We’ve seen this movie before – it’s an even year and the San Francisco Giants are one of baseball’s best teams. Should we just hand over another World Series trophy to them and get it over with?
There are quite a few teams out there begging to differ – mainly in Chicago, Texas and New York, among others – but it’s hard to ignore the even-year trend going on in the Bay area. Whether the organization puts any stock into it or not, nobody can deny they’ve come out swinging since the end of last year.
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Not only have they locked up homegrown players like Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt to affordable long-term deals, they bolstered big needs in the outfield with Denard Span and the front of the rotation by flanking Madison Bumgarner with Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija.
Despite up-and-down results throughout Spring Training, that aggressiveness on the hot stove has led to success on the field. Manager Bruce Bochy has watched his club build a 3.5-game lead in the National League West with a 35-24 record.
As well as the Giants have played through the first two months, things are about to get more difficult. Like most contending teams, there are concerns about specific parts of the roster. With outfielder Hunter Pence anticipated to miss at least two months with a hamstring tear, those concerns are only amplified.
Consistency at the top of San Francisco’s rotation could continue propelling them toward another trip to October, but how far could they go if roster concerns aren’t addressed at the trade deadline? Could they get past the Chicago Cubs or Pittsburgh Pirates? How about the Washington Nationals or the New York Mets? Those potential weaknesses turn it into a legitimate question.
The Giants were uncharacteristically one of the top spenders this past winter by committing nearly $300 million to Cueto, Samardzija and Span, but it probably won’t be enough. There doesn’t appear to be a lot of opportunity in the trade market this summer, but if they want a chance at continuing that even-year trend, they’ll have to once again make big splashes.
What are San Francisco’s projected needs before the calendar flips to August 1? They lie in the bullpen, in the outfield and at the back of the starting rotation.
Bullpen
The problem: Santiago Casilla has mostly been holding down the ninth inning as Bochy’s closer, but he’ll be hitting free agency at year’s end. Meanwhile, Sergio Romo has missed basically the entire year with a flexor strain in his elbow, so it’d be better to think of him as a bonus instead of depending on his return. The bullpen has been OK as a collective group, but they could definitely use some help.
Why making a move makes sense: There will be limited options in the trade market overall, but Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe points out that probably won’t be the case when it comes to relief arms.
In a perfect world, the best fit would be: Andrew Miller. He’s been absolutely off the charts during his time with the New York Yankees, and he best thing of all is he doesn’t actually care what his bullpen role is. He just wants to pitch.
Also, he wouldn’t be a rental player. Miller is under contract through the end of 2018, and when you get a glimpse at his production, no team would mind spending $9 million per year for him. This kind of acquisition would help right now and also soften the blow of Casilla’s impending free agency.
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Outfield
The problem: There’s not a lot of proven depth, and it’s not getting any easier with Pence and Angel Pagan both on the shelf.
Pagan got off to a good start this season (.275/.338/.383 in 120 at-bats) and is anticipated to return from a strained hamstring within the next week or two. However, what’s more concerning is trying to figure out how they’ll make it through the next couple months without Pence’s leadership and production (.298/.375/.486 with seven homers, 36 RBI in 181 at-bats).
Why making a move makes sense: This is actually one area where they could try getting by with internal options. Mac Williamson and Jarrett Parker are around to help, but neither is proven at the big-league level yet.
If they want to stretch the current roster even more, Kelby Tomlinson and/or Belt could spend some time in the outfield, as well. Whatever the final decision is, the Giants will at least investigate the trade market, which has already been discussed.
In a perfect world, the best fit would be: Chris Carter. It sounds kind of ridiculous, but if Belt can still handle the outfield, Carter could inject a little more power into the lineup. He isn’t a huge commitment (currently on a one-year, $2.5 million deal), probably wouldn’t be a huge sacrifice prospect-wise and could provide some pop off the bench once Pence proves healthy upon his return.
Ryan Braun has become a popular name, but his contract isn’t very friendly. Jay Bruce is off to a great start, but the Cincinnati Reds will likely look for a decent return. Carter can serve as a band-aid, which is what San Fran really needs.
Is he the perfect fit? Definitely not. He strikes out a ton, but the Giants don’t strike out very much as a group (29th in baseball with 376 Ks). Although Carter’s 14 homers in 203 at-bats can be partially attributed to playing home games at Miller Park (10 of his 14 total bombs), the pros could outweigh the cons here for a short-term solution.
Starting Rotation
The problem: With MadBum, Cueto and Samardzija, the front three spots in the rotation appear to be rock solid. The last two spots, however, are anything but. The collective group has performed well from a numbers perspective and both Jake Peavy and Matt Cain have shown signs of life, but it’s not something the coaching staff can depend on.
Chris Heston was the anticipated insurance policy, but he’s struggled so far in 2016 during a cup of coffee in the big leagues and also down in Triple-A.
Why making a move makes sense: Depending on that strong front three will work in a short series, but it’s doubtful Bochy wants to lean on them as heavily as he did with Bumgarner during San Francisco’s 2014 title run. Having a dependable fourth starter would be awfully nice if they can swing it.
In a perfect world, the best fit would be: Rich Hill. The Oakland Athletics are falling out of contention, and while it’s still undetermined if Billy Beane will make Sonny Gray available, it’d be shocking if he doesn’t cash in on Hill. He’s 8-3 with a 2.25 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 74 strikeouts in 64 innings of work.
He’s only under contract through the end of 2016 with a $6 million total salary, making it very manageable from a financial perspective. However, Beane’s price is still unknown, and rumors are flying that Billy Butler (along with the rest of his three-year, $30 million deal) will have to be included. So, that could certainly complicate things.
San Francisco’s offseason aggressiveness has paid dividends through the first two months of 2016, but there’s still work to be done if they want to capture more October glory. As long as the Dodgers stay within an earshot in the standings, they’ll be active before the deadline. So, it behooves the Giants to strengthen their weaknesses to not only keep a firm hold on the NL West, but also prepare to battle the NL’s other top teams.
Now it’s just a matter of which players will be available and how aggressive the front office wants to be.
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