Ahhhhh the doldrums of the offseason. With one major exception, everything in CBJ-Land is settled for the coming year. Even considering Ryan Johansen‘s lack of a contract, we still have a very good idea of what the Blue Jackets roster will look like for the coming year. The exact lines and defense pairings are still up in the air, but we can deal with that closer to when we actually get to see them. Right now there is one thing (almost) going on in the NHL: arbitration hearings. I say almost, as hearings basically NEVER happen anymore, with all the scheduled hearings getting canceled so far after the players and teams have come to agreements. However, I know a thing or two about arbitration in the NHL, having penned this article at the Score, this MUCH longer in-depth paper, as well as first hand experience working on NHL arbitration cases. I figured I’d take the arbitration approach to the current Blue Jackets roster. By looking at what players around the league would be comparable to the current CBJ roster based on their current seasons, we can see if their salaries (and by salaries I mean cap hits) are commensurate with what they contributed last season.
So how did I do this? Well I used a 15% filter (with exceptions noted) for goals and assists, a 25% filter for time on ice, a plus/minus two years in age filter, and of course a positional filter (although all forwards are lumped together). Those sets were used for every player, with a 25% filter for special teams play for players that warranted it. This was done over the last two seasons to find a group of five to ten players who best matched the CBJ player in question. Players on entry-level deals weren’t considered, as their contracts are not merit based (at least not NHL merit). I then looked over the resulting list and figured out where the CBJ player fit. That gives us a nice little range for what each player should be paid based on their market value (from last season), how they compare to players of similar ilk, and what kind of contract to expect for each player moving forward. For today’s post I’ll be taking a look at Cam Atkinson, Matt Calvert, and Brandon Dubinsky. Why didn’t I start with Ryan Johansen? Well the outrage from some mainstream media folks over the Dubinsky project is what initially led me to this idea, I wanted to do them by lines (more or less), and I can only do so much in one post (these are VERY research intensive). Don’t worry, Johansen will be in part two. Without further ado, let’s get into it.
Cam Atkinson
Current salary: $1.15m per year, signed 2013 through 2015
2013-14: 79 GP, 21 G, 19 A, 40 Pts, 9 PP Pts, 2:13 PP TOI/GP, 15:47 TOI/GP
Career: 141 GP, 37 G, 35 A, 72 Pts
Filters: Age 22-26, 60 GP, 0.22-0.32 G/GP, 0.17-0.25 A/GP, 1.6-2.8 PP TOI/GP
2013-14 Comparable Players
Artem Anisimov ($3.283m, signed 2013 through 2016)
2013-14: 81 GP, 22 G, 17 A, 39 Pts, 6 PP Pts, 2:01 PP TOI/GP, 16:35 TOI/GP
Career: 360 GP, 79 G, 86 A, 165 Pts
Not going to lie, it’s pretty amusing that the first comparable for the first player is a Blue Jackets player. Cam and Arty had very similar seasons last year, with similar goal, assist and point totals, similar powerplay time and time on ice. However, Arty gets the nod over Cam due to his time on the penalty kill, his role as a center, his all around versatility, and longer track record..
Jamie McGinn ($2.95m, signed 2014 through 2016)
2013-14: 79 GP, 19 G, 19 A, 38 Pts, 9 PP Pts, 1:45 PP Toi/GP, 15:46 TOI/GP
Career: 347 GP, 65 G, 57 A, 122 Pts
McGinn is a little closer to Cam, as he is a winger who doesn’t play on the PK, while being a second PP unit guy. This gives us a good baseline for where Atkinson’s next contract will be. If he’s a 20-20-40 scorer, with second PP unit minutes, while playing a 2nd/3rd line role at even strength, he should expect McGinn money.
Andrew Shaw ($2m, signed 2014 through 2016)
2013-14: 80 GP, 20 G, 19 A, 39 Pts, 9 PP Pts, 2:37 PP TOI/GP, 15:41 TOI/GP
Career: 165 GP, 41 G, 36 A, 77 Pts
Shaw is probably the best match right now for Cam. Nearly identical across the board last season, and over their careers. Shaw can point to his grittiness as an added bonus, but Cam has never had the kind of linemates Shaw has seen (his most common linemates last season were Brandon Saad and Patrick Kane). I’d say it’s a wash.
