While the focus of Boston’s struggles has centered on Rajon Rondo, the lack of a rim protector, or the absence of a go-to-guy, other issues have been able to fly under the radar. Even with the many issues the Celtics have, they head into Friday night’s game against the Knicks just one game out of the 8th spot in the East. Celtics fans would certainly love to see their team sneak into the playoffs, and the players have made it clear that this is their ultimate goal.
While Boston cannot immediately address the lack of a rim protector or go-to-guy without making a move, there are other issues that Brad Stevens can fix. One of these issues is the starting shooting guard position.
It is fairly common knowledge that Avery Bradley has struggled this season coming off of his four-year, $32 million contract, but little has been said about the reasons behind these struggles and just how bad they are. Bradley’s play has reached the point where the Celtics should consider replacing him in the starting lineup and bringing him off the bench.
Avery Bradley’s Struggles by the Numbers
The most obvious drop-off for Bradley from last year to this year is his 3 point shooting. He shot 40% from deep last year but in the first 20 games of this season has only shot 34%. It is easy to write this off as a guy just struggling to find the hole through the first quarter of the season, but there are some deeper trends at play here that may prevent Bradley from duplicating the 40% mark he put up last year.
The biggest issue is Bradley’s shot selection. Bradley has had a very quick trigger on his 3 point shot this year, settling for contested shots in situations that he really should be driving to the basket. Bradley has completely fallen in love with his jump shot and forgotten other key components of his game that helped keep the defense off-balance.
Bradley’s 3 point attempt rate, the percentage of his field goal attempts that come from 3 point range, has increased significantly from .242 last year to .339 this year, and as I mentioned above, it’s not because he’s making a higher percentage of his long-range shots.
Similarly, Bradley’s free throw attempt rate of .069 is the lowest mark of his career and half of what it was last year (.136). This means that Bradley is getting to the line at half the rate per field goal attempt that he was last season.
For a team that only scores 14.8% of their points from the foul line, good for the second worst mark in the league, Bradley is a huge part of the problem. In fact, Bradley has not been to the free throw line in the Celtics last five games, and has not gone to the line more than three times in a game all season.
What has been Bradley’s saving grace this year has been his midrange jump shot. He attempts just over a third of his shots from beyond 16 feet and inside the three point line, connecting at a nice rate of 48.3%. The Celtics have used him effectively coming off of dribble hand offs and Bradley has done a nice job knocking this shot down. However, if a player’s biggest strength is his ability to knock down long 2 point shots, the odds are is he is not an effective offensive player overall.
Bradley’s defense has remained solid this season, as the Celtics are 2.7 points better per 100 possessions with AB on the floor. At the same time, this number is not significant enough to make up for Bradley’s inefficiencies on the offensive end. 2.7 points per 100 possessions is helpful, but it’s nothing to write home about. His defense may be better used as a change of pace tool off the bench, as Bradley has struggled to stay out of foul trouble early in game’s to start the season.
If you don’t agree with me yet, maybe you will after looking at Bradley compared to other shooting guards across the NBA. Bradley ranks 51st among qualified shooting guards in player efficiency rating, a statistic that attempts to measure a player’s per minute performance while adjusting for pace. PER takes into account good plays, like field goals, free throws, 3 pointers, assists, rebounds, blocks and steals, and negative ones, such as missed shots, turnovers and personal fouls. The statistic is standardized so that the league average is always 15. Bradley’s is 10.21. There are a total of 50 shooting guards with a better PER. Looking at this another way, you could say that each team has a better starting option than Bradley and most teams have two.
While PER has its flaws (it doesn’t completely account for a player’s defensive abilities), Bradley’s number is bad. It reflects the fact that he makes little impact on the offensive end other than hitting shots, which he’s struggling to do so far this year. While Bradley may save a couple of points per 100 possessions, he has largely struggled to be an efficient player and contribute in other ways besides his defense. He needs to get back to attacking the basket a little bit more and not being so quick to fall in love with his 3 point shot.
Bradley’s struggles do not mean he can’t be an effective player or that he will not adjust his game or find his shooting stroke. I’m an Avery Bradley fan, but at this point, I think his skill set is better used coming off the bench. The Celtics can run the same sets for him with the second unit, and maybe Avery can focus on being more aggressive without Boston’s top options on the floor beside him.
Who Should the Celtics Start at Shooting Guard?
The natural replacements for Bradley in the starting lineup are Marcus Smart and Marcus Thornton. Arguments can be made for both of these guys. First, Thornton would space the floor better and fits nicely next to Rajon Rondo. His 43% mark from three is best on the team, and maybe allowing him to play with Rajon Rondo a little more, the league’s leading assist man can find some more shots for the sharp-shooter. For those worried about Thornton’s defense, it hasn’t been awful this year, as the Cs are only about 1 point worse per 100 possessions with him on the floor.
Eventually, what I’d like to see happen is to have Marcus Smart replace Bradley in the starting lineup. While Smart is another Celtics player who has settled for the 3 point shot too much, I think he could add a different aspect to the starting lineup if Brad Stevens can convince him to use his strengths and attack the basket. The Celtics would not miss a beat on defense, and may even see a net gain with Smart on the floor as oppose to Bradley on the defensive end.
Mainly, the Celtics front office needs to see if Marcus Smart and Rajon Rondo are a good fit together over a large sample size. It would be foolish to go into the offseason not knowing if the two can play together, given that it could be a deciding factor in either giving Rondo a lengthy contract or letting him go. It is still unclear if the Celtics view Smart as a Rondo replacement or a Bradley replacement, but the Celtics would certainly be a better team if both Rondo and Smart could learn to play together effectively. If they can’t, then at least you know that one of the two probably has to go, rather than having long-term commitments to both for the foreseeable future.
Smart is not ready to be inserted into the starting lineup immediately having just come off of his ankle injury, but an eventual move to the starting lineup would help the Celtics this year and in the long run.
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