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Who: Nevada Wolfpack vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles Where: Aloha Stadium (Honolulu, HI) When: Sat, Dec 24th at 8:00 PM EST TV: ESPN |
Southern Miss Golden Eagles (11-2, 7-2 C-USA)
Most Impressive Victory: 49-28 at Houston (Dec 3rd)
Worst Loss: 34-31 at UAB (Nov 17th)
Notable Alumni: Brett Favre, Ray Guy, Hugh Freeze, Adalius Thomas, Jimmy Buffett
Two games in, Southern Miss‘s 2011 season was already feeling a lot like the previous three under head coach Larry Fedora. A tepid, 2-point win over Louisiana Tech (nobody had them pegged as WAC champions on opening weekend) and an agonizing, turnover-fueled loss to Marshall seemed to be pointing the way to yet another mediocre 7 or 8 win season. But following the expected shellacking of an FCS cupcake, lightning struck in a road upset of Virginia (another team that turned out to be better than we all thought in September), and the Golden Eagles rode that momentum to an 8-game win streak that put them on a collision course with undefeated Houston in the Conference USA championship game, possibly with a BCS berth on the line. Then the magic wore off. USM lost on the road to the pitiful UAB Blazers, and all of their BCS dreams went up in smoke. All that was left on the table was a shot at C-USA title and a chance to crush Houston’s BCS aspirations. And crush them, they did, on their way to capturing the school’s 5th conference championship.
But while the Southern Miss offense gets most of the press, it’s the Golden Eagle defense that paved the way for a breakthrough season. That unit took a quantum leap forward from allowing nearly 30ppg in 2010 to only 21ppg in 2011. Led upfront by the havoc-creating duo of Cordarro Law and Jamie Collins, they finished the regular season in the Top 10 in three categories (passing efficiency defense, redzone defense, and interceptions) and the Top 20-30 in several more. They even etched out their own unique place in history with an FBS-record 8 interceptions returned for touchdowns.
Not that the Golden Eagle offense is anything to sneeze at. Senior quarterback Austin Davis is the straw that stirs the drink on that side of the ball, with his 3,663 yards of total offense and 32 total TDs thus far. You’ve likely heard about how he has broken all of the major USM passing records previously held by Brett Favre, but that feat becomes even more impressive when you consider that, with the exception of former 5* recruit DeAndre Brown’s (anybody remember him?) one healthy year in 2008, he’s done so without anyone you would classify as a “go-to receiver.” And Davis has been forced to shoulder even more of the load this year due to a rash of injuries forcing USM into a true “running back by committee” system, with no one back having broken the 700-yard mark. In fact, Davis actually leads the team in rushing TDs with a whopping 4. The closest thing to a true playmaker that he has at his disposal is diminutive, do-everything speedster Tracy Lampley. In his ever-evolving role as a RB/WR/returner, Lampley has amassed over 1,700 yards and 7 TDs this season. When he’s on, as he was against Houston, Southern Miss is very difficult to beat.
Nevada Wolfpack (7-5, 5-2 WAC)
Most Impressive Win: 42-28 vs Hawaii (Nov 12th)
Worst Loss: 24-20 vs. LaTech (Nov 19th)
Notable Alumni: Chris Ault, Marion Motley, Nate Burleson, Mills Lane, Charles “The Godfather” Wright
Despite the loss of historically prolific QB Kolin Kaepernick and his chief running mate Vai Taua, Nevada was a popular choice to fill the power vacuum at the top of the new, Boise-less WAC in 2011. But a tough non-conference slate that saw the Wolfpack beaten down by Oregon and Boise State on it’s way to a 1-3 start raised concerns over just how precipitous the post-Kaepernick drop would be. Fortunately, back-to-back home games against miserable UNLV and New Mexico gave their offense a chance to get on track putting touchdowns on the board and their defense to grow some semblance of a spine. Three games later, the Wolfpack soundly defeated their chief preseason competitor Hawaii to run their win streak to 5 games, and they appeared to have the WAC title within their grasp. Then came the 4th quarter of the Louisiana Tech game. A win at home against the Bulldogs would have all but clinched the championship, but the Wolfpack coughed up a 20-3 lead late in the game, and LaTech never looked back, running off with the WAC title to a big date with TCU in the Poinsettia Bowl. And so Nevada finds itself in this most dread of places: playing in Hawaii on Christmas Eve.