Chris Stewart ($4.15m, signed 2013 through 2015)
2013-14: 63 GP, 15 G, 11 A, 26 Pts, 6 PP Pts, 1:52 PP TOI/GP, 13:41 TOI/GP
Career: 382 GP, 115 G, 113 A, 228 Pts
Stewart was a fit last season, but he is a very different player than Atkinson, and over the course of his career. For Cam to approach Stewart money next offseason, he’d have to blow past the 20 goal mark in 2014-15.
2013 Comparable Players
Artem Anisimov (see above)
2013: 35 GP, 11 G, 7 A, 18 Pts, 1 PP Pt, 1:42 PP TOI/GP, 16:24 TOI/GP
Career to date: 279 GP, 57 G, 69 A, 126 Pts
Oh hey look, him again. The 2013 Anisimov still tops Cam for all the same reasons listed above. Nice to know Arty is consistent though.
Jamie McGinn (see above)
2013: 47 GP, 11 G, 11 A, 22 Pts, 7 PP Pts, 2:19 PP TOI/GP, 17:17 TOI/GP
Career to date: 268 GP, 46 G, 38 A, 84 Pts
McGinn shows up again, but the interesting thing to note is the career numbers. McGinn has been in the NHL longer, while only being a year older, but his early years weren’t particularly productive. Cam has 72 career points (to 2013 McGinn’s 84) in 141 games (to 2013 McGinn’s 268).
Looking at these deals, it’s pretty clear where Cam comes in. He’s clearly below Stewart (with a 30 goal year under his belt as a power forward) and Anisimov (a center, more versatile, kills penalties, longer track record). He’s basically dead even with Shaw, while his last two years are slightly better than McGinn. McGinn has more NHL games player, but Cam’s been the better player over the duration of his career than McGinn has been. If Cam were an RFA this offseason, he’d be looking at Shaw money, however another year like last season and he’ll be looking at around $3m per year on a short-term deal. Either way, Cam’s likely to be a bargain again this season.
Matt Calvert
Current salary: $987,500 per year, 2 years, signed through 2015
2013-14: 56 GP, 9 G, 15 A, 24 Pts, 4 PP Pts, 1:32 PP TOI/GP, 1:33 SH TOI/GP, 16:06 TOI/GP
Career: 153 GP, 29 G, 34 A, 63 Pts
Filters: Age 22-26, 40 GP, 0.13-0.19 G/GP, 0.22-0.32 A/GP, 1.1-2.0 PPTOI/GP, 1.1-2 SHTOI/GP
2013-14 Comparable Players
Nick Spaling (Current RFA, made $1.5m on one year contract in 2013-14)
2013-14: 71 GP, 13 G, 19 A, 32 Pts, 6 PP Pts, 1:10 PP TOI/GP, 1:31 SH TOI/GP, 16:01 TOI/GP
Career: 297 GP, 40 G, 44 A, 84 Pts
Spaling is a very good fit for Calvert. They played nearly identical roles on their respective teams and performed almost exactly the same. Spaling is listed as a center, but he actually ended up 6th on the Predators in faceoffs taken and was a winger on David Legwand’s line for much of the year. Think of him as a center like Mark Letestu is a center. Spaling has had the longer career, but Calvert has been better so far. Considering both those items, they should be worth damn near exactly the same. However, Spaling’s still unsigned and therefore not that helpful yet, although whatever he signs for should tell us Calvert’s exact worth.
Patrik Berglund ($3.7m, signed 2014 through 2017)
2013-14: 78 GP, 14 G, 18 A, 32 Pts, 4 PP Pts, 1:32 PP TOI/GP, 1:31 SH TOI/GP, 16:10 TOI/GP
Career: 436 GP, 106 G, 114 A, 220 Pts
Berglund tops Calvert is just about every way, outside of how they were used last season. I think that goes more to the depth of St. Louis as it does anything about Berglund and Calvert themselves. It was also a down year for Berglund as well, as he has two 20 goal years, a 19 goal year, and a 17 goals in 48 games lockout season under his belt. Berglund is quite a bit better, and Calvert would need a couple more years of equal production to near Berglund’s value.
