Those 6-0 weeks seem so far away now… Last week got off to a rough start with three straight losses, but at least I rebounded to get the last three games right. Let's try to do a little better this week…
LAST WEEK: 3-3
OVERALL: 26-10
TENNESSEE (4-3, 1-2) AT #1 ALABAMA (7-0, 4-0) (3:30 PM EST, CBS)
Tennessee finally got that elusive win over a ranked opponent last week, knocking off South Carolina (and all but handing the SEC East to Missouri). Their reward? A trip to Tuscaloosa to take on a Bama team that's outscored its opponents 201 to 16 (!) since that wild win over Texas A&M in the early part of the season. I think maybe the Bama defense has figured out a thing or two; 16 points over five games is pretty absurd. The Vols are riding high after that big win, they're improving, and this is a rivalry game that's seen some surprising results… but I just can't see an upset here. Roll Tide.
THE PICK: ALABAMA 31, TENNESSEE 10
#10 TEXAS TECH (7-0, 4-0) AT #17 OKLAHOMA (6-1, 3-1) (3:30 PM EST, FOX)
Baylor gets all the attention in the Big 12 right now, thanks to the jaw-dropping feats of their offense, but Texas Tech is quietly undefeated too and Oklahoma is still lurking out there as a quasi-contender, too. This game might just be a title eliminator for the Sooners, though: a loss here drops them to 3-2 in the Big 12, with a lot of ground to make up on the Red Raiders and Bears (not to mention the Longhorns). The good news? It's in Norman, where Oklahoma almost never loses under Bob Stoops. OU has looked decidedly vulnerable this year, grinding out ugly defense-first home wins over West Virginia and TCU, getting off to a slow start in last week's unimpressive win over Kansas, and looking downright lost in the loss to Texas a few weeks ago. Texas Tech also has wins over West Virginia, TCU, and Kansas, as well as a shootout win over Iowa State. Injuries have forced Kliff Kingsbury to use multiple QBs this year, but he's had a Midas touch at that position: both Baker Mayfield and Davis Webb have played well this year. Blake Bell's passing totals have declined each week since he took over the starting job (412 to 232 to 152 to 133 to 131); that's a trend that needs to reverse if Oklahoma is going to accomplish anything this season. Tech is playing well, but they've had a few close calls this year and I just don't think they'll get out of Norman with another win.
THE PICK: OKLAHOMA 31, TEXAS TECH 28
#12 UCLA (5-1, 2-1) AT #2 OREGON (7-0, 4-0) (7:00 PM EST, ESPN)
Congratulations, UCLA — your reward for a grueling 24-10 loss at Stanford is to turn around take a trip to Eugene to face the Ducks! The Pac-12 is just brutal this year. Oregon had a tougher-than-expected win over Washington State last week (QB Marcus Mariota actually had to play meaningful minutes in the second half!), but that experience will likely serve them well down the road, with challenging games against Stanford and Oregon State looming (not to mention this game and a visit from Tree-slayers Utah). Stanford's defense squeezed the life out of UCLA's offense, and while Oregon has a good defense themselves, I don't see the UCLA offense throwing up another dud of a performance. The bigger question is what their defense can do to slow down Oregon's terrifying offense. LB Anthony Barr is very good, but the Ducks have such a plethora of weapons, they play at such an unforgiving tempo and, most importantly, they have Marcus Mariota playing at such a high level (he's a deserved Heisman frontrunner: 133/197, 2051 yards, 19 TD/0 INT, 493 yards rushing, 9 TD on the ground). I don't see UCLA slowing down the Oregon offense too much and I don't see them having enough rounds in the chamber to just trade shots with Oregon all night.
THE PICK: OREGON 41, UCLA 28
#20 SOUTH CAROLINA AT #5 MISSOURI (7:00 PM EST. ESPN2)
I've picked against Missouri two weeks in a row and been burned by it; would I dare make it three in a row? No. Impressive wins over Georgia and Florida (coupled with surprising losses by some other SEC East would-be contenders) have left the Tigers firmly established as the favorites in the East — they even have a 2-game lead on the next closest opponents. It was unclear how much losing starting QB James Franklin would hurt Mizzou last week, but the answer was: not much. Backup QB Maty Mauk threw for almost 300 yards (295), although his 50% completion percentage wasn't great, and led the Tigers to 500 yards of offense against the nominally-stout Florida defense. South Carolina brings their own stingy defense to town this week — as well as their own backup QB, Dylan Thompson. I could envision the Gamecocks winning this game — if Clowney has a monster day to lead the USC defense, if Mike Davis dominates the game on the ground — but… no. I've learned my lesson. I'm not gonna get burned by Missouri again.
THE PICK: MISSOURI 27, SOUTH CAROLINA 17
PENN STATE (4-2, 1-1) AT #4 OHIO STATE (7-0, 3-0) (8:00 PM EST, ABC)
Ohio State has continued to rack up wins since entering Big Ten play — 3 in a row, adding to their overall 19-game winning streak — but they aren't winning many style points. A 7-point win over Wisconsin gave way to a 10-point win over Northwestern (in a game that was closer than that; Ohio State literally got a touchdown on the final play) and another 10-point win over Iowa last week. Now they get a Penn State team coming off a bye (and, before that, a 4OT win over Michigan). Ohio State's defense has looked vulnerable in all of their B1G games thus far — Wisconsin traded shots with them and Iowa and Northwestern both had considerable success racking up yards and points on them in the first half. The key for OSU has been their offense — particularly QB Braxton Miller and RB Carlos Hyde — who have been able to take over games in the second half the last few weeks. I expect a similar result here: Penn State will come out hot and move the ball on OSU early, but the Miller-Hyde duo will take over in the second half and lead Ohio State to another victory. Eventually they may run into an opponent where that formula doesn't work, but not this week.
THE PICK: OHIO STATE 35, PENN STATE 21
#8 STANFORD (6-1, 4-1) AT OREGON STATE (6-1, 4-0) (10:30 PM EST, ESPN)
This is actually a ranked team vs. ranked team matchup if you go by the BCS rankings; the computers love Oregon State a bit more than the pollsters, who haven't quite been able to forgive the Beavers for that season-opening loss to FCS Eastern Washington. Here's a guess: they'll forget all about that loss if the Beavers knock off Stanford here. Since that early-season loss, Oregon State has run off six straight wins, scoring 40 or more in four of the six (weirdly, the only two games they didn't crack the 40-point barrier were in the non-conference games against Hawaii and San Diego State) and winning the last three games by 27, 28, and 32 points. Their offense is humming right now, led by QB Sean Mannion, who in seven games has put up numbers that would be a good season for many QBs: 229/334, 2992 yards, 29 TD/3 INT. Stanford has seen a few high-powered offenses so far this year, to semi-mixed results. Washington rolled up 489 yards of offense (350 on the arm of QB Keith Price), but lost 31-28 thanks to a few red zone failures and some big special teams plays from Stanford. And a week ago the Cardinal smothered UCLA's potent offense: just 266 yards total in a 24-10 loss. Given Stanford's experience in big games in recent years and the strength of their defense (and special teams), I favor them slightly here… but weird results have been known to happen in Corvallis and Sean Mannion is more than capable of getting red-hot and torching Stanford's defense. Let's go with the Cardinal in a squeaker.
THE PICK: STANFORD 34, OREGON STATE 31
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