In this edition of the Scouting Notebook, we’ll take a look at the “updated” decisions juniors have to make after their coaches have since been fired, and what that means for their future.
Also, I’ll re-examine the junior quarterback class (include two non-BCS quarterbacks that could consider the jump), some general scouting notes from Cincinnati, South Florida, Notre Dame, Michigan, and Pittsburgh, and the Top 10 Career Carry Totals for running backs currently in the NFL Draft.
Which Juniors Could Consider NFL Strongly Head Coaches Now Fired
Tennessee – With Derek Dooley (not unexpectedly) gone this year, it opens up the door for many one of the most interesting dynamics this college football “off-season”. After going the lesser known, hungry young coach route, Tennessee will likely aim big for their next head coach, with the obvious prize (and worth throwing the money at) in Jon Gruden. But the question turns to this: Does the impact of the new hire (including if it’s Gruden) have any implication on if Tyler Bray, Justin Hunter, and Cordarrelle Patterson go to the NFL? Patterson is maybe the most likely because of concerns over his grades, but Bray and Hunter would be wise to stay if Gruden or another established, pro-tied head coach comes in, as they’ll go from “worth the risk” 2nd rounders to “likely” mid to high 1st rounders if they take to coaching.
Auburn – Gene Chizik has been half out the door for most of the second half of the season, meaning that Auburn’s clear cut top prospect (a junior) Corey Lemonier has had ample time to consider his NFL future. Lemonier would be a shock to stick around, as he may get into the mid 1st round mix based on the juniors who declare and how he works out. Also, defensive tackle Jeff Whitaker could consider the move with Chizik gone.
California – With his half-brother quarterback Zach Maynard a senior and already set to be gone next year, Keenan Allen is all but gone (if he wasn’t already). If he can overcome his injury, which our own Dovonte Edwards wrote about a week ago, he should be the first receiver taken in the 2013 NFL Draft.
Purdue – After a better than some may give it credit for season, Purdue is now moving on from it’s head coach and may lose two solid juniors along with a host of defensive players as well. Kawan Short’s running mate on the inside Bruce Gaston didn’t quite match Short’s production, but impressed in his own right as well, and may be a mid to late round pick himself. Also, cornerback Ricardo Allen doesn’t have elite size, but he’s active as a cornerback and can react well in the short area. Both could strongly consider the draft if they feel the Purdue team isn’t going to get much better.
Colorado – The only junior I can see consider to leave early (unlikely if an adequate head coach comes in) is receiver Paul Richardson. After playing as well as he could based on the QB play the past two years, the former Top 20 high school receiver recruit could move onto the NFL. Still, if he does that, he’ll need a great work out to be a 2013 NFL Draft pick.
NC State – The most obvious junior (who likely has already made up his mind up) to declare for the draft with the Tom O’Brien firing is cornerback David Amerson. After being highly touted by some in the pre-season, Amerson’s draft stock settled down this year. Still one of the better cornerbacks in the upcoming draft who finished his season fairly strong, Amerson should be a solid Top 2 rounder. Also, a darkhorse to consider the draft is Art Norman, a bit of an undersized defensive end who’s athletic and active to the backfield. He’d be a mid to late rounder, however, depending on his workout.
Boston College – The only prospect who could consider the NFL Draft is outside linebacker Steele Divitto, but he’s not even the best linebacker on his own team (that would be Nick Clancy). Highly unlikely he declares eve with the Frank Spaziani firing.
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Revisiting the Junior Quarterbacks: Lackluster Group Should Have Zero 1st Rounders
Based on pre-season reports, this quarterback draft class was set to be elite. Matt Barkley atop the rankings of quarterbacks and Top 25 polls. Geno Smith a trendy pick for the “breakout” quarterback of the year. Tyler Wilson returning after flirting with NFL last year. Logan Thomas and Tyler Bray oozing of upside and would finally make it all “click” this year. It was all set to be a fantastic class that would make teams regret taking Ryan Tannehill and Brandon Weeden. Well, it didn’t quite work that way. Seven quarterbacks from last year are getting playing time now, with Nick Foles and Ryan Lindley showing very few positives but Luck, RGIII, Tannehill, Russell Wilson, and Weeden all showing great upside and promising futures at times.