Unfortunately, that is it for players who matched Calvert’s filters. There just isn’t a large list of guys who are second PP unit, second SH unit, and 3rd liners. I’m guessing this is part of the reason why Spaling is still unsigned. Without comparable players, it’s tough to gauge someone’s value. However, we can take a little from the players who match the production of Calvert, the even strength time on ice, and one of the PP or SH filters. Those players are:
- Colin Wilson 81 GP, 11 G, 22 A, 33 Pts, only matched PP filter ($2m, signed 2012 through 2015)
- Matt Beleskey 55 GP, 9 G, 15 A, 24 Pts, only matched PP filter ($1.35m, signed 2013 through 2015)
- Paul Byron 47 GP, 7 G, 14 A, 21 Pts, only matched SH filter ($600k, signed for 2014-15)
- Patrick Maroon 62 GP, 11 G, 18 A, 29 Pts, only matched PP filter ($575k, signed 2013 through 2015)
- Jordan Staal 82 GP, 15 G, 25 A, 40 Pts, only matched SH filter ($6m, signed 2013 through 2023)
Wilson is probably the best comparable, as he has similar production, matched the PP filter, but is a center who has no experience killing penalties. Those two items might be a trade-off when comparing him to Calvert and Spaling. However, his contract is also pretty old, and he’s entering a contract year. Beleskey, Byron and Maroon are closer to being fringe players than any of the others. I’m not sure Byron is an NHLer on any team other than Calgary, and Beleskey and Maroon are the players most likely to be bumped down the lineup in Anaheim following their offseason pickups. Beleskey spent some time in the AHL last season, and Maroon was primarily and AHL player in 2013. Conversely, Staal is much better than everyone listed so far. He had a terrible year, but matched the SH filter, while playing too many PP minutes to match. That contract overpays him, but he’s a much better player than Calvert and Spaling. From looking at these players, Calvert should probably be coming in right above where Wilson is right now (pending Spaling signing of course).
2013 Comparable Players
Nick Bonino ($700k from 2012 through 2014, currently $1.9m from 2014 through 2017)
2013: 27 GP, 5 G, 8 A, 13 Pts, 3 PP Pts, 1:46 PP TOI/GP, 1:13 SH TOI/GP, 15:53 TOI/GP
Career: 112 GP, 11 G, 22 A, 33 Pts
Bonino is interesting, as he was way below Calvert prior to the 2013-14 season. Their current career numbers are close to a wash, but only because Bonino had a breakout 2013-14 season with 22 goals and 49 points. However, this also came with 20 powerplay points, playing almost three PP minutes per game, as the third forward with Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry. Yeah, that will help bump someone’s numbers up some. He’s in Vancouver now, and I’d expect to see his minutes and output drop to the level of Spaling and Calvert. Should that happen, he’ll be an interesting comparable in Calvert’s contract negotiations.
Alex Killorn (Entry Level Contract through 2014, currently $2.55m from 2014 through 2016)
2013: 38 GP, 7 G, 12 A, 19 Pts, 3 PP Pts, 1:52 PP TOI/GP, 1:08 SH TOI/GP, 16:49 TOI/GP
Career: 38 GP, 7 G, 12 A, 19 Pts
I would normally not include someone on their ELC, but Killorn recently signed a new contract, and presents a good example of what could happen with Calvert if he has a good year. Killorn’s rookie year fits the filtering criteria, and his sophomore year barely missed it. He picked up 17 G, 24 A, 41 points, in almost 17 minutes per game, almost 2 minutes on the PP, but interestingly he was not on the PK this past season. A slight uptick in Calvert’s minutes this coming year, almost with ~20 goals and ~40 points could see him seeking a new deal around the $2.55m that Killorn just signed.
Calvert is not quite as cut and dried at Atkinson, but we should have a better idea once Spaling signs. I’m assuming it will come in right around $2m, which fits with Bonino (now in Vancouver after being dealt for Ryan Kesler) and Killorn as the reasonable upside and lowside contracts.
Brandon Dubinsky
Current salary: $4.2m per year, 4 years, signed through 2015, signed extension for $5.85m per year, 6 years, through 2021
2013-14: 76 GP, 16 G, 34 A, 50 Pts, 10 PP Pts, 2:36 PP TOI/GP, 2:09 SH TOI/GP, 18:46 TOI/GP
Career: 498 GP, 99 G, 184 A, 283 Pts
Filters: Age 25-29, 60 GP, 0.15-0.27 G/GP (25% filter), 0.33-0.57 A/GP (25% filter), 1.9-3.3 PPTOI/GP, 1.6-2.7 SHTOI/GP
2013-14 Comparable Players
TJ Oshie ($4.175m, signed 2012 through 2017)
2013-14: 79 GP, 21 G, 39 A, 60 Pts, 15 PP Pts, 2:43 PP TOI/GP, 1:45 SH TOI/GP, 18:59 TOI/GP
Career: 371 GP, 91 G, 164 A, 255 Pts
Oshie isn’t a great comparable, as he’s a different player than Dubinsky. Oshie is the better offensive player, but this past year and historically. Dubinsky is the more versatile player, able to play more positions, more time on the penalty kill, faceoff ace, and everything else he does. Oshie’s contract is also pretty old, and were he to sign a new deal this offseason, he’d probably end up with a higher cap hit than Dubi.
