I’m no fan of wordy headlines, but since there is no chance the Indians don’t make an offer to Bryan Shaw in free agency, perhaps this would be better stated as: Should the Indians make an aggressive long term offer to secure Bryan Shaw’s services in the future? Simply offering him a 3 year, $9M deal just so they can say they tried is certainly different than competing in the open market for a pitcher who will be among the most highly coveted relief free agents.
If this was ten years ago, the decision could be more simple. Back then, Smith would be considered a type B free agent and the Indians would receive a pick between the first and second round for losing him. For example, after losing Joe Smith to the Angels in 2013, the Indians used their comp pick to draft Justus Sheffield, who was then moved for Andrew Miller. Even if he hadn’t been used in that fashion, Sheffield himself is considered one of the top pitching prospects in baseball and would likely be the Indians #2 behind Triston McKenzie, who was also a comp pick between the first and second round. Obviously, there is value in this part of the draft.
With the current system, however, the Indians would need to make an offer of $18M to Smith to guarantee an extra pick in 2018, a number no sane team would ever pay a reliever for one year. Even the Yankees, who’s spending habits wouldn’t be sane for any other team, only paid Aroldis Chapman $17.2M per year.
There is no question, however, that relief salaries have escalated along with their usage over recent seasons. Last off-season, three relievers signed deals over $15M per year (Chapman, Mark Melancon and Kenley Jansen) with Zach Britton and Wade Davis both taking deals of at least $10M. While Shaw isn’t quite this level of relief ace (Cody Allen and Andrew Miller, who are both free agents after 2018, are), he is close and with inflation and a market that will likely feature more teams looking for relief help than available relievers his potential deal could definitely break the $10M mark.
While some may not agree that Shaw is an elite reliever, he ranked 25th in relief WAR in all of Major League Baseball this year (by simple math, there are at least five teams where he’d be the best reliever) and 45th best since 2012. In that span (which includes his final year in Arizona), he’s lead all baseball in both innings and appearances and is fifth in holds (140), blowing just 23 hold and save opportunities. Not only has he been used often and been effective, but he’s been used in pivotal situations and been successful 87% of the time.
Of course, free agency isn’t about rewarding the past, but predicting the future. Looking at that, the total innings he has thrown could be a detriment rather than a positive. While he has never been injured and faces less of a risk of being injured due to his relatively low velocity and smooth delivery, the human body can only take so much and there is always some risk with such a high workload. In addition, there may already be some slight signs of degradation in performance.
It’s interesting to note that while Shaw’s ERA has gone up in each of the last three seasons, his FIP has dropped each time. Without looking further into this, you could say that he was just unlucky and blame it on the defense, but that may not be the case. While his BABIP has risen each year (the main difference between FIP and ERA is that BABIP is normalized to the league average), so has his hard hit rate. This could mean that the increase in BABIP is legitimate and that his ERA is actually a more reasonable interpretation of his value as a pitcher than his FIP.
Luckily, the Indians have access to much more in depth statistical analysis than is available publicly and can make that judgement more accurately, although no analysis is perfect. If they believe he can continue pitching at this level for three more years, an extension of Shaw could get the Indians through the potential rough patch that will happen if both Allen and Miller leave after 2018. If he can’t, they should thank him for his service and be glad they got the best of Shaw before his arm fell off.
In the end, however, with some risk and more pressing financial obligations elsewhere (resigning Carlos Santana, arbitration raises for Lonnie Chisenhall, Cody Allen, Trevor Bauer and Danny Salazar and potential extensions there and elsewhere), it does make sense to move on from Shaw, especially if his market increases to or past $10M per year.
A few days ago I made the case to resign Joe Smith, who is older than Shaw by four years and was used nearly as heavily during his Indians years. Despite those two factors, he was used less often in the last two seasons than Shaw and was the better pitcher in 2017. The deciding point, however, could be financial. While Shaw hits the market as a prime time reliever in his prime, Smith is on the down slope of his career. He would likely be much more willing to sign for a significantly smaller per year value and fewer guaranteed seasons. A one year deal with an option or two like the Indians signed with Boone Logan going into 2017 would be much more realistic for Smith and would mitigate the Indians risk.
Only once in Indians history have the Indians paid a reliever more than $10M per year and it was arguably the worst free agent signing in club history, Kerry Wood with a two year $20.5M deal. While Allen is expected to break that mark in arbitration this year, there is no question that the Indians won’t take such an expensive relief deal seriously, especially if it’s long term. Shaw is a lot better than a lot of people make him out to be, but in the end, he likely won’t be worth the risk without a large home town discount. The Indians will ultimately need to keep the bullpen going the old fashioned way, with their farm system.
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