Pitt + 3
We are finally getting to the point in the season where we can start looking at some statistics that actually mean something. One of the things I like to do is attempt to compare offensive and defensive numbers against the opponents each team has played.
In this case we have a fairly battle tested Pittsburgh team getting a FG at home against a Louisville team who has played one meaningful game all season (and that was at home versus North Carolina). After eliminating FCS stats from both teams I actually give both the offensive and defensive edge in this game to Pitt.
Offensively the Panthers are averaging 432 ypg vs teams that allow 397, whereas Louisville is averaging 380 ypg vs teams that allow 388 (-8 ypg vs their opponents defensive season avg). I also give senior QB Tino Sunseri an edge in the passing game over sophomore Teddy Bridgewater. Tino has a 156.47 PE ratio vs teams that allow 125.27. Teddy has a 150.65 PE, but that is against defenses that allow 140.47.
More importantly from my perspective I give the defensive edge to Pitt. I always like getting a good defensive team at home plus points. Pitt is only allowing 20.67 ppg vs teams that avg 28.86. Louisville is allowing 21.50 ppg to teams that only avg 25.49 ppg.
Pittsburgh has already lost their first two Big East games, both on the road, so they cannot afford to lose another, especially at home. Louisville has struggled in their last two away games against non-BCS competition. So in a game that figures to be defensive in nature and low scoring, I’ll take the home team with the slightly better statistical defense. Getting 3 points is just gravy, but I’ll take them.
Pitt 24 Louisville 23
Make sure to check out The Saturday Edge website and follow them on Twitter @SaturdayEdge. It’s a great site where college football handicapping enthusiasts can exchange useful betting strategies, tips, ideas and information. They have great football analysis and are also a great place to go if you want to read up on betting or get some advice. You can also sign up for their newsletter at their site. So far they have hit on their “best bet” predictions for Oregon State/Wisconsin, Nebraska/Southern Miss, Colorado St/Utah St, Colorado/UCLA, and Michigan/Purdue and have a streak of five in a row for their weekly best bets.
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