Schilling: 2004 vs. 2006

Curt Schilling is 4-0 and Red Sox Nation couldn?t possibly be any happier. Another stellar performance was handed to the Devil Rays last night at Fenway, with Schilling helped by the first relaxing blowout of the season we all have prayed for. Last night was a beautiful sight, not only because we witnessed an offensive explosion in the third inning, but Kelly the Ball Girl received ample camera time. Also, it?s just a pleasure watching Curt Schilling pitch when he?s locked in- he blows that third strike past a helpless Tampa hitter and the Fenway crowd goes crazy. He walks off the field like nothing happened, calmed, focused, ready for the next inning already. When this guy?s good, this guy is friggin good.

Schilling’s fastballs are being clocked at around 95 MPH (albeit by the somewhat-tinkered NESN radar gun), and he?s off to his best start ever. The command is better than ever and opposing batters are beginning to go down like flies. Does this remind anyone of 2004? Could Schilling really be back to full health, ankle healed 100% so he can’t even feel it, contending for the Cy Young like in 2004? Here?s the comparison of how Schilling started in 2004 compared to 2006.

Those are more of the basic statistics. Two stand out to me- strikeouts and pitches per game. While Schilling pitched only one more inning in his first four starts in 2004 than 2006, he struck out 8 more hitters. This shows that in 2006 is arm is not at the level it was two years ago, so he?s getting hitters out more conventionally. His walk total is down. WHIP is down, and he?s given up 14 less hits in only one less inning. This shows Schilling’s command is strong, and as he?s talked about lately, he?s as smart mentally as he?s ever been during his career.

Schilling is throwing more pitches per at-bat likely because his strikeout totals are down, but it?s actually not that different in terms of K/9. Opponents are hitting at a lower average in 2006 and slugging less, countering in a lower OPS as well. Looking at these similar numbers, maybe Schilling is really primed to contend for a Cy Young this season. Unfortunately, judging by the numbers and the fact he can?t finish 43-0, he?s going to start losing some games. His arm strength is not at 2004-form, but his command and overall intelligence when pitching has improved. This means when Schilling has a rough day hitting his spots, something he hasn?t come over yet, he will likely falter. This is normal with any pitcher, but at Schilling?s point in his career, it?s especially evident.

Schilling is winning in a different style than 2004, and I?m fine with that. We’ve got a much, MUCH improved defense from the first-half of 2004 when we were up near the top of baseball in errors committed. This year, the likes of Alex Gonzalez, Mike Lowell and Mark Loretta prowl a Gold-Glove infield. Again, with Schilling?s strikeout numbers down and more balls hit into play, this will help him greatly.

Oh and… Wakefield vs. Kazmir tonight. Let?s bring out the brooms.

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