Which quarterbacks could have their draft stock highly inflated thanks to Cam Newton’s play?
Which quarterbacks will be ones that a team or two will fall in love with this year?
The MAC conference has some fantastic juniors. And Top 10 quarterbacks in the FBS with top passing efficiency.
Everyone Wants the Next Cam Newton
Last year’s rookie of the year, Cam Newton of the Panthers, may have started a trend in drafting quarterbacks that many won’t be ready for. Teams will want bigger, physical quarterbacks who can hang in the pocket, stay athletic as runners, and have long-term upside as a power, downfield passer.
Finding the next Cam Newton is not something any team conceivably thinks they can or will do. But teams will likely begin to take this stance on drafting a quarterback, especially after round one: If he’s Cam Newton, perfect. If not, but can be 70-80% of Cam Newton, he’s worth the risk.
I’ve targeted four quarterbacks that could have teams thinking Cam Newton for the 2013 draft. The most prevalent and pre-season hype driven one is Virginia Tech’s Logan Thomas. One of the top high school recruits as a tight end, he’s now the 2nd year starter at Virginia Tech. He’s not nearly as polished as a pocket passer as Newton in terms of downfield accuracy or consistent mechanics, but he does have more experience making reads from the pocket and being more decisive in making reads on the move. He could be jostling for the top overall pick completely thanks to Newton’s success if he has an adequate and improving season, both of which are safe predictions to have.
With Thomas being the only junior on the list, the top senior who could have some NFL GMs salivating for Cam Newton is another ACC quarterback: Florida State’s EJ Manuel. The 6’5, 240 pound athlete was a top recruit out of high school, and only last year did he flash brilliance as a quarterback. He needs work with his release follow-through, being more decisive on 2nd and 3rd level routes, better velocity control in the mid-field, and keeping balance on all of his throws. Still, he’s an elite, almost Cam level athlete as a quarterback, and certainly could reach that ceiling this year.
Two more senior quarterbacks have a chance to intrigue as Cam Newton-types. Marquis Gray of Minnesota lacks a lot polish in his footwork, velocity control, and decisiveness as a downfield passer to be an NFL quarterback right now. But he’s developed substantially since being a receiver his first year, and if he can provide wildcat/receiver help early on, he could be a worthwhile project. Colin Klein of Kansas State is maybe a bit more similar to Tim Tebow as a quarterback, but his powerful running style and uniqueness as a winning quarterback, he could be a similar product as Tim Tebow early, with a more Newton-level style as a passer in the future.
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Quarterback Prospects You May Not Love, But Some NFL Team Will 
Ryan Tannehill. Nick Foles. Andy Dalton. Josh Freeman.
Every draft, a team or two falls in love with a certain quarterback prospect that many fans either don’t understand or are shocked how highly they are drafted. Why is that? Because teams get excited when a quarterback has a certain few characteristics that either can’t be taught or has very correctable issues as a passer.
This year, three quarterbacks stand out as prospets I like quite a bit, and though they may not get a lot of in-season hype, I’d be surprised if at least one or two NFL teams didn’t few at least one of these quarterbacks higher than you’d believe.
The first is Syracuse quarterback Ryan Nassib. He’s a bit slow and deliberate in his drop back and can overthrown passes with frustrating frequency. But he has three qualities NFL teams will love. His head coach is Doug Marrone, former New Orleans Saints offensive coordinator, which shows it’s value in his consistent fundamentals and footwork. He’s got a fantastic arm that he’s not afraid to use and is prolific in short area and downfield passes along with having a great understanding of using his mechanics. And finally, he’s a gunslinger who is decisive in his decisions and has a quick release. He’ll remind teams of a more polished, less athletic Jay Cutler. Don’t be shocked if he’s a 2nd rounder or an early 3rd rounder.
The next quarterback to watch is Mike Glennon of NC State. He’s got a quick, easy release that he keeps with consistent mechanics and always on balance. He doesn’t have great mobility and is a bit too stiff at times as he moves subtly in the pocket. He does do a great job in adjusting his feet to keep his balance well, he anticipates routes and throwing lanes well, and has a live arm to get downfield. If Nick Foles can excite one team to be a 3rd rounder, Glennon can do all Foles can with more consistency and less need to be in a rhythm.
Finally, a small school quarterback is one that NFL Draft fans should get to know. Brad Sorensen of Southern Utah is more than just a “sleeper” that the occasional draft fan should know. He’s a legitimate Top 60 pick and a guy that already looks like a guarantee to be an All-Star invite. He’s a few quotes from Optimum Scouting’s Mark Dulgarian, who’s scouted Sorensen quite a bit already:
“He’s a good athlete, gets zip on his throws outside the numbers, poise in the pocket, and has great ball placement, anticipation, and accuracy on intermediate throws. Coming from a shotgun system, his footwork is an issue. He played in a lot of clean pockets, something he won’t have the luxury of having in the NFL. He needs to be more consistent with his progressions, and the risks he takes may be an issue against better competition. His eye control is only average. His timing, arm talent, ball placement, and athleticism is what will really have teams excited, and we won’t be able to get true grade until he’s forced to drop back and goes against more consistent safeties/corners.”