Focusing on the juniors (as the seniors are a different headache altogether), the quarterback class has been anything but elite. Or even “solid”. Tyler Bray hasn’t overcome his inconsistencies, and it’s been actually worse than in 2011 at times. He doesn’t check down well thanks to not reading pre-snap well. He forces the ball down the field, sometimes inaccurately and almost always just hoping Justin Hunter makes a play. And his technique, footwork, and ball placement has still be an issue. He has obvious talent and if he does declare (see above), he won’t fall out of the 2nd round, but he’ll need a lot of development before he’s an NFL starter.
Logan Thomas faced a ton of pressure coming into this season. I know of many NFL teams that made it clear to Virginia Tech (and indirectly, to Thomas) that he was a projected and potential Top 10-15 pick. After losing two of best three receivers and his running back, the pressure was on Thomas to go from a well-built, high ceiling athlete to the next Cam Newton. A quiet, reserved quarterback (who is smart off the field and has other businesses who would love to have him on THEIR team), Thomas struggled to develop this season. Still, if he does declare, he also won’t fall out of the top three rounds, and is well worth the risk in that area.
Our top rated junior quarterback is Georgia’s Aaron Murray, who has been impressive in the little things you want your quarterback to do as he transitions to the next level. He’s more than adequate on the move. He protects the ball and has great ball placement in the short and mid-area. And he’s played well when called upon this year to lead his team to the SEC Championship game. He may not be a “flashy” pick, but for a draft that is desparate for starter-worthy guys, Murray certainly fits that bill.
After those Big Three, you get into the “shouldn’t declare but very well could” sector. AJ McCarron of Alabama has impressed myself and Optimum Scouting’s Alex Brown all season, but not enough to be a Top three round “lock”, even though we agree that’s where his value is. Tajh Boyd has also wowed this year, and he may consider the NFL if his offensive coordinator Chad Morris leaves. Boyd possesses fantastic tough, and may compare favorably to a Russell Wilson with a better arm. LSU’s Zach Mettenberger has finally come on in the second half of the year, and if that alone was the judge, he’d be the 2nd or 3rd best junior quarterback. However, it’d be unwise for him to assume that a handful of games is enough to declare for the NFL Draft. And finally, Derek Carr of Fresno State and David Fales of San Jose State have shown fantastic arm strength, size, aggressiveness, and better than you’d expect ball placement/timing to possible be darkhorses to consider the 2013 Draft, though they most likely will stay and be fringe 1st rounders with another year of development.
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General Scouting Notes
-While he’s made it clear he’s not a quarterback at the next level, Denard Robinson’s running ability has consistently impressed to the point that it’ll be a surprise if he’s not a Top 5 round pick as a running back/receiver at the next level. A tremendous talent that has maybe shown a bit more with Devin Gardner filling in for Michigan.
–Manti Te’o is simply awesome. Not only is he the Heisman winner in my books (and had the best defensive season maybe in college football history, all things considered), but he’s making a case to be a Top 5-10 pick despite the linebacker position generally not worth that value. Luke Kuechly has been very impressive and his performance as the 9th overall pick could make teams in the Top 5 strongly consider adding an impact linebacker/leader like Te’o.
-While I expected Rutgers’s linebacker Khaseem Greene to contain his half brother Ray Graham of Pittsburgh in their game this past weekend, it was Graham who impressed the most. Graham has been on NFL radars and had the NFL dream in his mind the past two seasons, and as long as his knee checks out, he should be a 2nd-3rd round selection thanks to his big play ability and fantastic cuts in the open field.
-For the Cincinnati Bearcats, a strong offensive performance was turned in by running back George Winn, who is really coming on in the last half of his senior season. Winn possesses good size (5110, 210), and is a hard nosed, between the tackles runner, who is now over 1100 rushing yards for the season, leading the Big East with a 105.3 yards per game average. Running with good forward lean, he was strong through initial contact, and highly effective when he got his shoulders square to the line. Though not shifty, he demonstrated solid burst up the middle and plus leg drive and second effort on each of his two touchdowns, where he carried multiple defenders into the endzone. A natural receiver, who gets turned upfield quickly, Winn also displayed soft hands, and was active in the passing game, on screens and swings. Ideally suited to zone blocking scheme, Winn finished with 119 yards on the ground, for a 5.7 yards per carry average, to go along with his 2 scores. Although not a highly regarded prospect at the start of the season, he looks like a solid UDFA prospect, who should get a camp invite and have a good shot at making an NFL squad.
