The NL West features baseball’s best pitcher (Clayton Kershaw), catcher (Buster Posey), shortstop (Troy Tulowitzki) and announcer (Vin Scully). It also has some of the game’s top first basemen and a couple elite outfielders to boot. Yasiel Puig is one of the MLB’s most exciting youngsters, Carlos Gonzalez is one of its quietest stars, and Matt Cain and Matt Kemp have near boundless potential and a lot to prove. But, it’s not all about the players. The Dodgers were last season’s division champs and have the game’s highest payroll, the Giants have the most impressive recent history of any team in the game (save maybe the Cardinals), the Padres boast an imposing young starting staff, the Dbacks are the grittiest grinders on earth, and the Rockies…. well the Rockies are there too.
Coming into 2014, the Dodgers fully expect to walk through this division and compete for the World Series, but the Diamondbacks think they’re built to win now and plan on fighting LA tooth ann nail for the division crown. The Giants had some bad luck in 2013 and hope to be better than the incredibly disappointing 86 loss team that they were a year ago, but still have some serious challenges ahead of them. Likewise the Rockies’ pitching is once again going to keep them from making a real go at it. The team to watch out for is San Diego, whose starting staff is well underrated and may shake things up a bit.
Let’s take a look at the way the NL West is likely to play out.
The Prediction:
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- San Diego Padres
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- San Francisco Giants
- Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles will again top the NL West. Thanks in large part to a lack of starting pitching, Arizona will fall short of expectations yet again. The Padres, meanwhile, will be the talk of the league in 2014 as they become this summer’s Cinderella story en route to competing for a playoff bid.
Los Angeles Dodgers, 96-66 1st Place, NL West
Last year, a terrible first two months meant that even though the Dodgers spent most of the summer as the NL’s hottest team they still reached only 92 wins in 2013. They will be even better than that in 2014, though they won’t have the best record in the league (we’ve had St. Louis and Washington each at 97).
The Dodgers roster reads like an All-Star team. Thanks to their payroll, they have what are essentially household names at every position. Their outfield situation–4 legitimate starters (two due more than $100 mill, one at $80 mil, and the fourth, a second place ROY finisher a year ago)–for three spots is the envy of the league.
On top of that, the Dodgers boast a starting rotation so deep that MLB veteran Paul Maholm, a guy with a sub-4.00 ERA in two of the last three seasons, signed on knowing he’d be roughly the 7th starter. Kershaw, the Ace, is best pitcher in baseball. Zach Greinke, the number two, is another $100 million man and would be the best pitcher on almost any other team. Hyun-Jin Ryu was a revelation last season, his first in the MLB, and is a rock solid number three starter. The final two rotation spots will be filled by some combination of Dan Haren, Chad Billingsly, Josh Beckett, and Maholm–three former All-Stars and a solid veteran.
With that rotation, LA might not need to score all that much, but I bet they will anyway. Hanley Ramirez and Adrian Gonzalez join the outfielders in a formidable lineup that will likely be in the top 5-8 in the NL in scoring.
Kenley Jansen, Brian Wilson, JP Howell, Chris Perez, and Brandon League even make up a solid ‘pen.
The weak spots on the Dodgers are definitely at second and third base, and on the bench. Alex Guerrero was recently signed from Cuba to play second but as it doesn’t seem like he will be ready, the job looks like it’ll fall to Dee Gordon. Gordon is blazing fast but his offense and defense have both been suspect during brief stints in the majors. Over at third, the Dodgers seem content with Juan Uribe who’s below average on both sides of the ball but is a clubhouse and fan favorite, and playoff hero. Chone Figgins is the primary backup at both spots and while he has been an All-Star himself, he’s been so bad lately nobody wanted him in 2013. (We disagree with their analysis, but whatever.)
San Diego Padres, 90-72 2nd Place, NL West
The Padres finishing second in the West would be the surprise of the season to be sure. Last year they were tied for third, 10 games under .500 and 16 games out of first. But they have vastly improved.
The changes start with the rotation. Josh Johnson got hurt yesterday and could be out a while with a forearm injury but if he is able to produce at all, it will be the the icing on the cake for a group that everyone will be talking about in 6 months. Andrew Cashner is the Ace of the staff and is poised to make ‘the leap’ into being a star. He quietly posted a 3.09 ERA in 31 games for an underwhelming Padres team last year. He is assisted by: Ian Kennedy, a guy who is perceived to be over the hill but may very well have another good season in him in pitcher-friendly Petco Park; Tyson Ross, a former top prospect who posted a 3.17 ERA last season and is still only 26; and Eric Stults, a 34 year old lefty who has been surprisingly dominant in his two seasons in San Diego.
On offense, Yonder Alonso will have a full season after missing a big chunk to suspension last year, Jedd Gyorko has become one of the game’s best offensive second basemen, blasting 24 homers a year ago, and Will Venable is a speed and power threat in right field. When Cameron Maybin returns from injury, he’ll add some pop and speed as well. Everth Cabrera is a big stolen base guy if he can stave off decline for another year.
