Welcome to the Salary Project Part 2. If you missed Part 1, you can find it here. The Salary Project is a look at the entire CBJ roster, using an arbitration-style analysis to figure out who their closest comparable players are around the league, how much those players make, and how much to expect on a player’s next contract and/or if they are providing good value on their current contract. This is done through using filters on the entire NHL. We are looking at forwards again this week, so we eliminate all defensemen, all players more than two years apart in age, then break down goals, assists, and special teams time on ice by a percentage filter. Generally, it’s players within 15% of the goals and assists, and 25% of time on ice stats, however there are occasionally exceptions,which are noted, and only when there are not enough players in the standard filter to get a good idea of value. Part 1 covered Cam Atkinson, Matt Calvert, and Brandon Dubinsky. Up today are Nick Foligno, Scott Hartnell, and Ryan Johansen. Let’s get to it.
Nick Foligno
Current salary: $3.083m per year, signed 2012 through 2015
2013-14: 70 GP, 18 G, 21 A, 39 Pts, 6 PP Pts, 1:44 PP TOI/GP, 16:03 TOI/GP
Career: 466 GP, 85 G, 121 A, 206 Pts
Filter: Age 24-28, 50 GP, 0.22-0.3 G/GP, 0.25-0.35 A/GP, 1.29-2.17 PP TOI/GP
2013-14 Comparable Players
Mikael Backlund ($1.5m, signed 2013 through 2015)
2013-14: 76 GP, 18 G, 21 A, 39 Pts, 11 PP Pts, 1:51 PP TOI/GP, 18:32 TOI/GP
Career: 245 GP, 41 G, 60 A, 101 Pts
Backlund isn’t actually a super great comparable, and will probably be valued higher than Foligno on his next contract. He’s a center, plays a lot more on the penalty kill and even strength, while nearly doubling him in powerplay points in just about the exact same amount of time.
Mason Raymond ($3.15m, signed 2014 through 2017)
2013-14: 82 GP, 19 G, 26 A, 45 Pts, 11 PP Pts, 1:58 PP TOI/GP, 17:20 TOI/GP
Career: 456 GP, 99 G, 124 A, 223 Pts
Raymond is a very good match career-wise, as well as at even strength and on the powerplay. Raymond probably comes in a little higher, topping Foligno in points and powerplay points last season, and having slightly better career numbers. However, Raymond is also a very good penalty killer, something Foligno has never shown he can be. Foligno should come in behind Raymond, but not by too much.
That was it for exact matches from this season. There were however a few players who matched the even strength profile of Foligno, but missed on the powerplay time on ice filter. Those players are:
- Derick Brassard ($5m from 2014 through 2019 – more PP time)
- Ryan Callahan ($5.8m from 2014 through 2020 – more PP time and PK time)
- Andrew Cogliano ($3m from 2014 through 2018 – less PP time and more PK time)
- Tyler Ennis ($4.6m from 2014 through 2019 – more PP time and more PK time)
- Drew Stafford ($4m from 2011 through 2015 – more PP time and more PK time)
Pretty straightforward by looking at it. Guys who topped Foligno in PP time make over $4m, while Cogliano is used less on the powerplay, scores about the same, while also kills penalties. All things considered, Foligno should probably be paid less than Cogliano. He currently earns a hair more, but not enough to be a burden
2013 Comparable Players
Cam Atkinson ($1.175m, signed 2013 through 2015)
2013: 35 GP, 9 G, 9 A, 18 Pts, 2 PP Pts, 1:19 PP TOI/GP, 15:35 TOI/GP
Career: 62 GP, 16 G, 16 A, 32 Pts
Cam’s not a great match, as he had barely played in the NHL when he signed this deal.
Mikael Backlund ($1.5m, signed 2013 through 2015)
2013: 32 GP, 8 G, 8 A, 16 Pts, 4 PP Pts, 1:23 PP TOI/GP, 15:07 TOI/GP
Career: 170 GP, 23 G, 39 A, 62 Pts
Backlund matched in both years, but is a much better match based on his 2013-14 season, as it was evidence that he could sustain the level of play he saw in 2013. His PP, PK, and ES time on ice were all down in this season compared to the recently completed 2013-14 season, and still had a comparable year to Foligno. And only got a $1.5m contract.
