First things first: If you’re an LSU fan and you’ve never seen or heard of Saturday Night Slant – GET OVER THERE IMMEDIATELY! My fellow Bloguin cohort Kris Brauner runs the site and to put it mildly the guy knows his… stuff. It’s the best LSU blog out there by miles. I had the honor of sitting down with Kris and interviewing him about the NFL draft, LSU draft prospects, and most importantly: the Saints’ draft options. Kris specializes in SEC football knowledge, but he’s also an NFL draft expert so the Q&A below is a must read for any Saints fan. Special thanks to Kris for taking the time to give me real in depth answers that cut right to the bone of the draft process and give us a clear idea of what to look forward to next month. At some point I hope to collaborate with Kris soon on a mock NFL draft that we can present to you.
Here’s my Q&A with Kris Brauner of Saturday Night Slant:
1. Kris – I know you specialize in the SEC. Give me the top 5 draft prospects coming out of the SEC this season.
1. Patrick Peterson DB LSU – Peterson has a high ceiling with uncanny athletic ability for a guy his size (6’1″ 215 pounds). Built like a safety, Peterson has the speed, hips and change of direction ability to be a shutdown corner in the NFL. For a big corner, I’m not sure we’ve ever seen a prospect with his skills before. But Peterson also has a high floor…meaning that most consider him a relatively safe pick and one that will certainly contribute at a high level in the NFL. If for some reason Peterson can’t hack it at corner, he has the size and skill set to make the easy transition to safety. That versatility makes him even more valuable. At LSU, he was a sure tackler and never dodged contact. I’ve heard scouts compare him to Eric Berry, who played corner for one year at Tennessee before moving to safety. I’ve also heard comparisons to Malcolm Jenkins, who Saints fans of course know was a college corner that successfully made the transition to free safety. The great thing about Peterson adds even more value as an elite return specialist. Peterson was incredible as a junior at returning both punts and kickoffs, and his long returns were key to LSU winning the field position battle all year.
2. Nick Fairley DT Auburn – Fairley would probably occupy the top spot on this list, and in the entire draft, if not for some character concerns. On the field, Fairley was the most dominating player in college football this season — even more dominating than his quarterback Cam Newton. As an LSU follower, I’ve seen a number of outstanding defensive tackles in recent years. Guys like Chad Lavalais, Kyle Williams, Claude Wroten, and Glenn Dorsey come to mind. But none made the kind of impact that Fairley did in 2010. His game translates very well to the NFL, and a difference maker on the inside of the defensive line is quite possibly the hardest thing for NFL teams to find. However Fairley’s character or severe lack thereof, is a concern and from following the SEC so closely, I can’t say I disagree with anyone who questions it. We saw numerous cheap shots, late hits, and totally unnecessary extracurricular stuff. We saw more than enough to call it a pattern. He’s certainly a high risk / high reward pick. He has the look of a multi-year Pro Bowler, but he also has the potential to cause some turmoil a la Albert Haynesworth. It would be awfully tough to make the call to invest so much money into Fairley with a Top-5 pick. But it’s equally as tough to pass on him.
3. A.J. Green WR UGA – The AJ vs. Julio debate was quite common among SEC fans over the past three years. Now, NFL scouts can chime in on the debate, and I suspect they will all the way up until draft day. Green has shown everything in college. He plays fast and can get open down the field. He can run after the catch. He can go up and make the ridiculous catch in traffic. His routes are crisp. And he doesn’t drop balls. He should be the top receiver picked on draft day, despite Julio’s great showing at the Combine. He looks like a clear NFL #1 receiver and a guy that can make an impact right away. If there is any concern about Green, it may be that he is not physical enough but at 210 pounds, that’s being pretty picky. It’s like trying to find a flaw with Miranda Kerr. Sure, you can try to do it. But you’re kind of a douche if you come up with something.
