It’s my fault. That’s right, this guy right here came in firing on all cylinders and proclaimed the Falcons road kill… as it turns out road kill tackles better than the Saints did on Sunday (and frankly is far less odoriferous). Atlanta QB Matt Ryan torched the Saints new look defense for an Atlanta record 448 yards and the Saints gave up the second most yards in franchise history (for those keeping track not even in the 2012 season had they achieved such a noteworthy level of failure). This will go down as one of the worst performances in modern Saints history and an embarrassing loss to a divisional rival, and yet, when I called into Ralph’s postgame podcast I stated that my level of worry over the defense was a 2 on a 1-10 scale. On the surface that is a statement almost as ludicrous as putting Patrick Robinson one on one with Julio Jones, or allowing Devin Hester to go off for 99 yards (DEVIN HESTER!!!). I followed that comment up with the declaration that if this next week saw a repeat performance my level of concern would leap to a 9. Why is there a 7-point disparity on my ‘brown pants meter’ based on an additional week?
It’s exactly because the Saints and the Falcons both had historic performances last week (one good, one decidedly not so). Remember that last season the Saints broke an NFL record against Dallas for first downs and put up 600 yards of Offense… they also produced less than 20 points multiple times throughout the season and relied on field goals to beat a relatively mediocre Philly defense in the playoffs. That isn’t an indictment on the Saints at all, but what it shows is that statistical outliers are just that… they are outside the norm. I refuse to engage in ‘overreaction Monday’ (or whatever day you are reading this) and say the Saints defense has regressed to 2012 levels of ineptitude after one game. The facts are that the Falcons spent the entire off-season gearing up to play the Saints and were obsessed over winning week one, and their play (particularly Matt Ryan’s) was proof of that. On the other hand, I truly believe that the Saints came in the game with the mentality of the ‘big brother’s’ and were simply expecting to win. Considering it took arguably the greatest offensive performance in Falcons history and one of the worst defensive for the Saints to win by 3, at home, in overtime… that mentality isn’t entirely unjustified. It doesn’t excuse them from a flat performance, but it may give hope that it will be a one time thing. Something else that leads me to believe that last week’s performance will be an exception and not the rule is the fact that the biggest flaw the Saints defense had last night other than missed tackles was a total lack of communication. Simply put this group of players, and in particular the secondary, had an incredibly reduced amount of time together all on the field at the same time. A great secondary is such because each player knows where they need to be and where the others will be at all times, and because of that, they know where the holes are and can close them quickly. What makes Seattle’s defense so good isn’t just their talent, it’s the fact that even when you do complete a pass on them, a player is usually tackled by two or three guys immediately. The Saints have the potential to be almost as good at the same thing because of the talent in their secondary (they lack the elite linebackers that Seattle has, but they don’t need them as much either because of the offense)
Rob Ryan now has actual game film to teach from and work off of, the guys are totally fired up (just check Keenan and Junior out this week…they are highly, highly ticked off), and they are playing a far less formidable opponent than last week in the Cleveland Browns. Speaking of them, I suppose I should at some point start covering the Saints next opponent… so here goes.
The Browns game from last week was a tale of two halves. Pittsburgh jumped out to an early lead after absolutely torching the Browns defense, and in particular speedster Antonio Brown (who is very similar to our own Brandin Cooks… but more on that later). Pittsburgh was also able to use a power running attack with back Le’Veon Bell to devastating effect. The reason that the Browns were eventually able to make the game close comes from two sides; first of all Pittsburgh simply took their foot off the gas and let the Browns back in it, and secondly the Pittsburgh defense is a shadow of what it once was. The Browns were able to run the ball pretty much whenever they wanted to, even after losing stud back Ben Tate to injury (it’s his go-to move). The Browns have one of the best offensive lines in the league and will look to take advantage of that and run the ball right down the Saints’ throats. If they can do that, then they may have a legitimate chance in this game. However, if the Saints can either get up by two scores early, or better yet actually get penetration on the line this week and disrupt Cleveland’s offense… then they should win the game handily.
