Let’s go ahead and come to terms with this now: The Atlanta Falcons are going to win the NFC South and clinch the #1 seed in the NFC, barring a miracle. Even if the Saints beat the Falcons in two weeks on Monday Night in Atlanta, which will be the most difficult accomplishment the Saints pull off all season, the Falcons are still going to win the division. The other two games the Falcons have are at Seattle against a Seahawks team that has looked beyond awful in recent weeks, and at home against Carolina. I think we all know how that Carolina game is going to go. So even if the Saints beat the Falcons, the best thing we can hope for, again barring a miracle, is a tie in the standings. Unfortunately for the Saints, a tie means the Falcons would get the advantage.
Here’s why: The first tiebreaker is head to head. If the Saints win in two weeks, that will be even. The next tiebreaker is division record. The Falcons are currently 4-0 and the Saints are 3-1. The best case scenario would be a tie there as well, assuming we beat both Atlanta and Tampa Bay (no given). This also assumes Atlanta beats Carolina, which, um, will happen. So it would come down to the next tiebreaker: COMMON OPPONENTS.
Assuming both the Saints and Falcons go 5-1 in the NFC South, those common opponents would be a wash. That leaves these games as the rest of the common opponents: Pittsburgh, Arizona, San Francisco, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Baltimore, St. Louis and Seattle. The Saints are 5-2 against those opponents with only Baltimore remaining. The Falcons are 6-1 against those opponents with only Seattle remaining. You get the idea: unless Atlanta loses to Seattle this weekend the Saints aren’t going to win the NFC South. Based on the way those two teams are currently playing (Seattle and Atlanta) – resting our hopes on a Seattle victory doesn’t sit very well. So again, let’s go ahead and come to terms with this now: The Atlanta Falcons are going to win the NFC South and clinch the #1 seed in the NFC.
So what does this mean for the Saints? It means the next two weeks are going to be perfect preparation for the playoffs, assuming we get there. They’ll go into a cold environment against a very good team that hits very hard in the Ravens, and they’ll go to Atlanta to face one of the hottest teams in the NFL. These are the types of games they’ll have to win in the playoffs this year if they want to go back to the Super Bowl. If you look at the possible destinations the Saints could travel to should they make a playoff run, they include: St. Louis, Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, New York and Philadelphia. Two are dome stadiums, the rest are bitter cold areas in the north. Baltimore may be cold, but that’s not even going to be close to as bad as these other cities come January. The Saints are built to win with good playing conditions because of their passing and speed, but they’ll have to win games in other ways to win in the playoffs this year. The road to the Super Bowl won’t come through New Orleans, which makes things incredibly more difficult. There’s no time like now to test the team, and it starts this week at Baltimore and next week at Atlanta. We’re going to find out in real short order what this team is made of.
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