Last week was a rousing return to form, with a perfect 6-0 record in my picks. Can I make it two weeks of perfection in a row? Highly unlikely, but let's give it a shot anyway…
LAST WEEK: 6-0
OVERALL: 13-5
#25 MARYLAND (4-0, 0-0) AT #8 FLORIDA STATE (4-0, 2-0) (12 PM EST, ESPN)
Did you realize that Maryland, they of the wacky uniforms and the much-maligned Randy Edsall, are undefeated? It's true! Florida State and Clemson have been hogging almost all of the oxygen in ACCland (with a bit left over for Miami after they knocked off Florida), but the Terps have quietly rode out to a 4-0 record as well. How have they done it? Well, defense is a big reason why — they're allowing just 10.3 ppg, 3rd best in the nation. Of course, Florida State's offense is a bit of an upgrade over the likes of Florida International, Old Dominion, Connecticut, and West Virginia. Jameis Winston and the rest of the Seminoles on that side of the ball will be an enormous test for the legitimacy of the Maryland defense. Speaking of defense… is the FSU D springing a few leaks? They gave up 34 points to Boston College last week (which was a season-high point total for BC so far), which is not terribly impressive. I'd like the upset potential of the Terps much more if this game was in Maryland; as it is, I think they'll put up some points, but Winston & Co. will pull away in the fourth quarter.
THE PICK: FLORIDA STATE 37, MARYLAND 28
KANSAS STATE (2-2, 0-1) AT #21 OKLAHOMA STATE (3-1, 0-1) (3:30 PM EST, ABC/ESPN2)
The last two winners of the Big XII face off here, with each team also coming off an early season loss in conference play. Kansas State was expected to struggle a bit this year after losing key players like QB Collin Klein and LB Arthur Brown, but Oklahoma State was a chic pick to win the league in the pre-season. But after getting bushwhacked in Morgantown by West Virginia last week, they're staring up at Oklahoma and Baylor (among others) in the league. A win here could certainly get their season back on track and keep their title-winning aspirations alive. It's never wise to count out a Bill Snyder-coached team, but even his sorcery has its limits and these Wildcats appear to be in rebuilding mode. Oklahoma State uses a big second half to make this game into a laugher.
THE PICK: OKLAHOMA STATE 38, KANSAS STATE 17
ARKANSAS (3-2, 0-1) AT #18 FLORIDA (3-1, 2-0) (7:00 PM EST, ESPN2)
It's a quiet week in the SEC, with Georgia and LSU licking their wounds after their epic shootout last week. (Georgia does play Tennessee, but after the Vols had to scrape and claw to get past South Alabama last week — South Alabama! — I have full faith in even an off-peak Georgia team handling them with ease.) Arkansas' league campaign started with a loss a week ago, but they did give Texas A&M all they wanted for three quarters. The only problem this week is that the Razorbacks got the benefit of playing an A&M defense last week that is not particularly, uh, good; this week they take on a Florida team that has a very, very good defense. In fact, given Will Muschamp's love of old man football (or at least offensively-poor football) and Bret Bielema's extensive Big Ten roots, this feels like it could be one of the most stereotypically B-1-G games in a while in the SEC (at least since the last LSU-Alabama rock fight). There's gonna be a lot of running the ball and a whole lot of hitting in this game. Florida's MANBALL credentials seem quite a bit stronger than Arkansas', though.
THE PICK: FLORIDA 20, ARKANSAS 10
WEST VIRGINIA (3-2, 1-1) AT #17 BAYLOR (3-0, 0-0) (8:00 PM EST, FS1)
A year ago, these two played one of the most ridiculously entertaining and high-scoring games in the history of college football; West Virginia won, 70-63. It was a ghastly game to watch if you were a defensive coordinator, but a blast if you liked watching offenses careen up and down the field scoring lightning-quick touchdowns. Baylor's go-go offense hasn't changed much since last year (they're averaging 69.7 ppg and they've scored a cool 70 points in each of their last two games), while West Virginia has been feeling the absence of QB Geno Smith keenly. They did seem to finally find something that worked last week, with QB Clint Trickett throwing for 309 yards and a touchdown (on 24/50 passing) and leading WVU to a 30-21 win over #11 Oklahoma State. WVU made their bones on defense early in the season (see: their grind-it-out 16-7 loss to Oklahoma), but lately their defense has been looking a bit less imposing; Maryland racked up 300+ yards of offense in a 37-0 whitewashing of the Mountaineers and Okie State racked up 400+ yards of offense in their losing effort last week. That's a bad trend to take into a game in Waco; QB Bryce Petty and the rest of the Bears are going to put on another show, I think.
THE PICK: BAYLOR 45, WEST VIRGINIA 24
#4 OHIO STATE (5-0, 1-0) AT #16 NORTHWESTERN (4-0, 0-0) (8:00 PM EST, ABC)
The game of the week in the Big Ten — and possible Big Ten Championship Game preview? — features a pair of undefeated teams. Ohio State is coming off their toughest game of the year so far (a 31-24 win over Wisconsin) and faces probably their most challenging remaining game until a trip to Ann Arbor to end the season. Northwestern has had two weeks to prepare for this game and two weeks to get hyped — and the hype is most certainly there, with College Gameday broadcasting from Evanston this week and the game being a Saturday night primetime national broadcast on ABC. This is the biggest game in several years for the Wildcats; for Ohio State, it's just another big game. Does experience trump excitement? Does superior talent trump massive desire? My gut says… yes. Northwestern has a talented team this year and they'll undoubtedly throw everything they can at the Buckeyes on Saturday night… but OSU is just better. Braxton Miller and the rest of the OSU offense will absorb a few shots from Northwestern before unloading several of their own.
THE PICK: OHIO STATE 38, NORTHWESTERN 24
#15 WASHINGTON (4-0, 1-0) AT #5 STANFORD (4-0, 2-0) (10:30 PM EST, ESPN)
Another game, another showdown of undefeated teams. Stanford and Oregon have been getting all the publicity out of the Pac-12 (and especially the Pac-12 North), and not undeservedly — they've been hands down the best teams out of the league for the past two years and they've been terrorizing the rest of the teams in the league. But this year it looks like there might be another challenger rising up in the North — Steve Sarkisian's Washington team is also 4-0, with blowout wins over Boise State and Arizona and a solid win over Illinois on a "neutral" field in Chicago. Washington's had a good offense for a few years, thanks to the talents of QB Keith Price (1044 yards, 72% completion, 9/2 TD/INT ratio) and RB Bishop Sankey (607 yards, 5 TDs on 104 carries), but their defense has been the surprise this year: they're holding teams to a stingy 10.4 ppg, 4th in the nation. Stanford counters with a potent — and balanced — offense, though; they're scoring over 40 ppg (41.3, 21st in the NCAA) and doing equal amounts of damage on the ground and through the air (218.0 ypg and 221.3 ypg, respectively). They're also at home, where they haven't lost since a 53-30 beat down by Oregon in 2011. There's also the little matter of revenge; Washington shocked Stanford a year ago in a 17-13 win in Seattle on a Thursday night — I don't think there's much chance of Stanford overlooking this game or taking the Huskies lightly. This seems like the best Washington team yet under Steve Sarkisian… but they still don't seem good enough to take down Stanford.
THE PICK: STANFORD 35, WASHINGTON 20
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