It was the emergence of freshman QB Cody Fajardo that triggered Nevada’s midseason Renaissance. Fajardo began the season as a change-of-pace option to senior Tyler Lantrip, who lacked the athleticism Kaepernick brought to their Pistol offense. But by the 5th game of the year, it was clear the offense was more dynamic with Fajardo under center (or a few yards back from there), and Coach Chris Ault made the decision to roll the dice on the youngster. It was a little bumpy at times, but the Wolfpack went 5-2 in Fajardo’s starts, with the freshman accounting for over 2,000 total yards and 13 TDs in those games. (Fajardo suffered an ankle sprain in Nevada’s loss to Utah State and did not play against Idaho. He is expected back for this game.)
Amazingly, despite all the losses Nevada suffered on the offensive side of the ball, the Wolfpack currently ranks 5th in the nation in total offense at 522.8 yards per game, slightly ahead of 2010’s Kaepernick-enhanced numbers. Along with Fajardo, a big key to that has been the breakout performance of senior receiver Rishard Matthews (91 receptions for 1,364 yards and 8 TDs).
And, boy, did they need every bit of that production. Nevada currently ranks lower than 50th in nearly every significant defensive category. In particular, they do a poor job overall of getting to the quarterback (66th in sacks), or really anyone behind the line of scrimmage (97th in tackles for loss), and give up a ton of yards through the air (64th with 226ypg). Their one real bright spot on that side of the ball has been the play of senior defensive tackle Brett Roy, who has accounted for 10 sacks and 18.5 tackles for loss on the season.
| Optimum Scouting’s Pro Prospects To Watch:
A game between two recently consistent non-BCS teams, Southern Miss and Nevada have had potent offenses in the past few seasons. For Nevada, Colin Kaepernick may be gone, but receiver Rishard Matthews has the talent to join him in the NFL, potentially as high as the second round. His strong hands, physicality in running with the ball, and his open field ability could cause him to be a sharp riser on draft day. As for Southern Miss, quarterback Austin Davis has been ultra-impressive over his career, and in my eyes, has been the most impressive QB in the C-USA in NFL-talent-wise, more-so than Case Keenum. Also on that Southern Miss offense, offensive tackle Lamar Holmes has the skill set to potentially be a starter in the NFL at right tackle or right guard. On the defensive side of the ball, Nevada features another stellar non-BCS prospect in one of the best inside linebacker’s in the country, James Michael-Johnson. Built and looks the part, Michael-Johnson is powerful and can be a potentially outstanding 3-4 inside linebacker, but his lack of aggression at times and his lack great versatility worry me. Also on the Nevada defense, cornerback Isaiah Frey has flashed, and at times has been shied away from by defenses. As for Southern Miss, productive pass rusher Corderro Law may be a bit undersized, but he’s come up big as a pass rusher all season long for this team, and he continue off of his strong C-USA title game performance and take that to the next level. |
The Picks
Jay: On paper, you have to like Southern Miss’ odds of putting a lot of points on the board against Nevada’s sub-par defense. You also have to like USM’s aggressive, ball-hawking defense against a freshman quarterback who’s prone to some mistakes. But this is where “want-to” rears it’s ugly head again. You don’t have to read very hard between the lines to know that the players don’t want to be in this game. They were playing for the Liberty Bowl. And failing that, at the very least a game in the continental United States their family and friends could attend. But outgoing coach Larry Fedora made the call to “reward” the players with a trip to Hawaii, so here they are, ready to play in front of (at last count a week ago) roughly 100 USM fans. Between getting the shaft on the bowl location and the fact that they’re playing for a coaching staff that is (for lack of a better term) about to desert them for higher paying gigs on Christmas Day, how much are the players going to actually care about this game?
Not that I imagine Nevada cares a heck of a lot more, but they likely don’t feel as slighted in the deal and at least they haven’t had to deal with coaching turmoil. And it’s a much shorter trip from Nevada to the Big Island than it is from Hattiesbrug, Mississippi. I’m expecting an unfocused, lethargic effort from Southern Miss that will allow the Wolfpack steal the upset.
Nevada 34, Southern Miss 30
Kevin: I’m not so sure that Southern Miss got the “shaft” on bowl location. I mean these kids are going to freaking Hawaii! But yeah, it’s not exactly a premier bowl so I get that. It’s a bowl game and bowl games can be wacky but I’m struggling to think Southern Miss would lose to Nevada here. Maybe they can even get a date with Mila Kunis while they are in Hawaii….
Southern Miss 31 Nevada 20
Ross: Southern Miss 38, Nevada 24
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