The Saints are 7-0 at home this season and 3-4 on the road, so all the talk about the team's struggles away from the dome is clearly warranted. But who is mainly responsible for this? Is it offense? Is it defense? Is it special teams? I really wanted to dig deeper and see what specific areas are falling apart. There's lots of statistical data below and you want to make sure you always take that into account for Sports Interaction's NFL odds. Let's take a look:
Points scored:
In their seven home wins the Saints are averaging 32.9 points per game. In seven games on the road, the Saints are only scoring 18.4 points per game. You're talking about a difference of just over two touchdowns. That's astronomical.
Points given up:
The Saints are giving up 15.4 points at home, and only the 49ers hit 20 points against them. On the road, the Saints are giving up 23.1. So the disparity isn't as significant as the offense, but they are still giving up more than one touchdown more per game.
You add these two up and we're talking about a ~22 point swing between home and away. That is stunning. So let's dig even deeper:
ON OFFENSE:
The Saints are passing for an average of 335 yards per game at home on average, and rushing for 104 yards per game. The rushing numbers are grossly skewed by the 242 yards on the ground against the Cowboys, though. Take that game out and they're rushing for 81 yards per game at home. They are averaging 4.0 yards per carry if you include the Cowboys game at home. Without the Cowboys game, they are averaging 3.4 yards per carry at home. Brees has been sacked 16 times in 7 home games, and "hit" 29 times. Brees has been intercepted 3 times at home.
On the road, the Saints are passing for an average of almost 281 yards per game. Despite the fact that Drew Brees is historically throwing for more passing yards in losses, this season he's passing for 54 yards less on the road. This all despite the fact that Brees has thrown 295 passes on the road and just 281 at home. So Brees is throwing more passes on the road for over 50 yards less per game. The Saints are also averaging just 74 yards rushing per game on the road, at 3.5 yards per carry. So the yards per carry are about the same per game if you take away the Cowboys game, equally inept. Brees has been sacked 14 times and "hit" 36 times in 7 road games. Brees has been intercepted 7 times away (more than double at home).
Conclusion on offense is the running game is roughly equally inept both in yards and yards per carry, down slightly, while passing efficiency is down grossly despite the fact that the line has given up fewer sacks in road game. Go figure. It's interesting that he's been sacked less on the road, but that number is a bit misleading because Brees has been hit significantly more. He's probably getting sacked less despite more pressure because of the heightened awareness of oncoming pressure.
ON DEFENSE:
The Saints have 26 sacks and 12 takeaways at home. They are giving up just 171 yards passing per game, on average at home. They are also giving up 96.4 yards rushing per game at an alarming 5.0 yards per carry.
The Saints have 17 sacks and 5 takeaways on the road. They are giving up almost 221 yards passing per game. That's still pretty good, but 50 yards more on average than at home. They are also giving up 136.4 yards per game rushing, or 40 yards more on average than at home at a 4.4 yards per carry average. So total that's 90 yards more a game they are yielding on the road.
Conclusion on defense: The Saints can't stop the run, at all. Doesn't really matter if it's at home or away. On the road teams can commit to it more because the Saints' offense is struggling. But because teams commit more to the run on the Saints away from the Superdome, the defense is getting last sacks and turnovers. It's pretty surprising they are somehow giving up 50 more passing yards per game too.
ON SPECIAL TEAMS:
At home the Saints are giving up 25.7 yards per kick return when it's not a touchback. That's on 14 returns. They've also yielded 11.1 yards per punt return on 10 returns.
One the road they are giving up 25.7 yards per kick return when it's not a touchback, also off 14 returns. Pretty weird but yes, those are the exact same numbers. Obviously the touchback % is much higher at home, though. They've also yielded 4.6 yards per punt return on 13 returns. So you could argue Morstead is slightly better on the road than he is at home punting, but with the kickoffs it's close to a wash.
On kick returns at home, the Saints are averaging 30.6 yards per return off 7 kickoffs. Travaris Cadet's 82 yarder helps that average significantly. They also returned 20 punts at an average of 7.2 yards per punt return at home.
On the road, the kick return average is 16.6 and they've gotten a look at 15 returns. That's almost half what they get at home per return. On punt returns away they are averaging 2.9 yards on 7 returns. Abysmal. Clearly the return game is mediocre at home, and downright awful on the road.
Garrett Hartley is 9 for 13 at home and 13 for 17 on the road. So he's actually a good bit better away from home, and he's somehow much worse in a domed stadium. Of his 8 misses, 6 have been indoors and 2 have been outdoors. He's only making 64.7% of his kicks indoors, and 84.6% of his tries outdoors. Go figure.
Conclusion on special teams: Morstead and Hartley may actually be performing better away from the Dome, but there is no question the return game is much much worse away.
So when you add all this up, there's a 22 point swing home vs. away. Clearly that can't be pointed back to one area, it's the entire team performing much worse. The Saints are getting less sacks, less turnovers, giving up more points, giving up more yards both rushing and passing, they're scoring less, running for less yards, passing for less yards, getting less in the return game.
What surprises me the Saints' o-line has given up less sacks (but more hits to the QB). It also surprises me that the kicking game is the one area that hasn't changed as much. The Saints have also been penalized 35 times at home in 7 games and 43 times in 7 games on the road, so lack of discipline is perhaps enhanced a bit, too.
I'm inclined to say the Saints' offensive line is not as bad on the road compared to at home as we thought. They are equally bad, I just think Brees and his receivers play worse away. Defensively, the run defense is equally bad but the pass rush is much worse. So for the Saints to play better on the road, it has to start with Brees taking better care of the football in my opinion. The defense also doesn't play with the same intensity, so that needs to be ramped up from the very first play.
Lastly, it's very clear to me that the Saints' offensive line, run defense and return game are all pretty horrific. The return game has the biggest drop off on the road of the three, but all three are bad regardless of the environment. Those are the three biggest weakness areas by far on this team.
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