Curt Schilling has made considerable progress since the nagging ankle injury that prevented him from reaching his full potential in 2005. He looked like the 1991 Schilling, a young and confused pitcher that was hanging splitters, wild with his 95 MPH fastball and giving up the long ball. This year, Curt looks more like the 2004 Schilling that won 21 games and took over the role of ‘ace’ when the playoffs came around. There are still some issues- home runs are being hit at a high rate, Schilling will turn 40 in November- but overall the makings are there for another 21-6 season.
Why do I expect Schilling to shine in the second half? First off, the number of home games for Boston in the second half leads all of the American League. The Red Sox are 27-10 this season at home, and you know the offense loves to score runs at Fenway, so run support should not be a problem for Schilling. Plus, at home this season, Schilling is 6-0 with a 2.76 ERA, giving up only 1 homer (compared to 18 on the road) and giving up just 45 hits in 49 innings. With the Sox sporting the best home record in the majors since David Ortiz came to town in 2003, maybe I should feel more comfortable being three up on the Yankees.
The beginning of the second half should not be a problem for Schilling. The schedule looks like this- OAK, KC, @SEA, @OAK, LAA, CLE, @TB, @KC, BAL- probably the easiest stretch the Red Sox have this season. During that stretch, 18 of the 30 games are at home, where Schilling and the Red Sox usually succeed. Later in the second half, with the divisional race likely brewing and big games starting to mount, Schilling is simply at his best. Curt, at 39 years old, is 4-1 with a 3.10 ERA against winning teams in 2006. Oddly, the team he’s struggled most against is Tampa Bay.
Let’s add in a few other factors, the most important being the defense behind Curt Schilling. He has publicly stated it’s the best defense he has ever played with. At one point in the season, as you all know, they went 17 straight games without committing an error. They’re 20 errors to this point in the year leads the American League’by ten! Gonzalez up the middle has been fantastic, Lowell and Youkilis on the corners (they are here to protect you!) and Coco in center are the bright spots. Somewhere, Derek Lowe is angry. But Schilling should benefit from stellar defense even if his strikeout totals go down in the second half.
I would not fret over the possibility of Curt’s arm wearing down as the season comes to a close, though. In his last healthy year (2004), Schilling was 10-2 with a 3.38 ERA, 81 H in 101 IP and a BAA of .217 in the second half. His walk rates are still extremely low to the fact you rarely see Schilling walk more than one hitter over the course of seven innings. He walks 1.06 batters per nine innings, an astounding number for a 39 year old. His K/BB ratio is 7.67, and K/9 is still decent at 8.13. Controlling his pitches will not be an issue.
I really expect Curt Schilling to carry himself as the ace of the Red Sox staff as the season goes on. With Wakefield’s back problems, Jon Lester still learning, a ghost for a fifth starter and Josh Beckett still trying to find his groove, we need Schill more than ever to step up and lead this pitching staff. By all accounts, he is ready to win 20 games in 2006 and help take the AL East crown. So I ask the readers- who is your selection to break out for a monster second half? Who will be the MVP and lead the Red Sox to the playoffs? Is it Josh Beckett’s turn to become an ace, or will a hitter like Jason Varitek find his stride? Who do you expect a huge second half from?
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