints were last week, but the Cowboys have the worst defense in the NFL so let's be realistic. Thanks to that game it moved the Saints up to 22nd overall in yards per carry, which is still mediocre, and 23rd in yards per game on the ground. By contrast the 49ers allow 3.9 yards per carry defensively (10th best) and they are 12th in yards per game. So they are better than average stopping the run, but maybe not quite as good as they've been in years past. Life gets A LOT easier for the Saints on offense if they can get the run game going. At the very least, it would be nice to average more than 3 yards per carry and get 80+ yards rushing. That will also keep the Saints' pass/run ratio more respectable like it was last week, as oppose to say the Jets' game. After Mark Ingram went nuts last week I'm really curious about his follow up performance.
3. Can the Saints keep the turnover margin close?
I know talking about the turnover margin seems like I'm being master of the obvious. You're probably thinking "yes, we know the stats, the team that wins the turnover margin has a much greater % chance to win the game". But the way this game sets up matchup wise, it's highly likely the 49ers will win the turnover battle. I'm resigned to it. The 49ers have a safe ball control rushing attack offense, and they take care of the football. The Saints throw a ton, take risks and sometimes it leads to turnovers. When you look at how this game has played out the last two years, the Saints' lack of a running game has put even greater emphasis on these team's differences. The 49ers stop the run, they hit big and they rush the passer well. If the Saints are throwing every play the law of averages suggest they will turn it over at a higher volume in this game than the 49ers will. So I'm just hoping the turnover margin is close, like maybe 2 to 1 or something. And maybe no pick sixes this time either, ok Drew? If by some miracle the Saints manage to win the turnover battle I think that's an even greater advantage than usual.
4. How does Charles Brown hold up?
As the offensive line had by far their best game of the season last week, it became clear to me that even as they play well as a unit, Brown remains the weak link. He's the guy that's most often getting beat, getting Brees hit, or getting flagged. He hasn't been a disaster this season, but he hasn't been that great either. Anytime the Saints face a defense of this caliber he's by far the one starter on the team that makes me the most nervous. He's the one guy on the Saints that I wonder – is this all too big for him? I feel good about the starters top to bottom on this team with Brown being the lone exception. I'm still waiting for him to have what I consider a great game. So far it's been a bunch of "ok" games mixed in with a couple bad ones.
5. Does Garrett Hartley bounce back?
Hartley has missed 4 of his last 6 kicks, three of those coming in the Superdome. In fact, two of those three in the Superdome were inside 40 yards. In a game like this there is no margin for error. You look back at the Alabama-LSU game which was so painful for many of us, and you think about a game of that magnitude where both teams are so talented. You have to take advantage of the opportunities. You just can't shoot yourself in the foot. I think specifically about that fumble LSU had on the one yard line on their first drive as they were about to take a 7-0 lead. That fumble changed the entire complexion of the game. One missed field goal will very easily be the difference in this game. Hartley can't afford the slump he's in to carry over into this game, otherwise it will cost the Saints very dearly. The pressure is on Hartley to snap out of this bad stretch or the Saints could be looking for a new kicker.
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