When the Saints started the year 5-0 and were already comfortably in control of the division, it really felt like they would run away with the NFC South. If you had told me we'd be sitting here ahead of week 13 at 9-2, I would have assumed the division would be all but locked up at this point. But that would not accounting for the improbable 7 game win streak Carolina is on. I have to admit, their run has come as a complete shock to me based on how poorly they played earlier this season… particularly when you consider how they won their last three games down the stretch. This team has the feel of the 2012 Falcons, maybe not being quite as good as their record indicates but finding ways to win. Now the Saints are in an all out dogfight race to the finish. What's likely at stake is the 2nd seed in the NFC. The only way the Saints can get the top seed is to win out, and that's a very tall order considering their schedule. By comparison, the Seahawks have a cupcake schedule that completely paves the way for the top seed. Even if Seattle loses to the Saints on Monday night at home, I believe they are still the favorite to end up with the NFC's top seed. So based on that the Saints and Panthers are likely playing for the 2nd seed, with the loser dropping to the 5th seed, as the top 4 seeds in the playoffs are reserved for division winners only. I say this because the Saints are already 3 games ahead of the 3rd seed (despite only being one ahead of the Panthers) and two games ahead of the 6 seed. So unless something crazy happens, the division title will mean the difference between the 2 seed (and a bye before a home game) and a 5 seed which would require 3 wins on the road in January to get to the Super Bowl. So what do we have to look forward to ahead?
Of course the Saints and Panthers still have to play each other twice and those two games will weigh heavily in determining the NFC South champ. But unless either team sweeps, in which case they would almost be guaranteed the division title, those two games could easily just cancel each other out and we'd be left with the same current one game separation. The remaining schedules are as so:
CAROLINA
vs. Tampa
@ New Orleans
vs. Jets
vs. New Orleans
@ Atlanta
NEW ORLEANS
@ Seattle
vs. Carolina
@ St. Louis
@ Carolina
vs. Tampa
When you consider how this stretch run shakes out, it's a tall order for the Saints. I realize these games are never a given and you still have to play them for a reason, but I view 3 of Carolina's five remaining games as gimmes. I don't see Tampa, who is playing better, giving them much trouble. And in week 17 I've just seen too many times teams that are done just give up. The Falcons have already given up in a lot of ways. There is no way they'll beat the Panthers. So basically the toughest games Carolina have left are two against the Saints, and three of their remaining five are at home. The Saints have three of five on the road, and only one game I consider a gimme in week 17 against Tampa. From a pure schedule point of view the advantage is squarely in Carolina's favor.
The good news is the Saints could lose at Seattle, and then split with Carolina but beat St. Louis and Tampa and they would own the tiebreaker by virtue of a better NFC record. That's assuming Carolina won out with the exception of the split with the Saints. The home game against Carolina does make me nervous. Carolina will travel to New Orleans after an easy game at home against Tampa on Sunday. The Saints will have to come back from Seattle on Monday Night/Tuesday morning to prepare on a short week. Like I said, though, the Saints could even lose these next two, and then win the last three to still get the 2nd seed.
This whole "Saints could still lose two, including one of them being a loss to Carolina" thing only works if the Saints beat Tampa in week 17. That game is a must, because if that's one of the two the Saints lose then they would have a worse record than Carolina in the division.
So a lot can still happen. But Carolina has the easier schedule, by far, and more home games. The Saints are clinging to a 1 game lead and a (possible) tiebreaker scenario if they split and beat Tampa to end up tied. If Carolina can falter this week at home against Tampa, obviously that changes everything, but don't count on it.
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