Hello Followers. Hope you’re having a great week.
If you read the post below, you’ll see that my picks for this week are absent.
The reason: I overslept this morning–which sent the whole compound in a mad scramble. The other: The stakes for this week’s picks are very, very high.
I mean, if you look back on my record of picking the Cougs over the past few years (2007:12-0; 2008: 12-1; 2009: 9-3; 2010: 10-2) I have only been wrong on a few games. And within that, I HAVE NEVER BEEN WRONG IN SEPTEMBER.
And when you think about it, this game ranks HIGH among the most questionable/competitive contests we’ve seen in a long, long time–at least on paper. So, if you want to check out my final decision (and how I arrived at it), then click on the old jumperoo.
(you can now follow the Sutra on twitter: twitter.com/cougsutra)
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Followers, like SeanHawk noted in the post below, I started this week off very confident. And like SeanHawk, I saw that confidence slowly erode late Wednesday on into Thursday. So, with my confidence in the Cougs fading by the minute, I tried to come up with a pick based on the four primary issues surrounding the game. And those issues are as follows:
1) Its about the economy stupid!!!!! Okay, so maybe the game isn’t about the economy. But, what that famous James Carville quote tells this Sutra is that, when facing complexity, go with the fundamentals. And, as I wrote before the UNLV game last week, the key issue facing this team is NOT the offense or our quarterback, the issue is our DEFENSE. So, the question facing this game is “Can our D keep SDSU from using a LOT of bulbs on that scoreboard?”
And ultimately, my answer to that question is “yes.” With increased depth at the DT, our linebackers should be free to make plays throughout the game. And, in contrast to years past, our outside line-backers are fast enough that we can go sideline to sideline without having to pinch up our corners to stop the run. Moreover, because SDSU tends to throw mostly out of play-action, the ability of our corners and safeties to stay home will help us avoid giving up the big plays. In short, I fully expect this team to be effective enough at the bend-bend-bend-bend-but-don’t-break defense to be successful. Provided that:
2) What kind of “special” will describe our Special Teams? Lots of stuff written this week about how our kickoffs represented the one big area of improvement/concern for this football team. The bright side: we’ve been kicking off enough to know the strenghts and weaknesses of that unit, because WE ARE THE HIGHEST SCORING FOOTBALL TEAM IN THE COUNTRY!
Of course, when you score over 60 points a game, the big drawback is that your punt team hasn’t gotten any work. And based on what we’ve seen in games so far–as well as what we heard from Longball during the pre-season–is that our punting leaves A LOT to be desired. And to me: that issue looms huge, not only for this game, but also for the rest of the season. In short, we CANNOT expect our offense to score every time, nor can we expect them to get multiple first downs every possession. OUR PUNTING UNIT MUST BE ABLE TO TURN OVER FIELD POSITION!
3) TEN QUESTIONS. Before the season started, and before he moved to UT, Longball started a neat series called “10 Questions with the WSUFB Blog.” Our special guest, Mr. Taylor Texas and Mr. Nolan Washington. Fast forward to this weekend and both of these guys will be featured front and center: Taylor will be filling in for Andrew Roxas who is doubtful, and Nolan’s play will be HUGE in making SDSU one-dimensional. Simply put, if our corner play is as bad as it was against Idaho State, and if Taylor can’t make the proper calls with the Fat guys, then we will be in for a VERY long day.
4) Who would you pick? At a certain point in time, it often becomes helpful to take the general manager role and decide which kids you’d pick to be on your team if you had the chance. So, with that in mind, on defense, you have a young, fast, and stronger WSU D that has basically everyone back matched against an up-and-coming SDSU defense which has 4 or 5 guys back AND has played two wishbone offenses to date. Advantage: WSU
Then on offense, you have a SDSU offense that has a standout senior quarterback, the nation’s leading freshman rusher (from last year), four senior starters on the offensive line, and a decent stable of receivers. The additional plus side: That SDSU group is returning from a 9 win team that won their bowl game last year.
Of course, on offense for us, we have an up and coming RB who looks like a 1000 yard rusher. We have a returning 1000 yard receiver, a six deep WR corps, a fifth year senior QB, and an offensive line that returns four starters from last year. Advantage: PUSH.
So, when you put two and two together, you have two teams that appear formidable offensively. And you have two teams that have their fair share of questions defensively. On the plus side for them, they have an old schemester in their defensive coordinator. But, we have much more experience, and arguably, talent on defense. On offense, they have more experience, but they’ve also lost their offensive coordinator, and we possess A RANGE OF WEAPONS that they simply DO NOT MATCH.
In other words, this game is ours for the taking provided that (a) Our special teams DON’T factor in this game in a negative way; and (b) We have a reasonable start to the game.
Do both and I think you get the following final score: WSU 38 SDSU 17.
QUACK 77 Opponent 0. Duck fans should be questioning from now until eternity: Why did Thomas not run the ball versus LSU?
Steelers 77 Seahawks 0. Not a college game you say? Maybe not, but here’s to thinking that the Hawks will have Luck in 2012.
CAL 66 Protestants 0. One word: YUCK.
Texas 28 UCLA 24. This one could certainly be a lot worse. But, I’m not ready to give up on Ricky and his team’s fight just yet, and I think that Mr. Brown has created a bandit outfit that he doesn’t quite know how to control.
Arizona 28 Stanford 27. Call this the “rip off” special. Why? SeanHawk put this game on the radar earlier in the week and I happen to agree with him. Either way, we’ll learn a lot about the Trees after this game.
Colorado 27 CSU 14. Lots to play before when you’re winless and headed to Columbus next weekend.
USC 31 Syracuse 17. Three words: WHO FREAKING CARES??????
Illini 28 ASU 27. Pac-12 shows its really down in its maiden year.
BYU 23 Utah 20. Ditto.
Nebraska 45 Washington 17. This one could go the other way. Both teams are going to stack the line of scrimmage and force the other to throw. My take: Price is up to the task in this game provided that the Dawgs can start well. My other take: Nebraska COULD get rattled if they can’t move the ball early. My sense: Nebraska is going to blow the doors off this one early and a young, but talented, Husky team won’t know how to respond in front of the 80,000 strong BIG RED nation.
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