They’re ba-aack.
The San Francisco 49ers are on their way back to the Pacific Northwest to challenge the Seattle Seahawks for the third time this season. It’s not likely to be the merriest of reunions.
Admit it, Seahawks fans. This is the team that you thought would probably end up here for the NFC Championship game — and it’s the team you least wanted to see one more time in this, Seattle’s supposed Super Season.
Yet, the 49ers return for all the Super Bowl marbles. The 49ers, for all their supposed troubles in the middle part of the season, still earned a 12 – 4 regular season record. They fell only one game behind the eventual NFC West winners in blue. They also beat the Seattle Seahawks the last time the two teams met in San Francisco on Dec. 8. Seahawks fans, no doubt, would prefer to remember the week two beat-down the Seahawks put on the 49ers, to the tune of 29 – 3 at CenturyLink Field.
But as they say, you’re only as good as your last game. Head-to-head, give that one to the 49ers.
Different roads
Looking over the paths both teams have taken since their last meeting, it’s clear the two football teams are on different arcs.
The 49ers won their last six regular season games and have now earned another two straight playoff victories — on the road, no less. They are now entering their third consecutive NFC title game. They are the NFL’s hottest team.
The Seahawks, in contrast, have dropped two of their last four regular season games, including a rare home loss to the Arizona Cardinals. They redeemed themselves in their NFC Divisional playoff victory over the New Orleans Saints, but a few chinks in the armor have emerged since the roared out to an NFL-best 11 – 1 record to start the season.
Something’s off
The Seahawks’ sub-mediocre passing game has continued to sputter. Russell Wilson, despite his NFL-best 15 home wins in his first two NFL seasons as a starter, demonstrates increasing difficulty connecting with his receivers since the weather turned gloomy.
Seahawks observers know that Wilson was off-target on several passes against the Saints. He threw behind or low on multiple throws and seemed to have the most difficulty with slants — a bread-and-butter play in the Seahawks’ offense. The numbers don’t lie: the last time Wilson suited up, he produced his lowest passing yardage output (103) as an NFL quarterback. His play has tailed off noticeably since week 14.
It’s no secret. Coach Pete Carroll addressed Wilson’s dipping statistics in his most recent press conference. “I think he’s doing what we need to do in these games. We can always do better,” Carroll said via ProFootballTalk.com. “But as long as our football team is playing well and we’re playing within the formula and we’re playing good defense, we’re running the football, we’re playing on teams, and we’re taking care of the ball and getting it, we’re going to have a really good chance to win and that’s what’s most important to us.”
Translation: not a ringing endorsement. But he’s right … the Seahawks are doing just enough to win.
Dear 23
Neither team has been lighting it up in the post season on offense. Coincidentally, the 49ers have tallied 23 points in both of their playoff victories (a 23 – 20 walk-off-field goal win against the Packers and a 23 – 10 dismantling of the Panthers). They even scored 23 in their week 17 game against the Cardinals. Not to be out-mediocred, the Seahawks scored the same amount of points in their Divisional round victory over the Saints.
Throughout the course of the 2013 season, the Seahawks averaged 26.1 points per game (8th) and the 49ers averaged 25.4 points per game (11th). However, since the 49ers went on their six-game, season-ending winning streak, they have averaged 26.5 points per game. The Seahawks, in that same span, have averaged a more pedestrian 22.2 points per game. Their relative scoring ability has essentially switched places — the 49ers are scoring more and the Seahawks are scoring less.
Twenty-three points is the magic number for both teams. Score 23 and you’re almost guaranteed to win. Or for you defense-wins-championships types, hold your opponent to under 23 and you win. Twenty-three points a game is slightly below the 2013 NFL average (23.3), but that’s OK. When you have two of the top five NFL defenses on the field, 23 points this Sunday will probably be enough to advance your team to the Super Bowl.
Easy, right?
Not this week. Based on recent performance and the caliber of defenses they will face, neither team is likely to score more than 23 on Sunday afternoon.
Based on recent play alone, the team most likely to score more than 23 points on Sunday looks like the 49ers. Except for this little factoid: The 49ers haven’t scored 23 points against the Seahawks in the past four games against Seattle, tallying 19, 3, 13 and 13 points in their four contests dating back to October 2012. The teams split 2 – 2 in that span.
The Legion of Boom — on offense
Throw out the records and other NFL results and the pattern becomes clear: the 49ers have not yet fully figured out the Seattle defense in any of their past four contests. Seattle won their two games in that span with routinely stellar defense and two offensively explosive performances at home (29 and 42 points) in their victories.
Can the Seahawks get more than 23? That’s what it will take for Seattle to earn its second trip to the Super Bowl. One thing is clear: 22.2 points per game probably won’t cut it, if the 49ers can convince themselves they’re playing someone else.
Julian Rogers is a freelance writer and communications consultant. Follow him on Twitter (@mrturophile), or connect with him on LinkedIn and Google+.
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