Jordan Staal ($6m, signed 2013 through 2023)
2013-14: 15 G, 25 A, 40 Pts, 10 PP Pts, 2:15 PP TOI/GP, 1:37 SH TOI/GP, 18:56 TOI/GP
Career: 561 GP, 145 G, 174 A, 319 Pts
Now there’s the stuff. This is one of the best comps I’m likely to come across in this entire project. Doesn’t it feel like Staal should be considered a much better player than Dubinsky? Well guess what, he’s not. He has more points over his career than Dubinsky, but in more games. In fact, they have IDENTICAL career points per game. I don’t mean about the same. I mean to three decimal points. They play the similar powerplay, penalty killing, and even strength roles. Their both great on faceoffs. Staal is a bit more of a scorer, and a little bigger, but Dubinsky can play any forward position and was much better offensively this past season. Looking at Staal, it’s a little amusing he’s such a big name, pretty much only because of his name and his rookie year where he scored on over 22% of his shots (career 12% shooter). Staal is signed for two extra years and more money. I’d rather have Dubinsky at $4.2m for this year and $5.85m for the rest.
Travis Zajac ($5.75m, signed 2013 through 2021)
2013-14: 80 GP, 18 G, 30 A, 48 Pts, 15 PP Pts, 2:30 PP TOI/GP, 1:59 SH TOI/GP, 20:18 TOI/GP
Career: 551 GP, 116 G, 207 A, 323 Pts
Damn, another very good comparable. Zajac has Dubinsky beat by a hair in career numbers, but those are a little inflated by a couple of years centering Ilya Kovalchuk. Dubinsky’s never played on a team with a player that good, let alone had one for a linemate. Dubinsky has also been the better player the last couple years in every way, outscoring Zajac 70 points to 68 points, but in 23 fewer games. You could make the durability argument, but that doesn’t even hold up is you go back just one more year. Over the last three seasons, Zajac has 27 goals and 74 points in 143 games. Dubi has 28 goals and 104 points in 182 games. Dubinsky is also signifcantly more physical than Zajac. Hits aren’t great to compare from rink to rink (they are tracked inconsistently), but Dubinsky had 234 hits last year to Zajac’s 53. That isn’t scorer’s bias, that’s a huge difference no matter what. Dubi is also more versatile, as Zajac is a pure center, while Dubi can play anywhere. I’d rather have Dubi for just $100k more than Zajac at his current number. Actually, the Devils will pay Zajac more over the next seven years than the CBJ will pay Dubinsky. That’s pretty solid.
2013 Comparable Players
Patrice Bergeron ($5m from 2011 through 2014, currently $6.5M from 2014 through 2022)
2013: 42 GP, 10 G, 22 A, 32 Pts, 4 PP Pts, 2:10 PP TOI/GP, 2:12 SH TOI/GP, 19:17 TOI/GP
Career: 579 GP, 153 G, 280 A, 433 Pts
Look, we all know Dubinsky is no Bergeron. But he still fits within the filters based on his lockout-shortened year. Basically, a down year from the best two-way forward in the league is equal to a good year from Dubinsky. That is not at all a bad thing.
Tyler Bozak ($4.2m, signed 2013 through 2018)
2013: 46 GP, 12 G, 16 A, 28 Pts, 9 PP Pts, 2:58 PP TOI/GP, 1:38 SH TOI/GP, 20:18 TOI/GP
Career: 238 GP, 53 G, 81 A, 134 Pts
Dubinsky is better than Bozak. Bozak plays more PP time, more even strength time, and shares the ice with Phil Kessel at pretty much all times. He’s also a center who is terrible at draws (48.7% last year) while Dubi excels. Bozak has even fallen off as a penalty killer, only playing 1:11 per game in 2013-14.
