Week 1 is here and you guys know what that means: Falcons hate weak has arrived!!! The New Orleans Saints will be visiting their division rival and ‘little brothers’ the Atlanta Falcons this Sunday to kick off the 2014 season. I am tempted to engage in a great deal of hyperbole outlining exactly how terrible this Falcons team has the potential to be. However, as much amusement as I would garner from such an activity, it’s not worth my time to write, nor your time to read, something any slightly inebriated fan can point out all on their own. As amusing as cracking jokes about them for some odd 1200 words would be…lets actually take a look at the team the Falcons are going to field on Sunday.
The Falcons were a 4-12 team last year for a number of reasons, but Falcon fans for the most part blame two things; a lack of toughness (crusade, cough, crusade), and a number of significant injuries. The Falcons lost all-world receiver Julio Jones, inside linebacker Sean Weatherspoon, and perpetual potential Darwin award candidate Roddy White was in and out of the injury report all season. There is no question that the loss of key players was a major contributor to the Falcons fall from grace last season. The real question is whether or not it was the biggest reason for their collapse…here’s a clue: it wasn’t. The Falcons run something they like to call the ‘Ferrari offense’, but if that is the case it’s pretty hard to win races when you are driving with a busted axel (if any of you are car guys and think it was a poor analogy…I am not and didn’t know so apologies).
The Falcons are a team that always plays the Saints tough for a number of reasons. It’s a division rivalry, the fan bases hate each other for the most part, the players aren’t fond of one another, the Falcons hate the little brother moniker and play harder because of it. But no matter how much they may hate it, the fact remains Drew Brees is 13-3 against them since coming to NO. The games almost always come down to the final drive, but also tend to result in Saints victories (except that one time scooter decided to give them one).
Enough of a history lesson though, the Falcons match up with the Saints poorly on paper and their record reinforces that. They attempted to cover for their weakness against the run (31st) by signing players who specialize against it. There are two run heavy offenses in the division so this is a move that makes a lot of sense, especially Soliai who is a monster on the interior. The Saints have repeatedly shown that they have every intention of being more balanced this year, and if that is their intent they must find a way to neutralize the Falcons run stuffers. Their potential to stop the run as well as the explosive potential of their passing offense makes them a legitimate threat if they are able to carry out their gameplan.
On the other hand what are the areas that the Saints are most likely to attack? There are three enormous gaping holes in the Falcons team that are both a result of poor team management and a bad matchup with the Saints. The first major weakness is the Falcons total lack of an intimidating pass rush; certainly Kroy Biermann and Osi Umenyiora have the ability to get to the QB…but neither is enough of a match-up problem to warrant significant game planning.
The second weakness, and the one I think the Saints are going to attack all day long, is Atlanta’s questionable at best secondary. They do have two very talented and promising young corners in Trufant and Alford, however as Rob Ryan of the Saints has been quick to realize the NFL of today is more reliant on Safeties than corners. That isn’t to say a great corner doesn’t help, but when facing a team with an elite playmaker at the TE position, not having strong safety play is a death sentence. The Falcons desperately tried to sign two safeties currently on the Saints roster; they wanted Jairus Byrd (but Mickey and Sean simply don’t let their guy leave without a contract) and they also tried to sign away the Saints third safety Rafael Bush. Both moves show that they are less than confident in William Moore and company. Both Jimmy Graham and Brandin Cooks will salivate at any route that has them attacking the Falcons safeties on deep routes. The key to getting big plays against any team is to give your quarterback enough time to make the throws on point, and on time…with Atlanta’s pass rush that shouldn’t be an issue for the Saints. For those keeping track that means that their two biggest flaws feed into each other.
The third problem area for the Falcons is really their biggest. Ralph Malbrough had the brilliance to compare the Falcons O-line issues to whether or “not having Matt Ryan get run over more times than a pothole in Lakeview” was a good idea. The Saints quietly had one of the best pass rushes in the NFL last year and just inked rising superstar OLB Junior Galette to a 4 year contract extension. The Falcons are equipped to face the Saints in a shootout, and with the amount of talent they have on the offensive side of the ball that is their best chance at victory. However, as I just pointed out the best way to have a successful deep attack is to keep your QB standing, and on the flipside the best way to stop one is to put him on his back…a lot. Losing left tackle Sam Baker puts Rookie left tackle Jake Mathews up against Junior Galette and a very formidable pass rush. The Falcons only prayer in this game is if they can get big plays going that pull young star safety Kenny Vaccaro out of the box. If the Falcons can’t run some semblance of balance on offense then not only is Matty going to take one heck of a beating, but they are going to get the curbstomping I predicted when I scouted them before the preseason. I will mention that their rookie running back Devonta Freeman has looked very good in the preseason and incumbent back Steven Jackson should be looking over his shoulder.
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