Being that this isn’t a divisional game some of you may or may not be as familiar with the match-ups as you were with the Falcons so I am going to outline the ones I think are important, and which ones are in the Saints favor.
Offensive line: The Browns have LT Joe Thomas who is one of the very best in the game at his position, and they also have a very good surrounding cast around him. Last year this would have been a definitive win for the Browns, but the growth of Terron Armstead along with signing of ‘Goody’ in the offseason, has me calling it a wash.
Defensive line: These rankings are ‘in a vacuum’ and not based solely on last week’s performance; after all if they were the Browns would win hands down…my high school team would win if we were basing it on last week(only a slight exaggeration). However, the Saints still have one of the most talented fronts in the league and I believe that Cam, Junior, and Akiem are going to come into the game angry and with something to prove. Advantage Saints.
Secondary: The Browns are in many ways a mirror of the Saints at corner. On one side, they have one of the elite cover men in the game in superstar Joe Hayden, while the Saints sport up and comer Keenan Lewis. Both Teams also have a talented young corner on the other side with a lot to learn (the difference is that Justin Gilbert is a rookie, while P-Roblem just looks like one). The difference lies in their safeties; the Saints third best safety (Rafael Bush) is better than their best safety (cheap shot artist Donte ‘hit’ner). The Saints have a big advantage here, and even more so considering who each team is bringing on the offensive end.
Linebackers: I’m tempted to call this a wash, but when they play well Lofton and Hawthorne are excellent against the run and should give the Saints the edge. (Kruger and Mingo are really both pass rushers so in this case I’m counting them as linemen)
Quarterback: If i have to explain this one to you…you don’t get to watch football anymore. I like Hoyer, I think he is a good guy, but he is probably barely better than the QB on the Saints practice squad if we are being honest here. Drew by a mile.
Running backs: Unlike some people, I am not petrified of future hall of fame back Terrance West. Don’t get me wrong, the kid has talent and could do some damage, but he isn’t in the Lynch, McCoy, Peterson, Charles league and they are the only backs who truly scare me.
Receivers: This is an easy one; Miles Austin is their best receiver…nuff said (although Hawkins is a decent threat). I am assuming Josh Gordon doesn’t play, but if he does then everything changes, he might be the scariest receiver in the game this side of Megatron. On the other hand the Saints have Colston the zone killer, a rookie with the kind of speed and ‘smooth quickness’ that baffles the mind, and a second year player in Kenny Stills (assuming he plays) who possesses great deep threat ability as well as strong route running and hands. If Kenny plays alongside Brandin I am willing to predict that the Saints will pass for over 400 yards of offense because of the versatility of him and Brandin and the match-ups that they create.
Tight Ends: Jordan Cameron is a very talented Tight End who has a lot to offer a winning team… that isn’t the Browns. He very well may make some plays this week, but there is a huge difference between ‘rising star’ and ‘best in the game’. Jimmy Graham occupies the later position.
X-factor: The two x-factors for this game are Brandin Cooks and Terrance West. Both Players have the explosive potential to change the landscape of the game…really quickly. West is a threat both rushing and receiving and could become a very dangerous back in this league, especially behind one of the better offensive lines. Cooks on the other hand demonstrated jsut how much he can scare a team as he nearly racked up a hundred total yards of offense in the first half against the Falcons and they have two of the best young corners in the game (He should ROAST Gilbert at least a couple times). If either of these guys goes off it will have a big impact on the game, but the tie-breaker for me is what happens if they both go off. In that scenario Brandin is simply the more dynamic player and can be used in more ways, he also is on the better team so his potential impact has a far greater residual effect.
Coaches: This doesn’t even deserve the dignity of an explanation…team cross fit takes this one home, hipster glasses and all.
Prediction: I won’t do one every week, but this week I’m calling it Saints -42/ Brown-17
Time to wash off the taint of that Atlanta game and get this team going in the right direction WHODAT
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