4. Julio Jones WR Alabama – And of course right behind Green is Bama’s Julio Jones. Let the debate continue. Jones may end up being a better all-around receiver than Green. He looks a bit more comfortable running shorter routes. And despite his faster 40 time at the combine, I still think Green is faster on the football field with pads on. The only other knock on Jones is that he had a bit of a subpar (by the lofty standards we all set for him) sophomore season. Jones was fantastic as a junior though and showed that he can compete against the best. He had a great day catching some tough balls against Patrick Peterson in their head to head match-up.
5. Marcell Dareus DT Alabama – Dareus did not play with the consistency you’d like to see from a first round draft pick, but he showed flashness of greatness, and he’ll get drafted very high as a result of that potential. NFL scouts love him because of his versatility. He could easily play inside in a 4-3 scheme or fit nicely as an end in a 3-4. His strength is rushing the passer but at a very stout 6’4″ 310 pounds, he is no slouch against the run. He’s a complete interior lineman that will make his share of big plays in the NFL.
Next 5:
6. Mark Ingram RB Alabama
7. Justin Houston OLB Georgia
8. Randall Cobb WR Kentucky
9. Cam Newton QB Auburn
10. Derek Sherod OL Mississippi State
I’m not hating on my LSU guys. Drake Nevis and Kelvin Sheppard would be in the next group along with Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett
2. Any non-SEC players that have really impressed you?
Some guys have certainly caught my eye, whether from following LSU or from diving into NFL Draft stuff. In 2009, I was lucky enough to make the trip to Seattle to see LSU take on Washington. I know that he has some issues with his accuracy, but Jake Locker was really impressive on that particular night. He showed a ton of guts in keeping his under matched Huskies team in the ball game. He passed for 321 yards and rushed for 50 more and that was against what ended up being a pretty good LSU defense. I’m not sure whether he has the stuff to be a star in the NFL, but the way he competes really stood out to me. However, the most impressive guy that night was Washington outside linebacker Mason Foster. He was a tackling machine and someone that LSU had to account for. Foster looks like a second round prospect.
It’s tough not to be impressed Ohio State defensive lineman Cameron Heyward. Heyward was a beast in the Sugar Bowl against Arkansas and can be absolutely dominant at times. For a team looking for a solid strong side defensive end with better than average ability to get to the quarterback, Heyward could be a steal somewhere in the second round. In fact, this mock draft has the Saints taking him at pick #56.
Miami receiver Leonard Hankerson is also a guy that has my attention. He always made plays for the Canes, and he followed that up with a nice combine. There’s not much to not like about his prospects of playing well in the NFL. He may sneak into the first round.
Purdue DE Ryan Kerrigan is another guy to watch. He’s an ultra-productive (26 TFL in 2010) player who some have inexplicably dropped down their board due to size concerns. And while most think he fits best in a 3-4, I think he can play outside in a 4-3. He’s really not all that small, checking in at 6’4″ 267 pounds at the Combine.
3. Where do you see Patrick Peterson going?
I’ve seen Peterson projected to go anywhere from Denver at #2 overall to Dallas at #9. I don’t see him falling all the way to #9 and I’m also not quite ready to concede the #1 overall spot just yet. Without a consensus right now on who Carolina will take, it’s not impossible to think they may settle on the player who many think is the safest pick in the draft. If I had to guess, I’d say he’ll go #2 overall to the Denver Broncos. Even though they just re-signed Champ Bailey, Peterson can learn from him for a few years before becoming the leader of that secondary.
4. How about the other LSU players? When can we expect them to get drafted?
At one point, it looked like a certainty that the next LSU Tiger off the board would be defensive tackle Drake Nevis. He was starting to get some looks as a late first round possibility; however, many teams appear concerned with his smaller size. His stock has dropped some lately. On the flip side, linebacker Kelvin Sheppard has seen his stock soar. He had a great week at the Senior Bowl and did nothing at the Combine to hurt himself. He’s a “sleeper” on a ton of mock drafts right now, which means that he’s not really a sleeper. I think both guys are looking at the mid second to early third round range.
