Few things cure a slumping offense better than a trip to Arlington. After scoring 33 runs in a three-game demolition of the Texas Rangers, the Angels head to renowned hitter paradise Coors Field for perhaps another dose of offensive panacea. Even if you don’t subscribe to things like “momentum,” it will be disappointing if the Angels fail to score a bunch more runs during the brief two-game set against the Rockies. They’d better do it now, because Safeco Field and Felix Hernandez await on Thursday. Predicting individual baseball games is foolish, but this feels like a series the Angels should sweep.
Now that I have jinxed the Angels, you may direct your scorn at me after the Rockies win both games.
Game 1: Andrew Heaney vs. Chad Bettis
Heaney will take his shiny 1.38 ERA on the road for the first time as an Angel and face possibly his biggest test. On one hand, his previous two starts came against two of the best offensive teams in baseball – the Yankees and Astros — and the Rockies are one of the worst, as their team 87 wRC+ can attest. On the other hand, dat Coors Field. Shutting down a Rockies lineup with a mortal Troy Tulowitzki and a replacement level Carlos Gonzalez* isn’t impressive in and of itself, but a good start at a notoriously unfriendly park for pitchers would be another reason to believe Heaney is the real deal right now. With Jered Weaver likely back soon, Heaney has a chance to cement a rotation spot for himself Tuesday evening.
* CarGo owns a -4 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this year!
Chad Bettis is a Rockie pitcher that, like, a dozen people have heard of. Even though he shares anonymity with most Rockie arms, Bettis is actually putting up a solid season, unlike most Rockie arms. Bettis’ 84 FIP-, which is adjusted for ballpark, ranks 27th best among starting pitchers in baseball. That’s not quite elite, but the Rockies always have trouble finding even average starting pitching. Bettis, only 26 and a second round pick from the 2010 draft, could finally be the above average starting arm the Rockies have long tried to find or develop.
Game 2: Matt Shoemaker vs. Chris Rusin
I’m tired of talking about Matt Shoemaker’s home runs troubles, too, but it should at least be mentioned that only four ball parks in the majors average more home runs per game than Coors Field, according to ESPN’s Home Run Tracker. Shoemaker’s ground ball rate has trended up each month, not including his lone July outing. It sounds simple, but if Shoemaker forces the Rockies to kill worms all game then he should be fine. If not, then this has the makings of a slug fest.
Like Chad Bettis, Chris Rusin is another non-household name. But unlike Bettis, Rusin isn’t very good. Rusin sports a 51.6% ground ball rate, imperative for any Colorado pitcher without overwhelming stuff. Indeed, batters only whiff on 9.5% of Rusin’s strikes, slightly above average for starting pitchers. Rusin will rely on Nolan Arenado and D.J. LeMahieu to gobble up batted balls and get the Rockies out of jams. Rusin is a superior ground ball artist to Shoemaker but the strategy is not dissimilar to The Cobbler’s; the two even have nearly identical home run to fly ball rates, 14.6% for Rusin and 14.5% for Shoemaker. If the Angels remember to bring the offense they found in Texas, though, if might not matter what Rusin does to combat them.
Fun With Mike Trout
During their last visit to Coors Field in 2012, the Angels swept the Rockies and outscored them 28-15. Not quite the ass-kicking they just handed the Rangers, but a sufficient curb stomp nonetheless. How did rookie Mike Trout fare in that series? Oh, just a .571/.625/.643 slash line in 16 plate appearances with four stolen bases.
I look forward to seeing what Trout has planned for an encore.
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