Our writers discussed the upcoming season for the league’s lottery teams.
The NBA season starts today, so we asked a couple of our writers what to expect from the lottery teams this year.
Which of last season’s lottery teams could make the playoffs?
Zach Reynolds: Phoenix seems like the obvious answer after coming close to making the playoffs in 2014, but New Orleans is better equipped to jump a few teams and land in the bottom of the Western Conference playoff race. Anthony Davis has emerged as one of the league’s top players, and is surrounded by quality NBA talents in Jrue Holiday, Ryan Anderson and Omer Asik. Production from Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon will only enhance the Pelicans’ chances to leave the lottery.
Gabriel Allen: In the East, the Detroit Pistons and New York Knicks are the two favorites to break out of the lottery. With Indiana and Cleveland essentially swapping spots and the Brooklyn Nets’ potential to fall-off undeniable, it’s possible both teams make the playoffs this year. However, I give the slight edge to the Pistons, mostly because I expect more from the experienced Stan Van Gundy than rookie coach Derek Fisher.
Out West, where it’s significantly more difficult to break into the playoff picture, the Nuggets, Suns and Pelicans all have legitimate odds to make the playoffs. However, I’m taking New Orleans here. Jrue Holiday and Ryan Anderson are ready to return from last season’s injuries, Omer Asik was added to provide budding superstar Anthony Davis help down low, and Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon are both healthy to start the season as well. This team is loaded with firepower—the lineup of Holiday-Gordon-Evans-Anderson-Davis was the best offensive group in the league during the short sample size they were healthy for last season, and though New Orleans struggled defensively last year, the presence of Holiday and Asik (both elite defenders) should help the Pelicans play much stingier D.
Brian Emory: Well obviously Cleveland will make a return to the playoffs this year after signing LeBron James and Kevin Love. Because of that they really don’t count, so I’m going to make a bold prediction and say the Milwaukee Bucks could contend for a playoff spot. I know it sounds absolutely crazy right now, but the East is awful. If Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to get better and Jabari Parker gets out to a big start this team is really going to surprise some people. The team has talent in the backcourt with the likes of Brandon Knight, Kendall Marshall, O.J. Mayo and Nate Wolters. There is also some serious talent in the frontcourt. John Henson and Larry Sanders are both defensive studs and Ersan Ilyasova can stretch the floor. They also have Zaza Pachulia who is a solid big off the bench. This team has depth and young talent; it’s not out of the realm of possibility they get to 38-42 wins and sneak in.
Nick Denning: Cleveland will have an easy time finally getting out of the lottery — Lebron James, and Kevin Love will make that transition smooth. Beyond them however, I think Phoenix could make the playoffs if they stay healthy, and Detroit has an outside chance as well.
Aaron Fischman: Cleveland will, and New York certainly has a chance. I don’t think the Pistons will make the playoffs, but they could. Out West, I like Phoenix, with New Orleans and Denver having an outside shot.
Which of last season’s playoff teams could drop down into the lottery?
ZR: If New Orleans jumps up, one team in the West will fall out. San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Golden State, LA Clippers and Portland are near locks to make the postseason again, leaving three teams fighting for spots 6-8. The one to finish at the bottom of the next group will be Dallas. The Mavericks added Chandler Parsons to replace Shawn Marion and added Tyson Chandler in an upgrade at the center spot, though point guard is a major concern. The Mavs will score, but the team is not built to defend anyone. With a poor start, the team could look to rebuild at the trade deadline.
GA: Indiana is the obvious choice to fall out of the playoff picture in the East. Meanwhile, Brooklyn replaced Paul Pierce and Shaun Livingston with Jarret Jack and Bojan Bogdanovic and Kevin Garnett is a year older. If they’re going to avoid slipping into the lottery, Deron Williams will need to return to near-All-Star form, Mason Plumlee must have a breakout sophomore season (especially in the likely event that Brook Lopez is forced to miss time at some point), and generally speaking, everything has to go right for the Nets. Joe Johnson must re-assume more responsibility scoring the ball, Mirza Teletovic must prove to be a reliable deep threat, and of course—they’ll need to stay healthy. Overall I’d give them no better than a 50-50 shot of making the playoffs again this season.
