158 games down, four to go, and I am totally unprepared for the craziness that awaits us fans this weekend. Like most of you, I had given up on the idea of the playoffs in August…Then September happened. Then the Astros faltered. Then the Angels made up a bunch of ground on the Rangers. Now the Angels are heading into Arlington without Huston Street, without Matt Shoemaker, with an offense that has scratched and clawed out games, with every arm available and with Garrett Richards waiting to possibly go on three days rest just in case the Angels absolutely need to win the last game of the season. Hold on to your butts, everyone. This is about to get crazy.
First, here is some encouraging news about the Angels final series:
- 10-5 – That is the Angels record against the Rangers this year. That includes going 5-1 when the Angels play the Rangers in Arlington.
- 96 – That is the number of runs the Angels have scored against the Rangers this year in 15 games, good for an average of 6.4 runs per game. In the six games played at Arlington, the Angels have scored 51 runs, good for an average of 8.5 runs per game.
- In the last series that these two teams hooked up for in Anaheim, the Angels took two out of the three games.
The Angels have gone 18-9 so far this month while outscoring opponents 123-106. The Rangers have gone 18-10 this month while outscoring opponents 151-114. I will be buying out all of the heartburn medication that WalMart has as soon as I am done writing this post. On the one hand, I, personally, am confident about this series. On the other hand, my heart can’t handle even one single hiccup.
Game 1: Andrew Heaney vs. Derek Holland
Andrew Heaney has zero wins in his last three starts (TRADE HIM!), but he is sporting a nifty 2.12 ERA and has struck out 15 over his last 17 innings. He’s made one start against Texas this year, and in that lone start he gave up two runs over six innings while striking out four hitters. Mr. Heaney has, in my opinion, been the Angels most consistent pitcher this season. He’s not my first choice for a do-or-die game, but he’s a good choice for the opener of a crucial series.
After starting the season on the disabled list, Derek Holland has not exactly been a saving grace for the Rangers. In his nine starts since his return, he’s sporting an ERA of 4.99 and a WHIP of 1.34. And over his last three starts, he is 0-1 with an ERA of 9.60 and only five strikeouts in his last 15 innings. The Angels will most likely throw out their all right-handed lineup in tonight’s opener, which is great considering that righties are hitting a robust .273/.339/.522 against Holland this season. And when in Arlington, hitters are hitting an even better .298/.356/.524 against Dutch Oven.
Game 2: Jered Weaver vs. Martin Perez
Man, this one worries me. Throughout his career, Jered Weaver has found ways to win, and it was usually to the chagrin of sabermetrics as Weaver was forever and always outplaying his peripheral numbers. This year, not so much. I can’t think of another pitcher who I would rather skip in this series than Weaver. Maybe Jered will surprise me. Maybe he will surprise all of us. But I am hoping that the offense brings their whooping sticks on Friday night just in case.
Then there is Martin Perez who has an ERA of 2.65 over his last three starts, but in two of his last four starts has allowed five runs. All of Perez’s three wins this season have come while pitching at home, but he also sports an ERA of 4.71 at home this season which is all of 0.10 better than his road ERA. This game could get ugly quickly. I made need extra Tums.
Game 3: Hector Santiago vs. Colby Lewis
Hector Santiago did nothing but look great during the first half of the season. He has now done nothing but get his butt kicked in the second half of the season. With an ERA near 8.00 over his last three starts, he’s the second straight pitcher I am not confident in—more confident than in Jered Weaver, but not much. Hector has at least been good for an extended period of time at some point this season, so maybe he can tap into whatever it was that he was doing before July, and pitch like the All-Star that he was from April through June. Mostly because it is kind of important that he does.
Hi, Colby. Nice to see you again. Colby Lewis’ career numbers against the Angels are 6-11 with a 6.12 ERA. I have always enjoyed seeing that the Angels were facing Colby Lewis. And, with Santiago opposite of Lewis on Saturday, it excites me more than ever.
Game 4: Nick Tropeano vs. Cole Hamels
Nick Tropeano is the scheduled pitcher, but if the Angels NEED this game, then it will be Garrett Richards on short rest. Richards has never thrown on short rest, so how his arm reacts to this challenge is anybody’s guess. Tropeano on the other hand just came off of a start where he struck out 11 over 6.2 innings, and he has a microscopic 0.75 ERA over his last three starts. Granted, Mike Scioscia has been limiting him, but on the last day of the season, I don’t think that there is time to baby a pitcher. Furthermore, the idea of Tropeano pitching on the last day, or even a game 163 situation, doesn’t bother me.
It is interesting to see that the Rangers have Cole Hamels lined up for the last game of the season, but, here we are. Since the trade from the Phillies, Hamels has gone 6-1 with a 3.86 ERA. Over his last three starts, he is 3-0 with a 3.32 ERA. At Arlington this year, he is 3-0 with a 4.01 ERA. So, maybe there is some hope there, but there is a reason why Cole Hamels was such a sought after commodity over the winter and at this year’s trade deadline, and it is because he is a damn good pitcher who has been in these situations before.
The Angels need to sweep the Rangers to win the division. A tall order to be sure, but not impossible or improbable. The Angels have done quite well against the Rangers this year, and the Angels have been the “hotter” team as of late going 7-1 over the last eight games while the Rangers went 5-3. Tonight’s game will erase the half-game difference between the Angels and the Astros as the Astros are idle tonight. Neither the wild card or the division will be easy for the Angels to secure. Aside from sweeping the Rangers, they have to outpace the Astros who are playing the Diamondbacks to finish the season.
This weekend is going to be super-duper stressful.
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