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MAC Junior Studs
(This is an excerpt from my recent article over at Miami Dolphins Draft that profiled all the Top MAC Juniors after studying them on film. See the entire article here: http://www.miamidolphinsdraft.com/2012/06/2013-nfl-draft-macs-top-junior-prospects/)
1. Khalil Mack, OLB, Buffalo
An explosive, upper body powerful outside rusher, Mack consistently separates himself from a blocker and shifts his eyes to the quarterback or ball carrier with good full-body balance. He has the ability to get low, drive and bend outside, and use his lower body strength to drive underneath and close down to the inside. He has fantastic change of direction and balance as he repositions his rushes, but could better utilize that for counter rush moves or to set himself up against upfield blockers that attack him.
2. Roosevelt Nix, DT, Kent State
An aggressive, consistently penetrating inside rusher, Roosevelt has been over-matching MAC offensive linemen for years now, and will finally be on the national scene (hopefully) this year as a legit NFL prospect. Undersized at just 6’0, 244 (listed), he’ll need to prove he can add weight, stay nimble and powerful upfield, and hold the point of attack more consistently in the run game when he can’t get initial penetration.
3. Marlon Pollard, CB, Eastern Michigan
The former UCLA transfer, Pollard is both a physical cornerback and a solid punter returner. With more focus and NFL potential as a cornerback, Pollard does a great job of staying physical in both press and as he turns and runs downfield, staying tight and using his hands well to feel the receiver. He can be a little slow or overaggressive as the route breaks, especially downfield, but has solid catch-up speed to make up for it when the throw doesn’t have ample velocity.
4. Nick Harwell, WR, Miami (OH)
With NFL prospect Zac Dysert at quarterback, I’d expect another big year for Nick Harwell and for him to emerge as the feature playmaker in the MAC with Eric Page of Toledo and Jordan White of Western Michigan gone. He’ll thrive with Dysert again this year thanks to his explosive change of direction with the ball in his hands and the ability to run great downfield routes, whether they be double moves or just driving off his inside foot and getting vertical. He catches away from his body very well, and has great balance in the open field and along the sidelines. He’ll need to bulk up and become a more consistent inside route runner to be a legit NFL prospect in the future.
5. Matt Schilz, QB, Bowling Green
Now in his fourth year with the team in the same offense, Schilz looks confident and poised as a passer in this system. The quickest release of any quarterback in the MAC, Schilz gets the ball out with good velocity, especially on the move, but he could use better mechanics consistently to generate more force downfield. Still, he does a fantastic job trusting his arm and vision in the middle of the field and shows touch between levels.
6. Brandon Oliver, RB, Buffalo
Oliver’s powerful build, and lower body force and balance allow him to drive defenders consistently and shed through arm tackles well. He also keeps great bad leve, adding to the benefit of his 5’8 height in the defense’s lack of vision to find him. He shows patience up and through the hole, and gets to his top speed (albiet not that fast) quickly after his burst. He flashes some one-cut and power moves in the open field, but lacks great change of direction or shiftiness to make him an every down back in the NFL.
7. Terrence Owens, QB, Toledo
Battling for a starting job with Austin Dantin (another junior), Owens seems to me like the more pure pocket passer and the best option for the team. With a composed, effortless release that’s tight and compact (though could get a little higher at release point), he has the vision in how a defense attacks each play to make multiple progressions easily and feel his check-downs on time. He utilizes play fakes and subtle movements in the pocket to alter the defense’s position, and steps into and drives throws well downfield. A complete passer, Owens needs to bulk up a little more, use his body more effectively to gain velocity on his short routes, and overall get more accuracy on 15+ passes, especially on the outside.
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Top 10: Quarterback Passing Efficiencies Returning in the FBS
To stay with the quarterbacking theme of the Scouting Notebook, I found it interesting how related passing efficiency was to NFL success. Here are the Top 10 returning passing efficiency leaders at the FBS level, and you’ll notice some likely Top 50 picked NFL quarterback prospects.
1. Terrence Owens, Toledo (JR) (169.24)
2. Keith Price, Washington (JR) (161.93)
3. Matt Barkley, USC (161.22)
4. Bryn Renner, North Carolina (JR) (159. 44)
5. Casey Pachall, TCU (JR) (157.98)
6. Blaine Gautier, Louisiana (153.60)
7. Riley Nelson, BYU (152.93)
8. Geno Smith, West Virginia (152.69)
9. EJ Manuel, Florida State (151.24)
10. Tyler Wilson, Arkansas (148.35)
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