–Travis Kelce, Cincinnati’s leading receiver, added to his strong season, with 7 receptions for 58 yards and a touchdown. A decisive route runner, who gets into patterns quickly, Kelce moves well for his size and displayed good hands and the tendency to catch balls off his frame. Though not explosive in and out of breaks, he exhibited the knack for finding soft spots in zones, and showcased excellent body control, hauling in several poorly thrown balls, where he had to adjust in midair, including a short seam route for a touchdown. At 6060, he’s a natural red zone target, highly proficient on back of the endzone fades. Versus South Florida, he also was a willing and solid blocker, looking sound lining up blocks in space, serviceable inline against defensive ends, and even recorded a flashy upending block on a wide receiver screen, where he flashed athleticism and physicality in the open field.
-Recording a game-leading 14 tackles, Greg Blair is a fiery competitor, with a knack for making big plays. Though possessing just average speed, range, and change of direction ability, Blair is smart, takes proper angles to the ball, and nimbly moves around blockers. Versus the Bulls, he showcased suddenness off the ball as a stand-up rusher, blitzing off the corner for a tackle for loss and a forced fumble. He also flashed a power rush to beat a Cincy offensive tackle for a key ½ sack at the end of the first half. Though not a sideline to sideline player, Blair has good short area quickness, which he exhibited by blowing up a third down shovel pass in the red zone. And, he doesn’t miss tackles, recording over 100 for the season so far. Blair appears to be fully recovered from the injury that robbed him of most of his 2011 season. He could seek a medical redshirt, and return to Cincinnati, where he would be one of the Big East’s top defenders next season, or he could enter the draft after this season, where he would be a draftable inside linebacker worthy of a late round flier.
–Dan Giordano is a high-motor, through the whistle player, who significantly picked up his play after Cincinnati’s defensive leader Walter Stewart went down with an upper body injury several games before. Though he lacks upper body strength, and the flexibility to bend coming around the corner on a rush, Giordano displayed the ability to consistently set the edge, and he persistently battled inside versus the run. In the passing game, he got pressure on a counter swim move back inside, and recorded a key third quarter pass break-up.
-John Williams is a rugged fireplug inside, who followed coach Butch Jones to Cincinnati from Central Michigan. Though he doesn’t overpower at the point of attack, he demonstrated the ability to be a stout run defender, and showcased impressive motor and hustle, repeatedly working downfield to chase plays down from behind, recording 6 tackles from his interior lineman position. Williams can also play on the other side of the line of scrimmage, a trait that he flashed on an explosive “A” gap penetration, where he broke up a play in the backfield, forcing a fumble that was recovered by Cincinnati deep in the South Florida end.
-For South Florida, nose tackle Cory Grissom was an impact player throughout the game, establishing himself as a potential late round draft prospect. Possessing a strong lower core, and playing with a solid, wide base, Grissom was an immovable object inside, demonstrating the ability to withstand a doubleteam. Getting his hands out quickly, he also used a strong bullrush for an early quarterback flush, powered the offensive guard 5 yards into the backfield, for a disrupting hurry, and, on another occasion, blew through the line for a seven yard tackle for loss.
-As the Bulls’ leading tackler for the game, with eight, including one for loss, Sam Barrington was an active defender, with a nose for the ball. Though not a true downhill player, and lacking the range to cover the entire field, Barrington demonstrated the ability to stack and shed, and utilized his powerful lower body, driving into the ball carrier, for several physical tackles. He’s a strong in-the-box player, whose limited movement skills in space may limit him to being a two down player at the next level.
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Top 10…Career Running Back Carries
1. Robbie Rouse, Fresno State – 885 carries (1 game left)
2. Montee Ball, Wisconsin – 879 carries (2 games left)
3. Stepfan Taylor, Stanford – 799 carries (2 games left)
4. Zach Line, SMU – 759 carries (1 game left)
5. Jonathan Franklin, UCLA – 755 carries (JR) (2 games left)
6. Denard Robinson, Michigan – 700 carries (1 game left)
7. Le’Veon Bell, Michigan State – 639 carries (JR)
8. Andre Ellington, Clemson – 610 carries (2 games left)
9. Rex Burkhead, Nebraska – 600 carries (2 games left)
10. Cameron Marshall, Arizona State – 571 carries (1 game left)
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