It’s so deep in the West that any team could fall out of playoff race with enough injury troubles. The Grizzlies nearly missed the playoffs last year due to their early-season struggles minus Marc Gasol, the Mavs spent time on the outside of the picture looking in, the sixth-seeded Warriors were only a few games better than the ninth-seeded Suns, and the Blazers nearly went the entire season without any injuries (and struggled mightily with LaMarcus Aldridge out). Meanwhile, the Rockets brought in Trevor Ariza, but let go of Chandler Parsons, Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin, so they could regress. Apart from the Spurs, Clippers and Thunder (unless Westbrook gets hurt), anyone—yes anyone, can miss out on the playoffs out West.
BE: Due to the injury of Paul George I could see the Pacers dropping into the lottery. George suffered a nasty injury and will be out for a significant period of time. The Pacers still have some solid vets in Luis Scola and David West, but they’ll really need Roy Hibbert to return to 2012-13 form to stay in the hunt for a playoff spot while Paul George is out. The loss of Lance Stephenson leaves the backcourt cupboard pretty bare. Indiana will have guys like George Hill, Rodney Stuckey and C.J. Watson getting significant minutes. This team is going to be pretty bad while Paul George is out.
ND: I said it on a podcast last month and I’m sticking with it — the Houston Rockets could drop. Trevor Ariza was a solid addition but in no way significantly improved them from last season. If Dwight Howard or James Harden were to be sidelined with an injury the Rockets will have a hard time adjusting without them. I also think Brooklyn could drop down — losing Paul Pierce, along with key role players in Shaun Livingston and Andray Blatche will be hard to replicate. They will have to rely more on aging vets Deron Williams and Kevin Garnett, and will hope Joe Johnson can pick up his scoring as well. They have a new coach and an owner who could be looking to sell; things just aren’t stable in Brooklyn right now.
AF: Indiana, last year’s No. 1 seed, might drop out of the playoff picture, considering the losses of Lance Stephenson and Paul George. Even if George plays part of the year, the Pacers might have fallen too far out of it by that point.
Out West, it’s hard to see any team dropping. That said, only six games separated the No. 4 and 9 seeds last season, so almost any of the talented Western teams could surprisingly drop into the lottery except the Spurs, Clippers and Thunder. More likely than not, seven or eight of last year’s Western Conference playoff teams will be there again.
What is your lottery-team related storyline to follow?
ZR: Will tanking be as prevalent? The 2014 draft class was hyped to be one of the best since the draft that produced Lebron James, Dwyane Wade and Carmelo Anthony, among other top players. The 2015 draft, while looking to be solid, does not have star power at the top. The 76ers are set for another attempt to win single-digit games, but other teams may not follow suit if the draft class begins to appear weaker.
GA: Perhaps the most interesting lottery storyline to follow in 2014-15 is that of the Boston Celtics. What are they going to do? They owe the Philadelphia 76ers their first-round pick if they make the playoffs, and given that their big offseason addition was Evan Turner, it seems doubtful that competing for a playoff spot is part of the big plan this season. But what does that mean for All-Star point guard Rajon Rondo, who turns 29 in February, and will be a free agent next summer? Do the C’s realistically plan to compete within the remaining window of his prime? Will he be traded to a team itching to compete for a playoff spot, such as the Sacramento Kings? The Celtics aren’t going to let Rondo walk in exchange for nothing next summer. Or are they?
BE: I’m really interested to see how Derek Fisher does in his first season as coach of the Knicks. Fisher spent a ton of time in the league but has no coaching experience. Luckily for him, he has Carmelo Anthony to help him get eased into things.
ND: I’m interested to watch how much progress the Magic make this season. They have formed a nice, young nucleus of talent, and are looking less of a team that wants to be bad, and more of a team looking to take the next step forward. Unfortunately for Orlando they play in the Southeast Division, which has potentially four playoff teams. Still, any progression made will reflect well on them given how strong the division is.