Devin Setoguchi ($3m, signed 2011 through 2014)
2013: 48 GP, 13 G, 14 A, 27 Pts, 6 PP Pts, 1:58 PP TOI/GP, 14:26
Career: 384 GP, 116 G, 106 A, 222 Pts
Setoguchi is a much better match than Cam and Backlund. His career numbers are better than Foligno’s, although they are trumped up a bit by his time in San Jose riding shotgun with Joe Thornton. Although Foligno now gets to play with the Johan, who’s no slouch.
First things first: I am a big fan of Nick Foligno. He seems like a great guy, and 90% of the time I like what he does on the ice. He also is one of the best players in the league at turning a scoring chance into nothing. He’s been a great fit with Ryan Johansen, as both players have been much better together than apart. However, I am not certain it would be wise for the Jackets to spend the money it will likely take to keep him. Considering the contracts around the league, he’s probably worth $3m per season max, and I’d be much more satisfied with something in the $2.5m to $2.75m range. He’s a bit of a tweener. The guys who play the offensive minutes he plays produce more. Guys who play those minutes and earn more money also kill penalties. There’s also the fact that guys like him are available for cheap every offseason. If you needed Nick Foligno production last offseason, Mason Raymond was available the entire offseason. He was a training camp invite who earned a contract with the Leafs. If you need Nick Foligno production, you could sign Setoguchi. He’s still available. Bottom end top six guys are always available in late summer. Go back even further and you have Peter Mueller in 2012 (and 2013, and 2014). The Jackets themselves picked up Vinny Prospal late in the summer of 2011. Add in Alexander Wennberg, Kerby Rychel, Marko Dano, Oliver Bjorkstrand, and Sonny Milano as possible top six forwards on the way, and I’m not sure committing a roster spot and over $3m to Foligno is a worthwhile proposition. I love the guy, but the Jackets can either get a more versatile player for that money, a cheaper player with similar production, or better production for much cheaper, should one of the prospects pan out.
Scott Hartnell
Current salary: $4.75m per year, signed 2013 through 2019
2013-14: 78 GP, 20 G, 32 A, 52 Pts, 20 PP Pts, 3:18 PP TOI/GP, 16:52 TOI/GP
Career: 953 GP, 250 G, 287 A, 537 Pts
Filter: Age 29-33, 60 GP, 0.22-0.3 G/GP, 0.34-0.48 A/GP, 2.4-4.2 PP TOI/GP
2013-14 Comparable Players
Mike Fisher ($4.2m, signed 2013 through 2015)
2013-14: 75 GP, 20 G, 29 A, 49 Pts, 11 PP Pts, 2:43 PP TOI/ GP, 19:45 TOI/GP
Career: 887 GP, 226 G, 255 A, 481 Pts
Hartnell is the better offensive player, Fisher the more versatile player and better defensively. Hartnell has also been a much healthier player over the course of his career. Fisher has never played a full NHL season, and actually started his NHL career a full year before Hartnell, yet Scottie has played nearly a full season’s worth of games more than Fisher. I think Hartnell is a slightly better player than Fisher.
Brad Richards ($2m, signed for 2014-15)
2013-14: 82 GP, 20 G, 31 A, 51 Pts, 19 PP Pts, 3:40 PP TOI/GP, 18:41 TOI/GP
Career: 892 GP, 276 G, 591 A, 867 Pts
Over their careers Richards has been the far superior player. Of course, his fall from grace has been well documented. At this point, Richards and Hartnell are pretty similar players. Top six forwards who thrive on the powerplay, put up 20-30-50 seasons while playing second line even strength minutes. Richards cap hit is misleading though. I doubt he’d have signed that deal with anyone but Chicago, and if you count his buyout money from the Rangers, Richards will earn just over $5m this season. He will get just shy of $21m over the next 12 years from the Rangers, so he can be a guy providing a ton of value to cap-strapped contenders without sacrificing his pocketbook.