After them, receiver Terrance Toliver is probably next. Toliver is a very solid NFL draft prospect. He’s someone that could develop into a very solid #2 WR, and he’s looking at being taken anywhere between rounds three through five.
Running back Stevan Ridley will be next. A lot of teams will get caught up on his slower 40 time, but straight ahead speed is not what makes Ridley special. He’s a very tough runner and has some pretty special skills as far as making quick cuts in traffic and navigating between the tackles. I really believe that Ridley will make a fine pro and is a solid candidate to have an impact as a rookie if he finds the right situation. I can’t see him going any higher than the fourth round, and I’d be surprised if he falls past the sixth. A solid 40 time at LSU’s Pro Day will help his cause immensely.
Offensive tackle Joseph Barksdale has actually seen his stock drop a bit recently. But he’s still a guy that should get picked somewhere in the later rounds. He more than held his own in the SEC as both a right tackle and a left tackle. It’s not a stretch to see him as a starting right tackle in the NFL in a couple of years. He has good size, better than average athleticism, and he’s a beast in the weight room. He would probably project pretty well as a guard if he cannot handle blocking on the edge at the next level, and I assume some teams would like that versatility.
Place kicker Josh Jasper was one of the better kickers in the nation, and he hopes that translates into a draft selection. Most teams won’t use a draft pick on a kicking specialist unless he’s truly special, but a few teams might put Jasper in that category. He has the range that NFL teams like to see.
Defensive tackle Pep Levingston is the only other guy that may get picked, though I think that’s unlikely. He’s a late round selection at best.
I did an in-depth piece on the draft prospects of LSU’s players with Aaron Aloysius at Draft Breakdown. You can check it out here. It was written before the Senior Bowl and Combine so it’s a little dated, but it’s still a good read.
5. The Saints pick at #24. Have you thought about a prediction that far into the draft? Who is a good fit that would be available and help the team?
Like many other Saints fans, I think priority #1 is to improve their pass rush in this draft. They could do that with a quick, pass rushing defensive tackle to play alongside Sedrick Ellis and Shaun Rogers. They could do that with an outside linebacker with some speed that can be a weapon on some of Gregg Williams’ blitzes. Or more likely, they can do it with a defensive end.
It makes the most sense for the Saints to invest in another defensive end. Will Smith will be 30 this year and looks like me may actually serve that four game suspension. If Ryan Kerrigan (mentioned above) falls to #24, I would take him without hesitation. Kerrigan could solidify that defensive end spot opposite Will Smith. He would have a strong veteran like Alex Brown around to help him out. He and Drew Brees can watch Purdue games together. It’s perfect.
If Kerrigan is gone, I’d hope the Saints would consider Georgia’s Justin Houston. He’s a very similar player to Kerrigan. He played DE for two years in Georgia’s 4-3 defense and then moved to OLB when Georgia switched to a 3-4 scheme. But at 6’3″ 270 pounds, he’s got the size needed to play in either system. As a defensive end, Houston racked up 15 TFL and 7.5 sacks in 2009. This past season playing linebacker, he notched 18.5 TFL and 10 sacks. Gregg Williams would have a lot of fun coming up with ways to get Houston involved. I’m not big on 40 times, especially for linemen, but his 4.68 in the 40 at the Combine at 270 pounds is a head-turner.
If the Saints are thinking OLB, then Illinois linebacker Martez Wilson should be considered. He’s a traditional outside backer who is very active but makes a ton of plays behind the line. He’s known for his ability to blitz and get after the passer, and that would make him a great fit in New Orleans.
Another Illinois player, Corey Liuget, could be an option at defensive tackle. He fits the bill as a guy that could compliment Ellis in the middle and use his quickness and athleticism to make plays. Yes, the Saints just signed Shaun Rogers but that is likely a one year solution. And Rogers is more of the run-stuffing tackle while Liuget is more of a disruptor.
