The St. Louis Cardinals come into town on Monday for just the second time since Albert Pujols left the team after the 2011 season. There was a lot of consternation among the Best Fans in Baseball in the immediate aftermath of Pujols leaving for Southern California, but I imagine few feel the same now. And I imagine fewer still envisioned that the Angels would be to thank for a good chunk of St. Louis’ future success. But here we are.
First, of course, is the money that the Cardinals saved by not spending $210 million on Pujols. The team instead reinvested that money into Carlos Beltran ($26M) and Rafael Furcal ($14M), who combined to not only surpass Pujols’ value in 2012 (5.2 vs 4.8 WAR) but also to lead STL back to the NLCS.
The next year came a more direct benefit from Albert’s departure to Anaheim, when the first of the two compensation picks the Angels surrendered in 2012 began to pay off in a big way for the Cardinals. That pick, Michael Wacha, slid into full-time rotation duty in September and went on to earn 2013’s NLCS MVP honors. In parts of four big-league seasons now, Wacha’s accumulated 6.7 WAR (and counting).
The Cardinals made the playoffs again in both 2014 and 2015, the most recent berth thanks to both Wacha and the second Pujols compensation pick, Stephen Piscotty, who’s now hitting a cool .311/.367/.507 through his first 392 MLB plate appearances—good for 2.4 WAR.
The point here isn’t to belabor the Angels for signing an aging Pujols—who, to his credit, has accrued ~13 WAR over his first four-plus seasons in Anaheim—but rather to point out just how good the Cardinals have been at everything since that fateful day in December 2011. Any fears that Pujols’ departure would mark the end of a dynasty have been dispelled by continued success across the board, leaving us to wonder if his legacy in St. Louis might ultimately be marked by those he left in his wake.
Game 1: Hector Santiago vs. Mike Leake
Santiago finds himself in the unenviable position of being the Angels’ de facto ace. With Richards, Heaney, Wilson, and Skaggs all on the shelf indefinitely, Santiago is the only pitcher left in the rotation with anything resembling top-of-the-rotation upside. He’ll likely continue to be the same frustrating pitcher as ever, but he’s at least a legit MLB starter, which is more than can be said for the back of the rotation.
Mike Leake got a bunch of money this winter ($80M) to be a meh, innings-eater pitcher at the back of the Cardinals rotation for the next several years. So far, he’s yet to live up to those very low expectations. Leake owns a 6.03 ERA (and 5.11 FIP) through his first six starts with St. Louis, allowing at least four runs in each of his outings. Hopefully, the Angels can continue the trend.
Game 2: Matt Shoemaker vs. Jaime Garcia
Literally out of other options, the Angels have been forced to bring Matt Shoemaker and his 9.51 ERA back to Anaheim for a start against a team that not only hits a bunch of home runs, but does so against right-handed pitching specifically. This should go swimmingly.
Jaime Garcia always seems to be one pitch away from another shoulder injury, but might actually not be this time. After just 20 regular-season starts between April 1, 2013 and July 27, 2015, Garcia has been the picture of good health, making 21 straight starts without so much as a hint of arm trouble. He also happens to be striking out more batters than ever (26.1%) and is one of just eight pitchers thus far this year to hurl a shutout.
Game 3: Jered Weaver vs. Adam Wainwright
Weaver was great his last time out, matching season-highs in innings (6) and earned runs (1) while setting new bests in walks (0) and strikeouts (5). Betting for more of the same on Sunday is probably risky, but if he’s going to shut down a powerful offense it’s going to happen at home. Is it really too late to reschedule this one as a day game?
This was supposed to be Carlos Martinez’s turn in the rotation, but he’s been scratched with the flu. That means the veteran Wainwright will take the hill instead on Thursday, looking to lower his 6.30 ERA. Waino has struggled to miss bats so far this year and paid dearly for it, fanning a career-worst 13 percent and allowing more than a hit per inning.
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