Radim Vrbata ($5m, signed 2014 through 2016)
2013-14: 80 GP, 20 G, 31 A, 51 Pts, 21 PP Pts, 2:48 PP TOI/GP, 17:57 TOI/GP
Career: 792 GP, 215 G, 249 A, 464 Pts
A pretty close comparable here, based on both last season and their careers. Vrbata tells us pretty much exactly what Hartnell would have received were he available on the open market. Hartnell is signed for a few more years than Vrbata, but at a lower cap hit, which is a pretty standard trade off for veteran players.
2013 Comparable Players
Mike Cammalleri ($6m, signed 2009 through 2014, just signed $5m from 2014 through 2019)
2013: 44 GP, 13 G, 19 A, 32 Pts, 15 PP Pts, 2:51 PP TOI/GP, 18:03 TOI/GP
Career: 606 GP, 210 G, 247 A, 457 Pts
Cammalleri has mostly been the better player, but like Fisher he just can’t stay healthy. He’s also never played a full 82 game season, and hasn’t even topped 70 games since the 2008-09 season (although he played 44 of 48 in the lockout year). Cammalleri is a center, and a bit more of a goal scorer, but I would consider their overall full season impact to be about equal. Cammalleri and Hartnell are both signed until 2019, with Cammalleri getting more money. As guys age, I’d rather have the guy who has missed 79 games in his career (and only 23 over the last seven seasons) than the guy who has missed 135 in two less seasons (and 91 in the last seven seasons).
Tomas Fleischmann ($4.5m, signed 2011 through 2015)
2013: 48 GP, 12 G, 23 A, 35 Pts, 13 PP Pts, 2:27 PP TOI/GP, 18:44 TOI/GP
Career: 435 GP, 107 G, 148 A, 255 Pts
Hartnell is a better player than Fleischmann, he’s had a much better career, and is much more dependable health-wise (that seems to be a recurring theme). Fleischmann’s deal runs out a lot sooner, but just regarding the cap hit, it makes Hartnell’s deal look pretty solid in comparison.
Jiri Hudler ($4m, signed 2012 through 2016)
2013: 42 GP, 10 G, 17 A, 27 Pts, 8 PP Pts, 2:36 PP TOI/GP, 17:09 TOI/GP
Career: 451 GP, 97 G, 144 A, 241 Pts
See the above comments on Fleischmann, as they are pretty much exactly the same for Hudler. Hartnell has more than doubled both players in career games and points. He’s a better player than both of them, and brings something neither of them do (awesome powerplay work).
Tomas Plekanec ($5m, signed 2010 through 2016)
2013: 47 GP, 14 G, 19 A, 33 Pts, 15 PP Pts, 2:58 PP TOI/GP, 19:12 TOI/GP
Career: 598 GP, 156 G, 240 A, 396 Pts
Now flip those last two sections. Plekanec is a very versatile player, able to play any position and in any situation and be pretty successful. He’s put up more points per game over his career, is a solid powerplay guy, and a good penalty killer. He definitely deserves to make more than Hartnell (which he does), and if his deal was a year or two newer, he’d probably be even further ahead.
Jason Pominville ($5.6m, signed 2014 through 2019 – Extension signed after 2013 season)
2013: 47 GP, 14 G, 20 A, 34 Pts, 9 PP Pts, 3:30 PP TOI/GP, 20:10 TOI/GP
Career: 588 GP, 189 G, 276 A, 465 Pts
Pominville has been a better player historically, but his last couple years are right in the Hartnell wheelhouse. His deal doesn’t kick in until this coming year, but he signed it last summer after posting the year that matches Hartnell’s season. Pominville is a winger who is relied on for point production and good work on the powerplay. He’s a slightly better version of Hartnell, although they obviously go about it in different styles. Hartnell at almost a million less than Pominville over the same amount of time appears pretty solid.
