Gameday!!! Finally, it's here! I feel like I've been waiting for this day for a month since the last game. Lots on the line tonight as the Saints will try to take the top record in the NFC off the hands of the Seahawks (by virtue of a tiebreaker). A loss, on the flipside, would put them two games back and down in the tiebreaker leaving it almost impossible to catch up for the top seed. A loss also leaves the Saints tied in the NFC South standings. So a win would go a long way towards the Saints' quest to a Super Bowl title and top overall seed in the NFC. Of course the stakes next week will be even higher but we'll worry about that when the time comes. The last time the Saints travelled to Seattle was in January of 2011 when the then 7-9 divisional champ Seahawks knocked the Saints out of the playoffs 41-36. The Seahawks didn't have Russell Wilson or the shut down defense they have now in that game, but the 131 yards rushing by Marshawn Lynch did the trick. Not that the game needs any reminder for Saints fans. Below are the five things I'll be looking for today.
1. Can the Saints slow down Marshawn Lynch?
I'm not even going to say stop, I just don't want him to go nuts like last time. Lynch is 6th in the NFL with 925 yards rushing coming into this game and absurdly he's only gotten significantly better since that playoff game. Last year he was 3rd in the NFL in rushing. Seattle's offense is based entirely around him. If the Saints can neutralize him a bit the Seattle offense will struggle to be as effective, because they use Lynch's success on the ground to set up the play action pass. Fortunately for the Saints it looks like Percy Harvin will be out, so while the Seahawks' offense is still a very good unit at least they'll be missing an explosive piece. More than anything I think the Saints need to take this opportunity to remember what happened in the playoffs, look for some payback, and bring down Lynch every chance they get with ferocious hits. We need you Akiem Hicks!
2. Can the Saints manage the weather and win playing a different style of football?
Lots of talk is out there about how the Saints play on the road, and a lot of it is misinformed. But there's a big difference between "going on the road" and playing in Seattle, in December, in ridiculously cold temperatures, with precipitation and wind. There is a chance for some rain and showers this afternoon in Seattle, but currently the forecast at kickoff is clear skies with a temperature of 36 degrees and almost no wind. So it could have been A LOT worse. The Saints should be able to throw a little bit in these conditions, although the cold weather will make the balls a little tougher to catch and the hits sting a bit more. The bottom line is the Saints will have to play more physical than usual, running the ball and stopping the run, to be able to win this game. So can they go into cold weather and play that way and win against a team that excels and is built at winning that way? In my opinion the odds are stacked against them a bit. Managing the Seattle crowd, notorious for being one of the loudest in the NFL, will also be a factor.
3. Can the Saints play a perfect, mistake free game?
It's going to take the Saints' best effort to win in Seattle against one of the very best teams in the NFL. That's where big special teams plays, turnovers and penalties can be the equalizer – even if the deck is ever so slightly stacked against the Saints. If the Saints can avoid the back breaking penalties and turnovers, they can win this game. That's what it will take, though. They will not be able to survive the same mistakes they made in the 49ers game. I believe this game will have no margin for error. To me this game is less about who makes the explosive touchdowns on offense and more about who avoids shooting themselves in the foot.
4. Will the Saints' offense be able to put up points?
Of course a win of any kind trumps style points but this offense has been underperforming all season. Most recently, the 23 point output against the 49ers and 17 point output against the Falcons have been disappointing. Yes both games were wins and that's all that matters, but this isn't the offense of 2009 or 2011. The Saints have been held to 23 points or less in 5 out of 11 games. Now they play the #2 defense in the entire league (Panthers are #1) that is giving up an average of just 16.3 points per game. So I'm worried the Seahawks, at home in cold weather, will be able to shut down the Saints' offense. I would love nothing more than to see them pour 30 points + on them. Not sure how realistic that is, but I'm hoping they can surprise us all.
5. Can the Saints end Russell Wilson's home win streak?
I am so sick of hearing about how "Russell Wilson never loses at home". If he's able to keep that intact going into the playoffs, the media will run that story even more ragged. This basically comes down to the end result, and I want the Saints to win for many other and better reasons than some stupid streak… but I have to admit I'd get a lot of satisfaction out of having the media shut up at the hands of the Saints. Next on the list is this absurd Cam Newton MVP movement. Russell Wilson is 13-0 in Seattle, as if the quarterback is solely responsible for a team winning. Especially in Seattle, where so much of his first two seasons have been all about "don't make mistakes, hand the ball off and let us play defense". Wilson is making more plays now and he's a good QB, don't get me wrong, but he's been getting more credit than he deserves with this streak. It will end sooner or later, and I'm hoping the Saints can oblige.
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