So rarely does winning two out of three against a division rival feel so hollow. But that’s where the Angels are after blowing the third game in the series against the A’s, a winnable game considering they faced Barry Zito and took a 5-3 lead into the seventh inning. Then…everything fell apart. The irony of the loss was that, of all the games on this home stand, the final game against Oakland was the Angels’ most advantageous pitching matchup. Baseball will never not be confounding.
The silver lining is the Angels are still tied with Houston in the loss column. The loss in the finale dropped the Halos three games behind the Rangers, so for the Angels to win the division they’ll need to sweep the four-game series in Arlington this weekend. I’m not holding my breath for that one. Meanwhile, the Astros will be in Arizona to close out their season. Go Diamondbacks and all, but the Angels will need to play better baseball than they did on Wednesday if they’re to survive the regular season.
Boxscore Breakdowns
Takeaways
Scioscia Gets Defensive
I know they won the series, but let’s start with the bad because I’m a pessimist. When Garrett Richards, in theory the Angels’ best pitcher, took the ball against Barry Zito on Wednesday it became, if not a must-win, then a game the Angels really needed to win. Regardless of what happened with any of the other games going on that night, you can’t lose to Barry Zito in 2015, particularly when your best pitcher—again, in theory—is toeing the slab. So of course we had a microcosm of 2015 Angel baseball: shaky starting pitching, the return of the bLOLpen, TOOTBLANs, crappy infield defense, an inability to knock Zito around when he got into jams, and a rally that falls just short. Really just the works. Of course, that all wouldn’t be complete without some over-managing from Mike Scioscia, so let’s do a mini version of Second Guessing Scisocia.
I hate defensive replacements. Hate them almost always. I might be wrong on this topic, and there might be situations where deploying them is totally reasonable. That situation is definitely not when your team holds a slim two-run lead with nine outs to go when you have as weak a bullpen as the Angels do. After Johnny Giavotella hit the go-ahead home run in the sixth, Scioscia decided then was the time to take out one of the Angels’ hottest hitters. “Two runs is totally enough for my bad bullpen,” said Scioscia. Then without fail, Taylor Fatherston, Johnny G’s replacement, commits an error to allow the leadoff batter to reach base. The flood gates open and Oakland takes a two-run lead, and whatdayaknow now you’re without one of your better hitters (of late). The thing of it is that Featherston, I contend, isn’t even that great a defensive player. He’s fine, certainly better than Giavotella, but for someone with no value to a Major League baseball team other than his defense, he better be a transcendent fielder. And he’s just not; he’s above average.
While I’m pissed at Scioscia: because when runners are on base and you need a strikeout, the guy to definitely bring in is Trevor Gott, he of the 13.3% strikeout rate. That’s the sixth lowest rate for MLB relievers with at least 40 innings.
Nick Tropeano and the Angels’ Pitching Depth
Who saw THAT Nick Tropeano start coming on Tuesday? After Josh Reddick hit a double off the top of the right field wall in the top of the first, I figured the Angel offense would need to score a bunch of runs if they were to win the game. The offense obliged but Trop didn’t need the help after all. The Tropedo befuddled Oakland all night with his off-speed pitches, striking out 11 A’s while walking only one and allowing one run on three hits in 6-2/3 innings. The start, coupled with the Angels teeing off with runners in scoring position, gave the Halos a comfortable win and allowed a gassed bullpen some rest. Trop handed the ball to Cam Bedrosian for one out, then Mat Latos finished off the last two innings in mop-up duty.
Credit Tropeano for a brilliant performance in a pennant race pressure cooker, but let’s also credit Jerry Dipoto for building the starting pitching depth to begin with. Let’s think back to one year ago, when Cory Rasmus for three innings was probably the Angels’ third best starting pitcher. Now, the Angels are blessed with arms, a variety of veterans and youngsters and right-handers and left-handers. None of them are aces, per se—unless Garrett Richards finds his 2014 form—but it’s the type of depth that a lot of clubs would envy. The Angels are down two starters for the rest of the year in C.J. Wilson and Tyler Skaggs, not to mention ailments affecting Jered Weaver and Matt Shoemaker. Yet, they’re in the midst of a crucial stretch of winning baseball. That’s depth.
As it looks now, the only deserving locks for the 2016 rotation are Richards and Andrew Heaney. Weaver will make it because a) he makes a lot of money, b) “veteran presence,” and c) you would think his stuff wouldn’t jibe out of the bullpen. With Wilson, Shoemaker, Tropeano, Skaggs, and Hector Santiago, that leaves five options for the final three spots. Maybe the Angels can trade a pitcher for a much-needed bat? Or, since they don’t have to sign an expensive free-agent starting pitcher, whatever resources available in Arte Moreno’s piggy bank can be devoted to improving the lineup and/or bullpen. Speaking of the bullpen…whoever doesn’t make the rotation can improve the pen’s depth. I’d like to see Wilson and Santiago come out of the pen because they have experience doing so and watching them work five innings is akin to receiving intrusive dental work.
Those are issues for a few weeks from now. In the present, though, if the Angels had the same starting pitching depth they had 365 days ago, we wouldn’t be talking about them as a serious playoff threat right now.
How to Train Your BABIP Dragons
It was obvious Game 2 would go the Angels way when Albert Pujols manufactured a run all by himself. He legged out—a generous usage of that term—an infield single up the middle, then stole second base without a throw from Stephen Vogt after Chris Bassitt (rightfully) paid him no attention, then advanced to third base on a ground out, then scored on David Freese‘s base hit. Not the likeliest of Pujols runs, but a run all the same.
While we’re on the topic of an Albert Pujols infield hit, Pujols also added two other non-homer hits in the series, bringing his BABIP to… .213. In the Wild Card era, that’s the second worst rate, trailing only Aaron Hill‘s .196 campaign. Fun fact: Vernon Wells‘ .214 in 2011 is third worst. (That’s right, Arte, two of your three ill-advised acquisitions have posted two of the worst BABIPs of the last 20 years for your team. Congrats!) Without his 38 homers, Pujols would be a replacement level player with six years remaining on his contract. Wheeeeee!
Are Pujols’ BABIP woes actually a little encouraging, though? Pujols’ career BABIP is .297 and it’s unlikely he’ll reach that again. Defenses improve shifting tactics every year, he’s slow so those infield hits are quite rare, and he’s simply just not as good as he used to be. In his Cardinals hey-day, Pujols posted four straight seasons with hard-hit ball rates in the 40% range, a rate that has sunk to 32.9% this year. But even that rate isn’t that sharp a decline from his career rate of 35.9%, at least, not sharp enough to support a .213 BABIP. I’m not the first person to point out that Pujols is hitting fewer ground balls and more fly balls this season, helping the homers but hurting the overall number of hits. Perhaps that’s a conscious decision to avoid the shift and exerting himself on the base paths or perhaps it’s just a one-off fluke.
Typically, when numbers venture into the historical realm, good or bad, they’ll correct themselves eventually. It’s likely Pujols’ new reality is that of a low-BABIP player…but .213? Pujols has proven he’s still a competent hitter when feeling right. Of the bottom 20 BABIPs since 1995, only seven of them have an above average wRC+; of that bunch, Pujols is second to Jose Bautista‘s mammoth 2010 year. Even with some poor luck, Pujols still has an above average bat. I suspect we’ll see a rebound from “really really bad” to “”regular boring below average” for Pujols next season.
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