So from all that, it seems that Scott Hartnell is pretty properly paid, providing he is able to replicate his numbers in Philly from last season (which were seen as a bit of an underachievement). I think that is entirely reasonable, as he will likely inherit the net-front responsibility on the top powerplay unit, something which he is among the best in the league at. However, we can’t discuss Hartnell without also discussing the man he was dealt for. I’m not going to go into too much detail, but here are RJ Umberger’s 2013-14 comparables:
- Sean Bergenheim ($2.75m)
- Brad Boyes ($2.625m)
- Marty Havlat ($1.5m)
- Michael Ryder ($3.5m)
That’s not the prettiest list. Hartnell’s comparable’s average cap hit for 2014 is $4.41m, although they will be pulling in $4.79m with Richards buyout money counted as part of his salary. In other words, Hartnell is right where he should be. To contrast, Umberger’s comps average salary is only $2.59m. And that is with a couple of guys (Bergenheim and Ryder) who could easily be classified as overpaid. No doubt the Jackets came out way ahead in that trade.
Ryan Johansen
Current salary: ?????? (unsigned restricted free agent)
2013-14: 82 GP, 33 G, 30 A, 63 Pts, 20 PP Pts, 2:38 PP TOI/GP, 17:38 TOI/GP
Career: 189 GP, 47 G, 49 A, 96 Pts
Filter: Age 19-23, 60 GP, 0.3-0.5 G/GP (25%), 0.27-0.47 A/GP (25%), 1.9-3.3 PP TOI/GP
2013-14 Comparable Players
Jordan Eberle ($6m, signed 2013 through 2019)
2013-14: 80 GP, 28 G, 37 A, 65 Pts, 20 Pts, 3:02 PP TOI/GP, 19:32 TOI/GP
Career: 275 GP, 96 G, 125 A, 221 Pts
Nice start to the comparables, but Eberle has been better for longer, although he’s not a center and tends to play easier minutes than the Johan.
Evander Kane ($5.25m, signed 2012 through 2018)
2013-14: 63 GP, 19 G, 22 A, 41 Pts, 5 PP Pts, 2:13 PP TOI/GP, 20:17 TOI/GP
Career: 324 GP, 99 G, 101 A, 200 Pts
Kane is a very interesting case. I’m going to go ahead and spoil the 2013 comps and tell you he appears there too. However, Kane is EXACTLY why the bridge deal is an absolute must for Johansen. Kane signed his contract following his breakout third season, after two lackluster years. Kane only played 74 games that year, but if you prorate his numbers over 82 games, he wave finished with 33 goals and 30 assists. If those numbers look familiar, it’s because it is identical to Joey’s breakout third season. Kane also had slightly better numbers to that point in his career, with 63 goals and 63 assists for 126 points in 213 games. Johansen is behind, even accounting for the extra games Kane was able to play due to not being locked out. Kane has been fine since he signed that deal, but he hasn’t improved, hasn’t been able to put together full season, has been plagued by possible off-ice, work ethic, and attitude issues. Both his years since his breakout season have been behind that year in goals and assists per game. The assumption with Johansen is that he’s going to constantly top 30 goals, push for 70 points, and more or less build on last season. Well Kane had an identical third year, and has essentially been a 25 goal, 5o point guy since. We just covered what 25 goal, 50 point players are worth, and those were all guys on UFA deals. A 25 goal, 50 point youngster on an RFA deal shouldn’t cost you north of $5 million.
Ryan O’Reilly ($6m, signed 2014 through 2016)
2013-14: 80 GP, 28 G, 36 A, 64 Pts, 22 PP Points, 2:39 PP TOI/GP, 19:49 TOI/GP
Career: 345 GP, 73 G, 118 A, 191 Pts
O’Reilly isn’t really worth comparing too much at this point. He’s been too good for too long at too many things. However, if Johansen signs a two-year contract, he could be looking at O’Reilly money at that point. This does set the bar for Johansen’s current negotiations though. There is no way you can justify giving Johansen more on a two-year deal than O’Reilly.
