As the dust seems to be settling around the record smashing sale of the Los Angeles Clippers to former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, as soon to be former owner and national pariah Donald Sterling recently commented that he is “all good” with the sale and “ready to move on,” I thought it might be interesting to see where the next tectonic shift in the economics of sports was most likely to happen, and if Seattle could be at the epicenter.
Whenever the topic of moving a franchise or expansion comes up, Los Angeles, with the second largest metropolitan population in the country and no NFL team since the Rams moved to St. Louis prior to the 1995 season, is at the forefront of football discussions.
Seattle, who lost the Supersonics to Oklahoma City in 2008 after ownership became disenchanted with the Emerald City and Washington state for not funding improvements to KeyArena, has been at the center of speculation during all three of the most recent NBA franchise dramas (Kings, Bucks, and Clippers).
And the sentimental favorite to get an NHL franchise is always little Hartford, CT, whose beloved Whalers moved to Greensboro, NC in 1997 and later Raleigh in 1999.
But, which of these cities is most deserving of a second chance with a franchise, or are there cities currently without professional sports that should move to the top of the list when moving a franchise or expansion is discussed?
Looking at cities that currently have at least one of the “big four” sports: NFL, MLB, NBA, or NHL, and then cities with larger populations or metropolitan populations than those cities (and that is pretty exhaustive when you take into account Green Bay, Wisconsin of Packers fame with a population of 104,779 and a metro area population of 312,409), I tried to make some observations about what cities could see a franchise move to them or expect to be awarded a franchise in the event of expansion.
To be a little bit more thorough, I also looked at median age, median household income, education, and percentage of the population below the poverty line. All population figures are 2013 estimates, while all the other figures are from the 2010 Census.
Seattle will be pleased (or displeased depending on how you look at it) to find that it is the largest metropolitan population (Seattle, Tacoma, and Bellevue) in the country with fewer than three of the big four professional sports leagues (and, no, I’m not trying to diss Sounders fans, but soccer really isn’t as big a deal in the heartland as it is in the Pacific Northwest).
With a metro population of 3,610,105, Seattle trails 13 other metro areas, all of which have three or more franchises, notably topped by the New York metropolitan area that supports eight (Giants, Jets, Yankees, Mets, Knicks, Nets, Rangers, and Islanders).
The largest metro areas without any franchises are Las Vegas, with a population of 2,027,868, Austin, TX, with a population of 1,883,051, and Virginia Beach, VA, with a population of 1,707,369.
The case against Las Vegas has always been that there can’t be a professional sports franchise in a place where sports betting is legal. This seems kind of silly and outdated given the prevalence of internet gambling sites, but it is a sentiment that is likely to persist for some time to come.
Austin is an intriguing possibility. Hip and cool, with great cultural events like SXSW, and a median household income of $52,431, the home of the Texas Longhorns could be a great location for a professional sports franchise. The arguments against, of course, are that it is a college town, conditioned to support college sports, especially Longhorn football, and that the state of Texas already has two NFL teams, three MLB teams, three NBA teams, and an NHL team.
The argument against additional franchises based on the number currently in the state doesn’t seem to apply to California, though. With three NFL teams already in the Raiders, 49ers, and Chargers, talk never ceases of either moving the Rams back or another franchise to LA, or including LA on the short list of possible expansion cities.
The surprise, at least for me, on the list of populous metro areas without professional sports, is Virginia Beach. Now, the city itself only has 448,479 but the metro area boasts 1,707,369, and the median household income is an impressive $65,980. With no professional sports in the entire state, Virginia Beach could have some built in rivalries with North Carolina teams to the south and DC and Baltimore teams to the north. Virginia does have a history of pro basketball with the Virginia Squires of the ABA, so perhaps Virginia Beach might be a destination for a current or future NBA franchise.
By concentrating on income, rather than population, the picture shifts slightly. Topping out the list is San Jose, CA, with a median household income of $81,349 (and a healthy metro pop. of 1,919,641). Here there’s only one team, the San Jose Sharks of the NHL. While California has three football teams, four basketball teams, and five baseball teams, the income alone might be the foundation of a solid argument to move to or expand in San Jose.
Virginia Beach pops up again at third in median household income, behind just San Jose and San Francisco. Then there’s Washington DC and San Diego. At sixth, with a median household income of $63,990, is Seattle. So, another strong argument for the NBA or NHL considering Seattle is that there’s enough money to support three or four teams in the area (ok four or five – Sounders’ fan).
Ranking fairly low in income on the list of 66 cities I looked at (see the criteria above), were St. Louis, Cincinnati, Buffalo, Miami, Detroit, and Cleveland. It might be reasonable to assume one or more of these cities may see franchises move in the future. Rumors have swirled around the Rams and Bills in recent years and the Pistons, who actually play in Auburn Hills, not Detroit proper, have seen declining attendance after missing the playoffs five straight years.
While this is by no means an exhaustive examination of the viability of professional sports in cities across America, I did want to at least get a sense of how viable Seattle’s case is for the return of the Supersonics, or even maybe hockey, for that matter. Based on population and income there is a solid argument to be made for a third “big four” franchise in the Emerald City, but also some intriguing cases to be made for some unlikely places, like Virginia Beach, Richmond, or Austin. And, in the wake of the $2 billion dollar sale of the Clippers to Steve Ballmer, it’s safe to think a few NBA owners may be looking to cash in on their investments. Seattle could be the beneficiary.
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