The Angels enter their second series of the season in a bad but not-too-unfamiliar position. They were similarly trounced in their opening salvo in 2014 and, after an off-day, went into a four-game set against a division rival needing a win in the worst way. They got it, blasting the Astros 9–1, and then took two of the next three for good measure. That team then went on to 98 wins and a division title.
That’s not to say the same is in store for this squad, but rather that it’s much too early to come to any conclusions other than that the Angels really need that first win. To get it, they’ll have to rely on the shaky, flyball-happy portion of the rotation to quiet some of the AL West’s biggest bats. The heavy air brought in by the weekend storms should help keep the ball in the stadium some, but it’s not going to make a 450-foot blast from Prince Fielder die at the warning track—looking at you, Shoemaker.
Game 1: Hector Santiago vs. Derek Holland
Other than all the home runs, Santiago put together a pretty strong spring—this will be a common theme with the pitchers the Angels are putting on the mound this weekend. Perhaps the best sign from Santiago was that he walked just six batters in 28 innings of work (1.9 BB/9), which would easily blow away his best walk rate if stretched over a full season. Even Carlos Marmol could probably put up that BB rate in a 28-inning sample, of course, but there’s always a chance those gains are real. Strikeout and walk rates are the two spring stats that might actually be predictive, after all.
Holland is something of a wild card for the Rangers. The southpaw has thrown just 95⅔ innings the last two years because of knee and shoulder injuries, and he pitched poorly when he returned to the mound late last season. It’s tough to know what to read into the team pushing him down into the No. 4 spot in the rotation, but it probably isn’t good. He’s not that far removed from being a top-line starter, however, and he’s still just 29, so there’s always a chance he’ll return to his 2013 form.
Game 2: Matt Shoemaker vs. A.J. Griffin
Shoemaker followed up his disappointing and dinger-heavy sophomore season by allowing an absurd number of home runs (9) this spring. His other peripheral numbers remain strong, leading one to believe that maybe he can still turn things around. However, a good K/BB ratio is not always inversely correlated with low HR and hit rates—see: Joe Blanton, Ricky Nolasco, etc.—so there’s no guarantee it’ll happen. It could just be that Shoemaker really is the pitcher everyone thought he was before 2014 happened. Shouldn’t take long to find out.
Friday’s start will be A.J. Griffin’s first since facing the Angels as a member of the A’s on September 24, 2013. The right-hander underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2014 and has been fighting his way back to the big leagues ever since. He won the final spot in Texas’ rotation by pitching better than Jeremy Guthrie in camp, but he may end up being a placeholder until Yu Darvish returns midseason. Griffin too has a history of struggles with the long ball, so Arlington might not be the best fit for him.
Game 3: Garrett Richards vs. Cole Hamels
Richards had incredible stuff on Opening Day, he simply lost the handle on it for an inning. All the necessary pieces—i.e. velocity, movement, confidence—seem to there for him to become a top-ten pitcher in the league again, it’s just a matter of putting them together. This is easier said than done, of course, but Richards appears to be pretty close to getting everything to click.
Hamels was strong in his 2016 debut, holding the Mariners to two runs (on two solo home runs) in seven innings. The Angels’ righty-heavy lineup should match up well against Hamels, but whether it actually will remains to be seen. The team had an equally unbalanced lineup last season and couldn’t hit left-handed pitching to save its life—their 87 OPS+ vs LHP was the fifth worst in baseball.
Game 4: Jered Weaver vs. Martin Perez
Everyone breathe a huge sigh of relief that Weaver gets to make his 2016 debut at Angel Stadium. If his 80 mph fastball is going to play up anywhere, it’ll be at home. Weaver was fantastic in Anaheim in 2015 despite his diminished stuff, posting a 2.79 ERA in just under 70 innings. On the road? Not so much: A 6.01 ERA in just over 90 innings. If there’s a way to make him a starter for only home games all season, the Angels should absolutely do it.
Perez has had the Angels’ number in the past—2.28 ERA in ~28 innings—but he’s done a lot of it with smoke and mirrors. He isn’t going to maintain a .222 BABIP against the Halos forever, and his constant struggle to miss bats and stay in the strike zone make him ripe for obliteration. He probably won’t ever be an Angels punching bag like Colby Lewis, who unfortunately won’t pitch this weekend, but he will run out of luck eventually. If any game this series is going to be a barnburner, it’s this one.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