AF: In the first year of Carmelo Anthony’s new deal and the tenure of head coach Derek Fisher, will the Knicks show significant improvement? At the very least, can they get to .500?
Who will win rookie of the year?
ZR: It’s essentially a toss up between Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker. Both will be thrust into starting roles and forced to be among the top players for Minnesota and Milwaukee this season. Wiggins has Rubio to set him up, which improves his odds some, though Parker seems more likely to be the focal point of Jason Kidd’s offense in year one than Wiggins under Flip Saunders. Both will produce terrific rookie numbers, but Parker will be the one to hoist the trophy.
GA: Jabari Parker will assume the plentiful role required to win Rookie of the Year, and unless he really struggles offensively, he’ll be the first Buck to win ROY since Kareem Abdul-Jabar won the award back in 1970. Parker will probably struggle from deep, with turnovers, and defensively, but he should put up somewhere between 16-19 points to go along with 6-8 rebounds per game. Since Victor Oladipo is out for a month with a facial fracture, Elfrid Payton should have plenty of opportunities to catapult his name into the discussion, Nerlens Noel could do enough damage defensively to enter the conversation, Andrew Wiggins has had a promising preseason, and the Spurs’ Kyle Anderson is my deep-sleeper. Don’t expect Dante Exum, Aaron Gordon or Julius Randle to receive the minutes necessary to make a real case for ROY, but if something were to happen to Carlos Boozer, Randle would become a terrific choice to sneak in and steal ROY.
BE: After being traded Andrew Wiggins is my bet to win this award. In Cleveland he would have been taking back seat to guys like LeBron and Dion Waiters, in Minnesota he’ll be one of their top three options right off the bat. Wiggins will score more this year than he was originally expected to. Combine that with his ridiculous potential on defense and I see him edging out Jabari Parker for this award.
ND: I’m leaning toward Parker; he’s been great at times this preseason, and will receive plenty of playing time this year. Wiggins will compete for the award as well, as will Nerlens Noel.
AF: Jabari Parker
What is the intriguing lottery team to watch this season?
ZR: I am very curious to watch Milwaukee develop throughout the season. The Bucks were dreadful last season but the team has lots of young prospects who could grow into a larger role. Knight, Antetokounmpo, Parker, Henson, Sanders, Mayo and Ilyasova are all NBA caliber players that can be supplemented or replaced by Jared Dudley, Zaza Pachulia and Kendall Marshall throughout the season. Marshall could wind up starting next to Knight in a two-PG backcourt by midseason. The Bucks will not make the playoffs, but will give New York and Brooklyn a run for the eight seed late in the year.
GA: The most intriguing lottery team to watch this season is easily the New Orleans Pelicans. They’re real contenders for a playoff spot despite the fact they play in Southwest division, arguably the best division in the NBA (consisting of the Spurs, Grizzlies, Mavericks, Rockets and Pelicans). Everyone that is sleeping on this team is in for a very rude awakening. Consider this your official warning.
BE: I’m excited to see how the Orlando Magic improve this season. This offseason the Magic added Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton to their growing core of young talent. Victor Oladipo had a very impressive rookie season so I can’t wait to see how he’s gotten better this offseason. Additionally the Magic have young guys like Nikola Vucevic, Tobias Harris, Kyle O’Quinn, Mo Harkless, and Andrew Nicholson who are all talented. I don’t think they’re there quite yet, but in a few years this team could cause some problems.
ND: The Sacramento Kings! If the Kings overachieve a little bit, Boogie Cousins could be in line for his first All-Star appearance. Rudy Gay will get a full season in Sac-town (let’s hope he stays healthy), and Nik Stauskas will be fun to watch as he rains 3-pointers. I’m sad Isaiah Thomas is gone (who will be the new Pizza Guy?) but Darren Collison is less of a shoot-first point guard than Thomas was, which could end up being a better fit. I’m not saying Sacramento is a playoff team, but the Kings could be fun to watch for you east coast viewers looking for a team to follow late at night.
AF: Suns, Hornets and Pistons (I refuse to pick the Cavaliers)
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