In the second round, guys like LSU DT Drake Nevis, Ohio State DE Cameron Heyward, or Washington OLB Mason Foster may be great options if available. Nevis may even be available when the Saints pick early in the third round.
So I laid out a lot of options, but if I’m giving an official prediction/wish, I’ll go with Ryan Kerrigan.
6. Do you think the player you are picking at #24 for the Saints can come in and make an impact/start right away?
Absolutely. That’s what first round draft picks are supposed to do. But with that said, that has not happened the last two years. Neither Malcolm Jenkins nor Patrick Robinson cracked the starting lineup as rookies even though both played a lot and made some big plays. But it’s tough to see a first round talent at one of the three positions I’m targeting not make a big impact for the Saints in 2011…especially if it’s a pass rushing defensive end.
7. At what point in the draft does talent start to drop off in your mind? Is there a big separation after top 5? top 10? Is the quality of a player really that different in round 3 vs. round 4?
I think this draft is very heavy at the top. I see about 12 to 15 guys that could be considered Top 5 picks without too much of a stretch. But I don’t see a ton of difference from the middle of the first round until the end of the second round. Lots of quality prospects are available in that range and the Saints should get two of them. At that point, it’s about evaluation and finding the right fit. That’s good news for Saints fans because by and large, the Saints’ front office has done a great job of evaluating the draft in recent years.
Beyond the second round, it becomes even more about fit. And again, the Saints have excelled here. Outside of Drew Brees, the top two offensive players on the team (in my opinion) were selected in the later rounds in Jahri Evans and Marques Colston.
8. Who is the most underrated player in the draft?
He’s not all that underrated as a projected third rounder, but I really really like Kentucky wide receiver Randall Cobb. The guy made a ton of plays for Kentucky. He caught over 80 passes and had over 1,000 yards receiving in 2010. Then he added 424 rushing yards too. I think he has star potential in the NFL as one of these undersized slot receivers that turn into pass catching machines. Think of guys like Wes Welker, Danny Amendola, Lance Moore or even a dual threat guy like Percy Harvin. He runs good routes, has good hands, and has speed to burn. His size is the only negative that I can see but with the right system, Cobb can be a 80 or 90 reception guy in the NFL. He’s not a bad option as a return specialist too.
9. Who is the most overrated player in the draft?
I’ll go with Wisconsin defensive end J.J. Watt. He was very productive in college, but he’s not overly quick or athletic. And at 6’5″ 290 pounds, it’s tough to see him making a ton of plays against elite NFL offensive tackles. Sure, he could be a solid starter in the NFL, especially in a 3-4. But as a guy projected to be picked in the top half of the first round, you’re looking for a Pro Bowler and a play maker. I don’t think Watt will be either of those things.
I’m also clearly not on the Cam Newton bandwagon. The guy is a really incredible athlete and was a dominant college player. But in college, he made mostly simple reads and high percentage throws and was a runner first. He won’t be able to get away with that in the NFL. While the physical skills are off the charts, Newton has a WHOLE lot to prove especially for someone that many are touting as the #1 overall pick. Throw in some character concerns and it’s tough to see why a team would invest tens of millions of dollars in him when he has more question marks than answers. His broad jump at the combine sure was impressive though (sarcasm).
10. Any players you think the Saints should target in later rounds? Who are good value picks deeper in the draft?
If the Saints have yet to address outside linebacker by the end of the third round, Mississippi State’s K.J. Wright is an underrated prospect that could help solidify that spot which was in flux throughout 2010. Replacing the consistency of Scott Fujita proved to be a difficult task for the Saints. With Dunbar, Clark and Mitchell as free agents this off-season, a stable presence there could conceivably fill all three roster spots by himself. None of the three guys mentioned, nor Jonathan Casillas, were able to step up and take control of that position. I’d love to see the Saints address that through the draft and Wright is a great value pick if the Saints can nab him at the end of Round 3.
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