Yesterday, the Carolina Panthers rescinded their franchise tag designation on CB Josh Norman. Norman was an All-Pro last year and widely considered one of the best “young” corners in the league. But despite Norman just completing the last year of his rookie contract with a breakout season, he is not as “young” as you might think. Norman was born December 15, 1987 which means he will turn 29 years old during the upcoming season.
Teams expressing most interest in former Panthers CB Josh Norman so far include SF, Washington, Pittsburgh, Miami. Others also making pitch.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 21, 2016
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Other teams that have expressed interest in CB Josh Norman include the Bucs, Jets, Bears and Titans.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 21, 2016
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The internet is abuzz with talk over the Steelers showing “interest” in Josh Norman. Of course, the Steelers showed “interest” in Darrelle Revis last year before Revis signed a 5-year $70 million deal with the Jets. Interestingly, Revis is just two and a half years older than Norman (July 14, 1985 birtday) but has played 5 more NFL seasons. Given their relative closeness in age during free agency (Norman is entering his “Age 29” year as he will turn 29 during this season and Revis was entering his “Age 30” year in 2015), it is likely Norman will be looking for a contract similar to what Revis received.
Based on the teams Adam Schefter listed above, the 49ers and Titans have the most cap space available. Ranking those interested by Salary Cap space (per OverTheCap):
- San Francisco – $52,154,301
- Carolina – $31,174,214
- Tennessee – $29,422,028
- Chicago – $22,085,772
- Miami – $16,375,772
- Tampa Bay – $15,720,430
- Washington – $11,682,340
- Pittsburgh – $3,131,807
- NY Jets – $2,838,547
Looking at the amount of cap space available, only half the teams on the list could take on a contract structured like the one Revis received without making additional moves. The Steelers would not have to make many moves to free up the cap space necessary. In fact, it could likely be done in two moves:
- Extend Lawrence Timmons (Basis: Curtis Lofton’s contract)
– $8.75M SB
– $1M 2016 base (fully guaranteed)
– $6M base in 17 & 18 (not guaranteed)
Creates $5,166,667 in 2016 cap space
- Restructure Ben Roethlisberger
– Convert $15,765,000 in base salary to bonus
– $1,985,000 remaining in base salary
Creates $11,823,750 in 2016 cap space
These two moves would leave the Steelers with $20,122,224 in cap space, more than enough to accomodate Norman’s $16 million cap hit in 2016. Of course, things might then get dicey in 2017 and beyond and extensions for Antonio Brown, David DeCastro, and Le’Veon Bell would become question marks with the amount of future cap space available.
After Revis, the second highest paid cornerback is Arizona’s Patrick Peterson who also signed a 5-year $70 million contract in 2015. However, Peterson is a full two and a half years younger than Norman and signed his deal entering his Age 25 season. Peterson also entered the league one year prior to Norman despite being 2.5 years younger. The top two CB contracts signed this offseason were 27-year old Janoris Jenkins’ 5-year $62.5 million deal with the Giants and 28-year old Byron Maxwell’s 6-year $63 million deal with the Dolphins. Neither Jenkins nor Maxwell was coming off an All-Pro season like Norman was, so he will likely be looking for a contract in the Revis-Peterson range.
Finally, Norman’s age should absolutely be considered a factor in his contract. Last season, Norman had 4 INTs (2 for TDs), 18 passes defended, 3 forced fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries and a Career Approximate Value (CarAV) rating of 15. Prior to that, his career totals over the first 3 seasons did not equal those numbers. The CarAV mark is particularly interesting as it measures the approximate value of a player in each season and over their career. Norman’s CarAV of 15 led all cornerbacks last season. As Norman is set to enter his Age 29 season, it is worth noting that over the last decade, only 25 times has a CB had a season with a CarAV of 10+ after their Age 29 season (PFRef). Of those 25 seasons, 4 were recorded by Charles Woodson, 3 by Ronde Barber, and 2 each by Champ Bailey, Brent Grimes, Darrelle Revis, Charles Tillman, and Antoine Winfield. In total, only 15 players appear on that list. Of those 25 seasons, only two of them (Charles Woodson in 2009 and Charles Tillman in 2012) had CarAV’s of 15+ as Norman posted in his Age 28 season in 2015. All this data means is that Norman is likely due for a regression as he ages.
I have said it before, and I will continue to say it:
The Steelers are much better off improving their scouting, drafting and developing of cornerbacks than spending big money in free agency.
There is a lot of buzz around the Steelers interest in Josh Norman, but from both a salary cap and production standpoint, it would be an unwise move to make. Norman would be 33 years old at the end of a 5-year contract, which is just one year younger than Ike Taylor was when he retired at the end of his contract in 2014. If the Steelers are going to spend big money in free agency, something they rarely do and are unlikely to do in this case, it would be much wiser to spend it on a younger player than Norman.
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