Loui Eriksson ($4.25m, signed 2010 through 2016)
2013: 48 GP, 12 G, 17 A, 29 Pts, 10 PP Pts, 3:14 PP TOI/GP, 1:37 SH TOI/GP, 20:07 TOI/GP
Career: 501 GP, 150 G, 207 A, 357 Pts
This is an interesting comparable. His career numbers are way above Dubi’s, but Dubinsky has been the better player for two straight seasons. Eriksson actually came in below the filters for the 2013-14 season, pretty much across the board. Add in Dubinsky being more versatile, more physical, and a faceoff ace, and you have Dubi clearly being better than Eriksson. Dubi make’s slightly less this year, then $1.6m more for the 2015-16 season. This deal is really old, but so is Dubi’s current deal, and Dubi is the better player right now and paid less.
Ryan Kesler ($5m, signed 2010 through 2016)
2013: 17 GP, 4 G, 9 A, 13 Pts, 5 PP Pts, 3:17 PP TOI/GP, 1:51 SH TOI/GP, 18:57 TOI/GP
Career: 578 GP, 157 G, 193 A, 350 Pts
Another old deal, another elite-two way player. Like Bergeron, a down year from Kesler is an up year for Dubi. Kesler deserves to be paid more than Dubi, and he is right now. When he’s negotiating an extension next summer, I’m sure he’ll be pointing to Dubi and asking for quite a bit more money.
TJ Oshie (see above)
2013: 30 GP, 7 G, 13 A, 20 Pts, 10 PP Pts, 2:29 PP TOI/GP, 1:38 SH TOI/GP, 19:05 TOI/GP
Career: 292 GP, 70 G, 125 A, 195 Pts
Oshie shows up again, despite everything mentioned above.
Jordan Staal (see above)
2013: 48 GP, 10 G, 21 A, 31 Pts, 7 PP Pts, 2:18 PP TOI/GP, 2:11 SH TOI/GP, 20:06 TOI/GP
Career: 479 GP, 130 G, 149 A, 279 Pts
Color me surprised that Dubi’s near exact match shows up again. And again, Dubi had the better year.
Paul Stastny ($6.6m from 2009 through 2014, currently $7m from 2014 through 2018)
2013: 40 GP, 9 G, 15 A, 24 Pts, 10 PP Pts, 2:42 PP TOI/GP, 2:06 SH TOI/GP, 19:21 TOI/GP
Career: 467 GP, 135 G, 233 A, 368 Pts
This is the other guy Kesler will be pointing to in extension talks. Stastny is a much better offensive player than Dubi, but like Kesler and Bergeron, a down year from Stastny is approximate to a good year from Dubi.
Alex Steen ($3.363m from 2010 through 2014, currently $5.8m from 2014 through 2017)
2013-14: 40 GP, 8 G, 19 A, 27 Pts, 9 PP Pts, 2:33 PP TOI/GP, 1:37 SH TOI/GP, 18:59 TOI/GP
Career: 537 GP, 123 G, 180 A, 303 Pts
This probably another guy that Dubinsky’s agent pointed to when negotiating his extension. Steen’s extension comes in at just below Dubi’s and starts at the same time. Steen is a better scorer, but Dubi is the better playmaker. Dubi can also play center, is great on draws, plays more on the PK, and is more physical. Dubi is a better player than Steen, and will only be making slightly more than him.
That is quite the list of comparable players for Dubinsky. He’s clearly a step below Bergeron, Kesler, and Stastny, although they are among the leagues elite two-way guys. Dubinsky is not quite there offensively, but his good years equal their down years. That’s actually a pretty good thing. His best comparables are Staal, Zajac, and Steen. The second tier of two-way forwards. They make $6m, $5.75m, and $5.8m from when Dubi’s $5.85m extension kicks in. Anyone who thinks Dubinsky got overpaid, or doesn’t deserve his extension is drinking crazy juice.
So that is it for part one of the Salary Project. Stay tuned for the upcoming posts over the next few weeks:
- Part 2: Nick Foligno, Scott Hartnell & Ryan Johansen
- Part 3: Artem Anisimov, Nathan Horton & Boone Jenner
- Part 4: Jared Boll, Brian Gibbons, Mark Letestu & Corey Tropp
- Part 5: Jack Johnson, Ryan Murray, Fedor Tyutin & James Wisniewski
- Part 6: Dalton Prout, David Savard, Sergei Bobrovsky & Curtis McElhinney
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