One much-needed series victory down, two more to go on the most important road trip of the year for the Angels. After a couple unconvincing wins in Detroit — winning a game in which you score a lone run against Randy Freaking Wolf is nothing but unconvincing — the Halos head to Cleveland to take on another disappointing AL Central foe. Detroit and Cleveland were probably the two most popular preseason picks to win the AL Central this season, so naturally they are bringing up the rear of the pack. With a gauntlet homestand against Texas, Los Angeles, and Houston looming, the Angels need to bank as many of these wins against lesser competition as possible to keep their limping playoff hopes alive.
If there’s one area the Indians excel at it’s starting pitching. The Tribe rank fourth among AL starting rotations in park-adjusted FIP and first in park-adjusted xFIP. The Angels will face three challenging starters this weekend, all of whom are capable of dominating the slumbering offense.
Game 1: Andrew Heaney vs. Danny Salazar
Heaney finally received his first big-league whoopin’ against the Jays on Saturday, surrendering eight runs and seven hits in only 3-1/3 innings. It was a matter of time and there’s no shame in getting crushed by a hot team that thrives against left-handed pitching. Heaney has struggled a bit of late, failing to pitch at least seven innings since July 20; he threw seven innings in four of his first five starts. That’s to be expected for a rookie. Teams are going to adjust, and now Heaney will have to adjust, and the cycle will repeat until the end of time. Assuming he doesn’t completely flame out in September Heaney looks like a solid candidate to finish second in Rookie of the Year voting behind Carlos Correa.
Even after getting roughed up against the Yankees in his previous start, Salazar is still posting strong second-half numbers. Or he is just getting a bit luckier, as his BABIP has plummeted below .200 and strand rate has climbed to 87.7%. That’s a pretty simple explanation for how a pitcher can suppress runs despite walking more batters and striking out fewer. Still, Salazar is dominant when he is on, and he is just the type of pitcher that can shut the Angels down on Friday. Then again, so is any pitcher with a pulse. Even that isn’t required, as Wolf demonstrated yesterday.
Game 2: Garrett Richards vs. Trevor Bauer
No Angel pitcher was spared the rod in that Blue Jays series, and de facto ace Garrett Richards threw his lousiest game in memory after allowing ten hits and nine runs in five innings. A theory for Richards’ lackluster 2015: the defense behind him is worse. I subscribe to the belief that 2014 was a fluke and that Richards is probably more of a low-end #2 or high-end #3 starter than the fringe Cy Young contender he was for much of 2014. But he has also had the misfortune of pitching in front of a group of cringe-worthy infielders this year. So even though Richards’ strikeout rate has dropped nearly six percentage points from last year — to a rate that falls more in line with his career rate — he has remedied that by bumping up his ground ball rate to nearly 55%. Problem is, those grounders have been hit to, or hit by, poor fielders like David Freese and Johnny Giavotella. Freese was here last year as well, but he was at least a year younger then, for whatever that’s worth. Johnny G, a horrendous defensive player, replaced the solid Howie Kendrick. Erick Aybar, generally regarded as a great defensive shortstop, grades as middle-of-the-pack in defensive runs saved for MLB shortstops this season. Even Albert Pujols, the only infielder that grades as above average for their position, has taken a step back, clocking in sixth for MLB first basemen after leading the pack in DRS last season.
Richards has been worse in nearly every way this season. Fewer Ks, more walks, more homers, more hits, worse strand rate, etc. Manny Machado and Brandon Crawford could man the infield and not make a lick of difference when Richards pitches like he did against Toronto. But for as bad or meh as Richards has looked at times this year, he is likely due for some better luck in the future.
Bauer is, performance-wise, similar to Salazar in that he is capable of throwing a no-hitter or blowing up every game. He’s just more enigmatic. Bauer’s problem, as all prospects analysts suspected it would, is control. In his last start, Bauer walked six Yankees but wriggled out of enough jams to only allow two runs. Bauer’s 10.2% walk rate is the second-highest for starting pitchers in baseball, meaning his performance is almost entirely predicated on how frequently he can pitch himself out of trouble. Fortunately for him, the Angels often look allergic to free passes, so he should have no trouble in this game.
Game 3: Jered Weaver vs. Corey Kluber
Hey Jered, tell us about your last start.
OK then. Maybe he’s not the rotation savior the Angels desperately need him to be. A mediocre Indians offense could be the temporary medicine he needs for success.
If you look at Corey Kluber’s win-loss record (8-13) and ERA (3.43), you would think Corey Kluber has regressed heavily from his Cy Young-winning 2014. Yet he is tied for third among pitchers in fWAR at 5.4. So what’s up? For one, pitcher WAR is weird. But other than that, it’s the typical stuff you would expect to find in the Regression Starter Kit. Fewer ground balls, more homers, fewer strikeouts, and on and on. The good news for Kluber is his line drive and hard hit rate are nearly identical to a season ago — it ‘s just that now when he makes a mistake, it is going for extra bases more often. Kluber has eight games with double-digit strikeouts this year, highlighted but a ridiculous 18 strikeout performance in May. Anybody that strikes out 18 batters in a game isn’t faking it. The reality is Kluber is still an ace, the first of many the Angels are likely to face in the near future. Depending on how the rotations fall, the Angels could face Kluber, Sonny Gray, Cole Hamels, Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Dallas Keuchel, and Lance McCullers in the next two weeks. Should be fun.
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