Prior to dropping the Memorial Day weekend series in Boston the Angels had gone unbeaten in five consecutive series. Just a few days later, though, and they’ve dropped two straight series to scuffling Red Sox and Padres teams. Both series exemplified issues that have plagued the Angels all season: lousy offense against weak starting pitchers, inopportune defensive miscues, and an inconsistent bullpen. The Padres series dropped the Angels to 11-11 at home — in 2014, the Angels only lost 29 home games all season.
Their opponent this weekend doesn’t mind playing on the road, either. The Angels welcome the Detroit Tigers for a four-game set to Anaheim and Detroit’s 14-8 mark on the road is the second best road record in baseball. Detroit is currently mired in a bit of a slump, dropping six of their last 11 games. Yet, at 28-20 they still own the fourth-best record in the American League and seem like a safe bet for at least a wild card berth, even at this early stage.
Game 1: C.J. Wilson vs. Buck Farmer
Maybe the biggest sign of Wilson’s improvement this year is that I was genuinely disappointed in his start at Fenway, when he allowed four runs through six innings, striking out six and walking three. Wilson started the game strong, too, striking out four of the first seven batters he faced and using pitches economically. Angel fans would have rinsed AND repeated for that kind of start in the second half of 2014, but now we all shrug knowing that kind of mediocrity is something the 2015 offense can’t overcome. But we should embrace the “meh,” because who knows how long it’s going to last.
Buck Farmer. Wonderful name. There’s no way he doesn’t hunt in the offseason. Farmer made two starts for the Tigers last August, combining for 6-1/3 innings and 11 runs. Farmer and Wilson had pretty similar Augusts. Anyway, Farmer is making his season debut for Detroit and he’s a relative unknown, so expect him to throw eight shutout innings of two-hit ball against the Angels.
Game 2: Hector Santiago vs. Anibal Sanchez
Small sample size, but still: Santiago has pitched more than six innings his last two starts. In 24 starts last year, he only managed that feat TWICE. In six of his nine starts this year he has lasted at least six innings, matching his 2014 total but in 15 fewer starts. Santiago still has issues putting batters away when he gets ahead and when there is two outs in the inning, but at least he is doing a better job keeping the the cushy middle relief in the bullpen a little longer. Or Mike Scioscia has more faith in Santiago. Either way, for a pitcher that wasn’t assured a rotation spot this spring Santiago has been a bonus from the #5 slot in the rotation. His performance has presented the Angels the opportunity to shop him on the trade market for a desperately needed bat.
Sanchez was one of the best pitchers in baseball before a strained pectoral muscle in August sidelined him for 45 days. Now healthy, Sanchez’ 6.12 ERA is the fifth-worst in baseball for qualified starters. Sanchez is probably due for some better luck, though — his strikeout and walk rates are actually better than his career rates, and he’s allowing the most soft contact since 2011, but his left on base percentage (LOB%) has cratered to 59.5%, far below his typical 72.6% rate and the 71.9% rate for starting pitchers across baseball this year. A career-low groundball rate and a 23.4% line drive rate can help explain this trend, but Sanchez is still better than his ERA suggests.
Somebody named Buck Farmer and a pitcher due for some positive regression? It’s likely the Angels don’t score until Saturday.
Game 3: Jered Weaver vs Shane Greene
Yep, I’ll admit it: I wrote Weaver off. After he allowed ten hits in five innings in San Francisco on May 3, I started counting the days until his contract expired next season. Weaver has been maybe my favorite Angel pitcher ever, but it was tough to watch a fiery competitor and former elite pitcher get roasted every five days. Maybe all Weaver really had to do was stop jerking the ball off (link is SFW, promise), or maybe this current stretch of success is a mirage. It’s still nice to see Weaver baffling hitters with guile and deception again, if only for a short time.
Shane Greene’s peripherals caught up to him. Through three starts, Greene pitched 23 innings and allowed one run despite striking out only 11 batters. Sub-.200 BABIPs tend to be unsustainable. Greene allowed 15 runs combined in his fourth and fifth starts, but has since settled in a groove as a decent pitcher relying on luck and defense. Greene allowed four runs against Oakland on Monday, so who knows which part of the roller coaster the Angels are going to catch.
Game 4: Matt Shoemaker vs David Price
Speaking of roller coasters, no Angel embodies that more than The Cobbler. Here are his runs allowed over his last five starts: 0, 8, 1, 6, 3. Shoemaker’s success, or lack of, has been predicated on home runs. In starts where he has allowed one or zero homers, Shoemaker allowed three runs or less. In the five starts where he’s allowed two homers or more, he has allowed three runs or more. Pitchers should avoid home runs, groundbreaking stuff, I know. Shoemaker’s K and walk rates are fine, but as Mike showed us, Shoemaker’s real problem has been location. Shoemaker succeeded last year because he kept the ball down in the zone, and this year…not so much. Even on Tuesday, when he allowed no runs and four hits in seven innings against the Padres, he still elevated the ball more than fans would like. Here, look:
This may have been Shoemaker’s design because the Padres have a mediocre offense and won’t punish many of those mistakes. But it furthers a worrying trend. The Tigers have the second best wRC+ in the American League; if Shoemaker lives in the middle of the strike zone the Tigers can expose him.
David Price is good. A little less good than normal, but still damn good.
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Promotional Primer
Heading out to the ballpark? Here’s the promotions you can look forward to.
Thursday: Singles Night
Love is in the air in Anaheim. Oh, sorry, that’s just another Pujols pop-up. Disregard.
Come meet your future husband/wife at the Big A. This could lead to some very awkward and presumptuous Kiss Cam shenanigans.
Friday: Matt Shoemaker Bobblehead
The only bobblehead with a more glorious beard than the Angels garden gnome.
Saturday: Fireworks show
I don’t care about fireworks until the finale. All fireworks shows would be greatly improved if they were just finales.
Sunday: N/A
No promotions. Feel free to stay home.
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