Jeff Skinner ($5.75m, signed 2013 through 2019)
2013-14: 71 GP, 33 G, 21 A, 54 Pts, 20 PP Pts, 3:05 PP TOI/GP, 17:11 TOI/GP
Career: 259 GP, 97 G, 88 A, 185 Pts
Skinner is another interesting case of a young guy scoring 30 goals on his entry-level deal, then signing a big extension (a la Eberle and Kane). However, Skinner’s 30 goal year came as a rookie and his three year numbers trump Johansen’s. Skinner played 188 games (to Johansen’s 189), and scored 64 goals with 67 assist for 131 points (to Johansen’s 47-49-96). Johansen generally plays tougher minutes than Skinner, and is a center, but it’s still hard to justify playing Johansen more than Skinner just based on what they had accomplished in their first three seasons.
2013 Comparable Players
Jordan Eberle ($6m, signed 2013 through 2019)
2013: 48 GP, 16 G, 21 A, 37 Pts, 9 PP Pts, 3:11 PP TOI/GP, 18:59 TOI/GP
Career: 195 GP, 68 G, 88 A, 156 Pts
I covered Eberle above, but he’s a much better comparable at this point of his career. But he’s still way ahead of the Johan. In only six more games to that point in their careers, Eberle had piled up 21 more goals, 39 more assists, and 60 more points. Again, you absolutely cannot justify giving Johansen more than $6m per year.
Cody Hodgson ($4.25m signed 2013 through 2019)
2013: 48 GP, 15 G, 19 A, 34 Pts, 5 PP Pts, 2:36 PP TOI/GP, 18:23 TOI/GP
Career: 139 GP, 35 G, 42 A, 77 Pts
Hodgson is like poor man’s Johansen. He’s the only guy on this list who had accomplished less than Johansen at the end of their entry-level deals. He signed a long term deal though, so his number is a little tougher to figure out. But nevertheless, we can guarantee that Johansen gets more than Hodgson.
Evander Kane ($5.25m, signed 2012 through 2018)
2013: 48 GP, 17 G, 16 A, 33 Pts, 4 PP Pts, 2:25 PP TOI/GP, 20:27 TOI/GP
Career: 261 GP, 80 G, 79 A, 159 Pts
I covered Kane at length above, so I’m not going to go into him again here.
Tyler Seguin ($5.75m, signed 2013 through 2019)
2013: 48 GP, 16 G, 16 A, 32 Pts, 6 PP Pts, 2:11 PP TOI/GP, 17:00 TOI/GP
Career: 203 GP, 56 G, 65 A, 121 Pts
If Kane represents the worst-case scenario for signing Johansen to a long-term deal, then Seguin is the best-case. Seguin was also better through his first three seasons compared to Johansen, but the year prior to their extensions were pretty similar. Seguin has since blown up into a legit 80+ point superstar, and his deal looks like a steal. Should Johansen sign a bridge deal, then drop a couple 80 point seasons, he’s going to get Paid (with a capital P).
So let’s look at the two options for Johansen. On a longer term deal, he would probably match the Seguin and Skinner extensions, basically Kane’s extension plus two years of inflation. So $5.75m for 6 years, or about $35m total. Now say he signs a two year $5m bridge deal. If he is Kane over the next two years, he probably signs another $5m per year deal. So he loses out a bit in the long run, and the Jackets don’t overpay him. If he becomes Seguin, he makes $10m over two years, then makes something in the $7m range over the next for years, for a 6 year total of close to $40m. In other words, he wins in the long run salary-wise. If he becomes a player worth a $7m per year deal, the Jackets would be jumping for joy. Everyone wins. Bet on yourself Ryan Johansen. Bet on yourself becoming the player we all want/hope you can be.
Alright, that is it for the Salary Project Part 2. Stay tuned for the rest of the series:
- Part 3: Artem Anisimov, Nathan Horton & Boone Jenner
- Part 4: Jared Boll, Brian Gibbons, Mark Letestu & Corey Tropp
- Part 5: Jack Johnson, Ryan Murray, Fedor Tyutin & James Wisniewski
- Part 6: Dalton Prout, David Savard, Curtis McElhinney & Sergei Bobrovsky
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