Should The Indians Trade Carlos Santana?

Make no bones about it, Carlos Santana‘s season has been the most disappointing of any Indians player this season. While much improved over the last few games, Santana’ batting line is a disappointing .221/.352/.381 with 10 home runs through 82 games played. If the season ended today, his 112 wRC+ rating would by far be the lowest of his career. Much of Santana’s struggles this season can be linked to his poor performance against left-handed pitching.

When comparing Santana’s performance this season to his two best seasons (2013 & 2014), the only real difference in his play lies in his performance against left-handed hitters. Historically, Santana has actually been really good against lefties, but this season he has struggled mightily, particularly when it comes to hitting the ball with power. Santana has yet to hit a home run from the right side of the plate this year and just 3 of his 23 hits from the right side have gone for extra bases, coming in the form of just 3 doubles. These results have brought about one frequently asked question, should the Indians trade Carlos Santana?

Traditional fans and casual fans alike have never really bought the argument that Carlos Santana is one of the best hitters in the American League. Choosing instead to believe it is a myth akin to climate change, contrived by sabermetricians looking to push their nerdy agenda on the baseball world thereby ruining the game in the process. The peak of many of these folks’ fandom was the steroid infused 90’s which saw offense soaring to record levels. Living in this mindset, they feel that any hitter who isn’t hitting over .300 and smacking close to 40 home runs a season is a dismal failure and isn’t worth their time; time that would be better spent reading about how the Browns may not disappoint Cleveland as much as they have over the last 15 years. These are obviously distorted interpretations of what most traditional or casual fans have been clamoring for, but the essence of their argument, that Santana should be traded, is at the very least something that should be discussed.

Speaking from a value point of view, Carlos Santana has never had less trade value, that reason alone may be enough to say no to trading him. The return the Indians could receive may not be worth the investment they’ve made thus far, and it’s a legitimate reason not to trade him.

Moreover, it’s too soon to trade him, this being from both a contract and performance perspective. The Indians are a small-market team (I know, tell you something you don’t know) and for that reason, they have to get the most value possible when they trade any of their core pieces. With the aforementioned struggles taken into account, and the fact that Santana is signed through 2016 with an option for 2017, it’s not close enough to the end of his contract for the Indians to be forced to trade him while his value is what it is.

Circumstances would be much different if it were July 2016 or 2017 and Santana were struggling. In fact, the Indians found themselves in a similar situation with Jhonny Peralta in 2010. Peralta had been struggling for a season and a half and the Indians had no intention of picking up his option for 2011, so they shipped him off to Detroit for minor league starting pitcher, Giovanni Soto. While Soto is a talented prospect with potential to contribute to the major league team, he’s no longer a starter and still hasn’t made his major league debut. If this were to be the kind of return the Indians would get from Santana, the Indians are probably better off just keeping him, especially when we consider the final point, he’s historically performed very well in the second half of the season.

Dating back to Santana’s first full season in the big leagues, he has played better in the second half in every season except 2013, when he played excellent the entire season. Given this history of excelling in the waning months of the season, the Indians are likely much more willing to deal with his first half struggles knowing there is a great chance he’s going to heat up soon. In fact, it appears he’s heating up right now. Over his last nine games, Santana his slashing .400/.486/.667, with 12 hits (5 for extra bases), and a 226 wRC+, he’s also struck out just three times during this stretch.

So while many will still demand Santana be traded, it’s not likely to happen this season, which is probably a good thing for the Indians, who are still in a position to make a run at a playoff spot. Like it or not, Santana is key to the Indians’ success and he will be relied upon to produce big numbers in the middle of the order for the next 2 1/2 years.