My undefeated streak came crashing to a halt last week; thanks a lot, Georgia and Oklahoma! Let's see if I can get another undefeated streak going this week…
LAST WEEK: 4-2
OVERALL: 23-7
#16 TEXAS TECH (6-0, 3-0) at WEST VIRGINIA (3-3, 1-2) (12:00 PM ET, FOX Sports 1)
An unconventional choice, to be sure, but it's not a great slate of games in the Big 12 and Big Ten and I didn't want to spotlight yet another SEC or Pac-12 game. Anyway, Texas Tech has been one of the surprise teams in the Big 12 this year, riding to a perfect 6-0 record under boy wonder head coach Kliff Kingsbury. Texas Tech has taken advantage of a favorable schedule so far this year — their toughest opponent has probably been a 3-3 TCU team — but the difficulty ramps up soon: three of their next four games feature fellow Big 12 challengers (Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Baylor). West Virginia already has one high-profile scalp this year (Oklahoma State) and several Big 12 teams have struggled in their first trip to Morgantown. Suffice to say, Texas Tech needs to be on upset alert here. In fact, I'm going to go ahead and call the upset here — this game is a trap for Texas Tech for so many reasons and I think the trap snaps shut on them.
THE PICK: WEST VIRGINIA 34, TEXAS TECH 31
#22 FLORIDA (4-2, 3-1) at #14 MISSOURI (6-0, 2-0) (12:21 PM ET, ESPN3.COM)
Missouri emerged as the surprise front runner in the SEC East after their stunning road win over Georgia a week ago, but that status may be short-lived. Their big win a week ago came at a cost: QB James Franklin will be out for several weeks with a shoulder injury, meaning that his seldom-used back-up will be pressed into action here, against the ferocious Florida defense. The good news for Missouri? Their own defense is an underrated unit and they get the benefit of playing a Florida offense that is, shall we say, not exactly high-powered. So far this year the big SEC showdowns have all tended to be Big 12-style shootouts; I think this game is a little closer to the traditional SEC style: close, low scoring, and heavy on defense. A play here or there is likely to swing things and my money's on Florida's defense being the unit to make those plays.
THE PICK: FLORIDA 21, MISSOURI 17
#24 AUBURN (5-1, 2-1) at #7 TEXAS A&M (5-1, 2-1) (3:30 PM ET, CBS)
The Johnny Football Scorched Earth Tour continues this week, returning to College Station to welcome a resurgent Auburn program. Auburn has jumped out to a great start under Gus Malzahn, but they've also enjoyed a reasonably friendly schedule; other than a visit to LSU, their toughest test so far has come from an injury-riddled, fading Ole Miss squad. he good news for Auburn? A&M's defense is a sieve; the Tigers should be able to put points on the board this week. The bad news? They're probably going to need to put a LOT of points on the board, because no one has managed to slow down Johnny Football & Co. They've scored 40+ in every game this year, including all three SEC games. I don't expect Auburn to end that streak (especially in College Station), so the question becomes whether or not they can outscore the Aggies. I don't think so; I think they stumble just enough and Manziel has another fantastic fourth quarter to push them to another win.
THE PICK: TEXAS A&M 45, AUBURN 35
#9 UCLA (5-0, 2-0) at #13 STANFORD (5-1, 3-1) (3:30 PM ET, ABC/ESPN2)
A year ago, this matchup was the Pac-12 Championship Game — and it could be again this year, although Stanford has their work cut out for them in the Pac 12 North after dropping a road game against Utah last week. UCLA had their own difficult game against the Utes (the mountains are no easy place to play, clearly), though they were able to sneak out a win. UCLA looks like the class of the Pac 12 South, led by QB Brett Hundley (one of a number of excellent QBs in the Pac 12) and a pretty solid defense. Stanford is the same team they've been the last few years: smart, well-disciplined, and very physical. The wildcard for Stanford might be Ty Montgomery, a game-breaking talent at WR who's been a major weapon for the Cardinal in special teams as well (two weeks ago, he had nearly 200 yards and a touchdown in kickoff returns against Washington). I think Hundley will outplay his Stanford counterpart (Kevin Hogan), but Montgomery will make a big play in the fourth quarter to help Stanford end their losing streak at one.
THE PICK: STANFORD 31, UCLA 28
USC (4-2, 1-2) at NOTRE DAME (4-2) (7:30 PM ET, NBC)
It's rare that neither team is ranked when these two teams play, but such is the case this year, with both teams in rebuilding phases. USC played with a newfound energy in last week's win over Arizona; free of the increasingly stifling presence of Lane Kiffin, they looked like an almost entirely different team — especially on offense, where they played with a rhythm they've scarcely seen this season. Notre Dame enters the game off their own win over a team from Arizona — they eked out a victory over Arizona State in JerryWorld two weeks ago. Can Tommy Rees avoid costly turnovers in this game? Can Cody Kessler keep USC's offense humming? How many stops can either defense get? This feels like it should be a very close, back-and-forth game and it may come down to which team makes fewer mistakes late. Rees is hardly the most mistake-free QB around, but he is at home and he does have considerably more experience than Kessler; I think he leads Notre Dame to a decisive fourth quarter scoring drive, while Kessler throws a costly interception late.
THE PICK: NOTRE DAME 28, USC 24
#5 FLORIDA STATE (5-0, 3-0) at #3 CLEMSON (6-0, 4-0) (8:00 PM ET, ABC)
Finally, the game of the week and, in fact, the game of the year so far, at least in terms of rankings. This is the first game of the year pitting two top five teams against one another and, depending on how things shake out in the Pac-12 and SEC the rest of the way, it could be the only one we get until bowl season. Both teams have high-powered offenses (Florida State is 4th nationally in total offense, Clemson is 13th; Florida State is 3rd nationally in ppg, with 53.6, Clemson is 17th, with 40.8 ppg), led by excellent QBs. Clemson has senior Tajh Boyd, who's completed 67% of his passes for 1783 yards and 15 TD (to 2 INT), while Florida State counters with freshman sensation Jameis Winston, who's completed 73% of his passes for 1441 yards and 17 TD (to 2 INT). Both are spectacular passers, so it's hard to see an advantage either way here; perhaps Clemson has a slight edge given that Boyd is at home and he has considerably more experience in big games than Winston, but Winston has answered every challenge he's faced this year, so it would hardly be surprising to see him flourish again in this game.
Florida State does offer more offensive balance; their running game is 17th in the nation, with 1141 yards and 16 TDs on the ground so far. Clemson's running game isn't bad — it's 63rd nationally, with 1037 yards and 11 TDs – but it doesn't quite have the variety or quality of the FSU ground game. While the offenses for both teams get the headlines, the defenses aren't too shabby, either. Florida State is 7th in total defense (276.8 ypg), while Clemson is 20th in total defense (344.8 ypg). The Seminole scoring defense is especially stingy (12 ppg, 3rd nationally), but Clemson's scoring defense is pretty good too (16.2 ppg, 9th nationally). In fact, Clemson's defense was the unit that saved the team against Boston College's upset bid last week, with the offense sputtering. Of course, neither defense has faced an offense as potent as the one they'll see Saturday night. I expect the biggest impact the defense will make will be in terms of turnovers — any stops of the opposing offenses could be vital, because this has all the makings of a shootout. Clemson has the more experienced gunslinger here, but Winston has been such an unflappable phenom so far — and he has slightly better quality around him — which is enough to get me to pick the 'Noles here.
THE PICK: FLORIDA STATE 45, CLEMSON 41
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
