Last week wasn’t my best week against the spread as I went just 1-4 which brings me to 24-19 on the year. Straight up picking last week was a different story as I went 6-0 and brought my season total to 45-6. This week has some really intriguing match-ups and some have dubbed it “seperation Saturday” for the SEC. Let’s take a look at the games….
Saturday, October 6th
Arkansas (1-4, 0-2) at Auburn (1-3, 0-2), Noon, ESPN2
Auburn is favored by eight. This is a tough one as I really don’t have confidence in either of these teams. The Razorbacks are coming off of an embarrassing performance in College Station. On the other hand, Auburn is coming off of a respectable loss to LSU and also had an extra week to prepare for the Hogs. So far the Razorbacks average margin of defeat is 17.4 ppg and they are also have performed an average 29.5 points below the point spread. I’ll take the numbers and the home team and go with Auburn.
Auburn 30 Arkansas 17
Mississippi State (4-0, 1-0) at Kentucky (1-4, 0-2), 12:21 PM, SEC Network
Mississippi State is favored by ten. The Bulldogs had a week off after beating South Alabama and Kentucky played with South Carolina for a half. Mississippi State beat Kentucky by 12 last year and I think that Kentucky team was a tad better and that State team was a bit worse. Take State, take the points.
Mississippi State 36 Kentucky 20
LSU (5-0, 1-0) at Florida (4-0, 3-0), 3:30 PM, CBS
LSU is favored by 2.5 and seems to be limping a bit as they come into Florida. Florida on the other hand seems to be getting better every game. Florida has a couple of “nice” wins against A&M and Tennessee but Muschamp is yet to get that signature SEC win. I’m going to take the stance of Florida having to earn my respect by winning this game before I just give it to them. I expect LSU to pound the football and I think Florida will have a tough time moving it on the Tigers defense.
LSU 24 Florida 20
Vanderbilt (1-3, 0-2) at Missouri (3-2, 0-2), 7 PM
Mizzou is favored by seven. Vandy has had a week off to sit and stew about how they got manhandled by Georgia between the Hedges. Missouri is coming off of a five point win at UCF and are still looking for their first SEC win. Mizzou also has some off-field distractions as three players, including freshman Dorial Green-Beckham, have been suspended for partaking in illegal party favors. If this game was at Vandy, I would probably pick the Commies but it’s not. Look for Missouri to get their first win over an SEC foe this weekend, even if it is just Vanderbilt.
Missouri 30 Vandy 16
Texas A&M (3-1, 1-1) at Ole Miss (3-2, 0-1), 7 PM, ESPNU
The Aggies are favored by 12 and are coming off of a game in which they scored 58 points. Ole Miss is a better team then they were last year but in their two losses they’ve given up a total of 99 points. Ole Miss is gonna pick somebody off this year but not this week. Johnny Manziel might not run circles around the Rebels, like he did the Hogs last week but I’m guessing he ends up being the player of the game. From a betting standpoint, the Aggies have outperformed the spread by an average of 19 points per game. Not bad.
Texas A&M 38 Ole Miss 20
Georgia (5-0, 3-0) at South Carolina (5-0, 3-0), 7 PM, ESPN
South Carolina is favored by 1.5. We covered this game earlier this week when we did a Q&A with the South Carolina blog Leftover Hot Dog. If South Carolina wins this game it’s going to be because they won the battle at the line of scrimmage and the battle of turnovers. Aaron Murray gave up a couple of turnovers last week that proved costly and let the Vols back into the game after Georgia had jumped all over them early. If Georgia wins this game it’s because it’s offense was simply too much for the Gamecocks. When you look back at last years game, the Gamecocks won because of turnovers and because of special teams as they won by three points but scored 21 points on special teams and defense. If Georgia can make the Gamecocks offense earn their points and can manage their turnovers they will win this game. Look for a close, hard-fought game as has been the recent trend of this series.
Georgia 35 South Carolina 31
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