The Milwaukee Brewers have their work cut out for them if they want to lock down the No. 1 pick in the 2017 draft. They played some seriously awful baseball in April, but they still seem to be leagues better than the Atlanta Braves, who are probably the worst team this century. Facing a surging Angels offense seems as good a chance as any for the Milwaukee to make up ground on Atlanta, but that hinges on the Halos’ pitching staff quieting a surprisingly competent Brewers lineup.
Ryan Braun is leading the charge (161 OPS+) for the Brew Crew, doing his best to raise his trade value as much as possible before the July deadline. A trio of former Astros—Chris Carter (165 OPS+), Domingo Santana (108 OPS+), and Jonathan Villar (98 OPS+)—are also faring well with the bat, which explains why a team that’s phoning it in has scored 14 more runs than the Angels in one fewer game.
Game 1: Jered Weaver vs. Jimmy Nelson
Jered Weaver pitching in Miller Park seems like a terrible idea, but I suppose it’s a better one than having him throw in Arlington. This is where I point out that Weaver’s career ERA on the road (4.13) is a run and a half worse than at home.
Jimmy Nelson is the closest thing the Brewers have to legitimate big-league starter. It’s tough to get a bearing on how much of his early success (3.08 ERA in five starts) is him and how much of it is having a framing wizard like Jonathan Lucroy behind the plate, but he at least has a pretty wicked curveball.
Game 2: Nick Tropeano vs. Junior Guerra
Can we start calling Nick Tropeano “The Constant”? He’s been absurdly reliable in his first four starts of 2016, going more than five but less than six each time and never allowing more than two runs. If he can just learn to get out of the first inning without any trouble, he might actually go six or seven frames.
I have never in my life heard of Junior Guerra. According to Baseball-Reference, he pitched three innings in relief for the Chicago White Sox last year as a 30-year-old rookie. Prior to 2015, he hadn’t played affiliated ball stateside since 2008(!!). He’s definitely going to shut down the Angels for seven innings on Tuesday, because baseball.
Game 3: Hector Santiago vs. Zach Davies
Hector Santiago faltered for the first time this year in his last outing, surrendering four runs on eight hits in 5⅔ innings. His sudden inability to get swings-and-misses was the primary culprit—he had just four swinging strikes on the evening—so the thing to watch Wednesday will be whether he can get batters to start swinging through his fastball again.
Zach Davies has an 8.78 ERA through three starts this season. That is somehow only the second-worst mark in the Brewers staff, and Davies has the fewest starts of anyone. His .467 BABIP-against will probably go down eventually, but let’s hope it stays in the rafters for at least another week.
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