The big piece for the Padres will be third basemen Chase Headley. Headley has proven that he is capable of being one of the best third basemen in the entire sport when heathy (he finished 5th in the MVP voting in 2012). Last season was a bit of a disaster, however, as Headley hit .250 with only 13 bombs in just about a full season of play. If he can be his 2012 self in 2014, he can lead this team to success. If he’s a Yankee by August, though, chances are the Padres are making me look pretty stupid.
Arizona Diamondbacks, 84-78 3rd Place, NL West
The Dbacks finished right at .500 for the second straight season in 2013 and they think they’ve improved their roster sufficiently to compete for the NL West crown. I’m not buying it.
After making a play for Masahiro Tanaka and various other top flight starting pitchers to pair with resident Ace Patrick Corbin, Arizona settled on Bronson Arroyo, a back end innings eater. Now, with Corbin out for the season after Tommy John, there is a real dearth of talent in the Dbacks rotation. Wade Miley will get the Opening Day start and he’s joined by Trevor Cahill, Arroyo, Randal Delgado, and Brandon McCarthy. All are perfectly capable starters in the MLB, but none should be above a 3 in any team’s rotation. As a group they will be capable, good enough to guide Arizona to about 84 wins, but not spectacular enough to hang with the big dogs.
The wild card is prospect Archie Bradley. If Bradley makes a splash, he could be a big piece.
On offense, slugger Paul Goldschmidt is joined by newly acquired Mark Trumbo to form a potent right handed power duo. Trumbo, however, is best suited to be a complimentary piece and not as one of the big bats himself. The rest of the offense is profoundly average. Aaron Hill has some pop at second base and Gerardo Parra is a wiz with the glove but there’s no one on this team to make pitchers lose sleep, except maybe Goldschimidt.
Like the offense, the bullpen is nothing special. Brad Zeigler is good and so is Addison Reed, but there will be some bloated numbers among the group. As I said, very average.
On the whole, the Dbacks fail to inspire much confidence. I see them very much as a middle of the road bunch. That could change if they add a front line starter but right now, meh.
San Francisco Giants, 80-82 4th Place, NL West
If my NL West predictions are wrong, the Giants and Padres will be flip flopped in the standings but I just can’t believe in a team that just gave Tim Lincecum more than $30 million.
On offense, San Fran has three big pieces: Buster Posey, the best catcher in the game, Pablo Sandoval, and Hunter Pence. When all are rolling, that’s pretty good but Sandoval and Pence have proved to be less than consistent performers. Brandon Belt has shown flashes but has been a disappointment at first during his time in the majors, Brandon Crawford is an offensive black hole at short and new left fielder Michael Morse is really more of a platoon guy at this point. The Giants have never been known as an offensive powerhouse and this season will be no different.
The Giants hopes live and die with their starting pitching. Matt Cain was hugely disappointing but he has been so dominant in the past that the potential for a resurgence is definitely there. Lincecum, he of the huge new contract, is an enigma. The former Cy Young Award winner has lost more than 10mph off his fastball and has been a bit of a disaster the last two seasons. It’s hard to say what he’ll bring.
Cain and Lincecum are joined by Madison Bumgarner, who could emerge as the next great lefty, Tim Hudson, a serviceable veteran, and Ryan Vogelsong, an average number 5. It’s a group with a huge amount of potential but a very slim chance of actually reaching it. Chances are, the Giants will be middle of the pack in pitching and just slightly below that on offense.
Colorado Rockies, 75-87, 5th Place, NL West
Colorado has the game’s best shortstop (by far) and one of the highest producing outfielders in the league, both playing in a hitter friendly ballpark. Why am I projecting them for a third straight last place finish? The answer: pitching, pitching, pitching.
While Tulo and Cargo do their best to stay healthy power the offense, the Rockies pitching staff continues to torpedo the whole operation by being terrible. They quite frankly have one guy, Jorge De La Rosa, that has any argument about being a starting pitcher. The rest are all fringe starters/long relievers. The possible exceptions are Jhoulys Chacin who can be effective when healthy and Brett Anderson who was good in Oakland but has yet to tangle with the altitude at Coors Field full time.
Besides those three, the outfielders better be ready to run.
The Colorado offense isn’t half bad. In addition to Tulowitzki and Gonzalez, Michael Cuddyer is the reigning batting champ and Willin Rosario packs some serious pop behind the plate. New first basemen Justin Morneau should hold his own and Nolan Arenado could be developing into a premiere third basemen. The problem is that Colorado will have to outscore its opponents every game.
The Rockies are decent but in a division with some of the best starting pitching in the league, climbing out of the basement will be a tall order. This could be another long summer in Denver.
Bold Predictions:
- Matt Kemp has a stellar season, batting .306 with 22 bombs and 14 steals en route to being ‘back.’
- Clayton Kershaw wins the Cy Young…. again
- Tim Lincecum finishes 11-13 with a 4.25 ERA
- Hanley Ramirez plays for someone other than the Dodgers in 2015
- Troy Tulowitzki gets MVP votes this year, and signs with the Yankees next winter
- Dbacks GM Kevin Towers and manager Kirk Gibson get fired
- Mark Trumbo his .257 with 31 homers
- Matt Cain has a sub 3.50 ERA
- The Padres make the playoffs
- Andrew Cashner finishes top 10 in Cy Young voting
-Max Frankel
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