Last week was a stat padder as the SEC took on seven FCS programs. I went 10-1 straight up with the only loss being Mizzou/Syracuse and I went 2-2 against the spread losing the Mizzou game and also Ole Miss/LSU. For the year that makes me 85-18 straight up and 46-42 against the spread. Let's move on to week thirteen…
Friday, November 23rd
LSU (9-2, 5-2) at Arkansas (4-7, 2-5), 2:30 PM, CBS
Line: LSU by 11
Eleven points is a lot to give up after almost losing to Ole Miss at home. One interesting note is that this game pits two of the worst teams at covering the spread in the SEC (LSU is at -4.7 and Arkansas is at -11.4). Both of these teams have been a bit unpredictable this season to the point where a Razorbacks win would not shock me. That being said, I'm riding with Les on this one as the Hogs have been awful at home this season.
LSU 28 Arkansas 14
Saturday, November 24th
Georgia Tech (6-5) at Georgia (10-1), Noon, ESPN
Line: Georgia by 14.5
This rivalry is known as "Clean, Old Fashioned Hate" and it's one that Georgia has owned, especially recently. The Dawgs have won ten out of the last eleven and have won the last three. Despite owning the series, the games have been a bit closer recently with the Bulldogs winning by an average of just over nine points per game over the last three. Over the last four games, Georgia's defense has really clamped down giving up an average of 8.25 points per game. I think this is a game that is close for a half and then sees Georgia pulling away late in the 3rd.
Georgia 35 Georgia Tech 17
Kentucky (2-9, 0-7) at Tennessee (4-7, 0-7), 12:21 PM, SEC Network
Line: Tennessee by 13
Somebody's 0 must go! This game pits two teams that have yet to win a conference game (going a combined 0-14) and also have combined to fire two coaches this season. Last year, this was an ugly game that the Wildcats won with a wide receiver playing QB. This year, I expect Tennessee to actually score some points.
Tennessee 31 Kentucky 14
Florida (10-1, 7-1) at Florida State (10-1, 7-1), 3:30, ABC
Line: FSU by 7
This is a very intriguing game as it holds BCS bowl implications. Both teams are on the outside of the BCS National Championship Game looking in but with a few losses, who knows? After six straight wins for the Gators in this series, the Seminoles have turned the tide and have won the last two by an average of 19 points per game. Jeff Driskel is back in this game but I'm not sure it matters as I think Florida will struggle with the FSU defense and that ultimately will be the reason the Seminoles take the third straight in this series.
FSU 24 Florida 13
Vanderbilt (7-4, 5-3) at Wake Forest (5-6, 3-5), 3:30, ESPNU
Line: Vandy by 11.5
Wake Forest's best victories this season are against UNC, Virginia and Boston College. Most recently they lost to NC State by 31 and Notre Dame by 38. Go with Vandy and take the points.
Vanderbilt 31 Wake Forest 14
Auburn (3-8, 0-7) at Alabama (10-1, 6-1), 3:30, CBS
Line: Bama by 32.5
The Iron Bowl was owned by Auburn in the early 2000's as they won six straight from 2002 to 2007. Since 2008, it's been all Alabama with Auburn's lone win coming in Cam Newton's only season. Last year, Alabama won 42-14. I think this Auburn squad is worse than last years so I see a bit more of a point spread in favor of Bama. The inclination in a game like this is to go under the point spread but Auburn is really bad. Georgia squashed Auburn 38-0 two weeks ago and that was with them taking their foot off the peddle in the third quarter.
Alabama 41 Auburn 7
Mississippi State (8-3, 4-3) at Ole Miss (5-6, 2-5), 7 PM, ESPNU
Line: Ole Miss by 1.5
The odds makers must know something that I don't. Ole Miss is much improved this season but they are losers of three straight and five of seven. On the other hand, Mississippi State got well last week by taking Arkansas to the woodshed. The Egg Bowl has been owned by the Bulldogs lately as they have won three straight and five of seven. I think that streak continues and unfortunately for the Rebels, they will need to wait another year to go bowling.
Mississippi State 30 Ole Miss 24
South Carolina (9-2) at Clemson (10-1), 7 PM, ESPN
Line: Clemson by 3.5
South Carolina's season took a turn when they lost to LSU. Including that game they are 3-2 in their last five but haven't looked very impressive. Clemson looks a lot like the team they were last year. They are putting up a ton of points with their offense but their defense hasn't been providing a whole lot of resistance. Last year, Carolina didn't look that strong coming into this game either. They lost to Arkansas then barely beat Florida and looked rather ho-hum against Citadel. They still rolled Clemson by 21. Clemson hasn't beaten South Carolina since 2008 and none of the games have been that close. Go with the Gamecocks until Clemson proves they can beat them.
South Carolina 28 Clemson 27
Missouri (5-6, 2-5) at Texas A&M (9-2, 5-2), 7 PM, ESPN2
Line: A&M by 22
When the season started, everybody (including me) thought Missouri had a much better chance to be successful this year than did the Aggies. We were wrong. Johnny Manziel has helped the Aggies turn the corner and I just don't think the Tigers can keep up with the Aggies in this one. Mizzou is coming off of a four point home loss to Syracuse and the Aggies are coming off of a win against the #1 team in the country. Go with the Aggies despite the large point spread.
Texas A&M 45 Missouri 21
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