I got off to an OK 4-2 start last week, although my upset pick (Cal over Northwestern) whiffed. I did manage to nail the final score of the Alabama-Virginia Tech game almost perfectly, though. I said 34-10; the real final score was…35-10.
LAST WEEK: 4-2
SEASON: 4-2
Florida and Miami are playing an early-season game at noon? Some like it hot, I guess. Unlike the Florida-Florida State and Florida State-Miami showdowns, which are annual affairs, Florida-Miami only happens every now and then. They last met in 2008, when Florida drilled Miami, 26-3, in Gainesville. Prior to that, though, Miami had a six-game winning streak over Florida, including a pair of bowl wins (2001 Sugar Bowl, 2004 Peach Bowl). This year, Florida is again relying on a nasty defense while they try to find an offense; they mustered only 24 points against Toledo last week. Miami is still clawing their way back to respectability under Al Golden, but they have some dynamic talents on talent, namely RB Duke Johnson (19 carries, 186 yards, 1 TD last week) and QB Stephen Morris (3345 passing yards and 21 TD last year). Can that talent make a dent against Florida's imposing defense? Yes, but they won't be able to do enough to win.
THE PICK: FLORIDA 21, MIAMI 17
Oregon didn't skip a beat in new head coach Mark Helfrich's first game last week; they torched Nicholls State, 66-3, in a game where they ran for 500 yards. Chip who? That said, Nicholls State is a dreadful team, even by FCS standards; Virginia should pose a stiffer test for the Ducks, especially after a cross-country road trip. Or at least a stiffer test for about a half. Virginia eked out a 19-16 win over BYU in a rain-soaked (and delayed) game last week, but their offense could only muster 223 yards and 17 points; they're going to need a lot more than that to keep up with the Ducks. I think they keep it close for about a half, but Oregon's depth and relentless tempo wears out the Cavaliers in the second half, leading to a blowout Oregon win.
THE PICK: OREGON 42, VIRGINIA 14
I don't know what Mark Richt did to anger the scheduling gods, but he should do something to try and appease them. A week after opening up with a top-ten opponent from the Palmetto State (Clemson), Georgia plays… another top-ten opponent from the Palmetto State (South Carolina). Ouch. It should be a different style of game, though; where Clemson used a high-octane, up-tempo offense to try and beat Georgia in a track meet, South Carolina is more likely to try to bludgeon the Dawgs with their brutal defense. Clowney & Co. kept North Carolina under wraps in the Gamecocks' 27-10 Week 1 win, but the Georgia offense will be a different animal. That said, I'd feel a lot better about backing Georgia here if top WR Malcolm Mitchell hadn't torn his ACL last week — and if Aaron Murray wasn't 1-6 against top-10 opponents. Georgia's backed up against a wall here — a loss kills their national title hopes and does severe damage to their SEC title hopes, too — and I expect them to come out swinging… but I think South Carolina is able to take their punches and land the final blow. I think Clowney will make a big, game-changing play here, too, and get back some of the spotlight that faded away after last week's quiet debut.
THE PICK: SOUTH CAROLINA 27, GEORGIA 20
Pickings are a bit more slim this week than in Week 1 and this is a conference game… which is a roundabout way of trying to justify picking a game involving a team that only just scraped by against an FCS opponent last week (West Virginia, who needed a fourth-quarter touchdown to beat William & Mary, 24-17, and trailed for much of the game). The Mountaineers appeared to miss Geno Smith (and do-everything offensive weapon Tavon Austin) quite a bit last week; QB Paul Millard went 19/25 for 235 yards and a touchdown — decent, but not the scoreboard-shredding work that Geno Smith was able to do on a regular basis for West Virginia. Oklahoma had their own issues replacing a long-time starter at QB; replacing Landry Jones, Trevor Knight went just 11/28 for 86 yards, though he did manage 3 TD passes (against one interception). He also added a team-best 103 yards on 13 carries on the ground. The Oklahoma offense didn't blow anyone's doors off in their 34-0 win over UL-Monroe, but the Sooner defense throttled the "Funroe" offense, pitching a shutout and holding them to just 166 total yards. That doesn't sound like a good opponent for an inexperienced, rebuilding Mountaineer offense to face right now.
THE PICK: OKLAHOMA 38, WEST VIRGINIA 17
Michigan posted one of the most impressive wins of the week in Week 1, in scoring margin (59-9) if not difficulty of opposition (Central Michigan). Michigan used a balanced attack to bludgeon the Chippewas, throwing for 221 yards and running for 242 yards. Five touchdowns came on the ground (two from starting tailback Fitzgerald Toussaint), while Devin Gardner added one threw the air and the special teams tacked on one via blocked punt. Notre Dame's scoring output was more modest (just 28 points), but Tommy Rees silenced his doubters for at least one week, ripping through the Temple defense to the tune of a 16/23, 346 yard, 3 TD (and 0 interception) day. Both teams should find it much more difficult to get on track on offense this week. Michigan seems to have the more complete team and does enjoy homefield advantage here, but I expect a pretty thrilling game here; these teams haven't played many dull games against one another lately, and I don't think that will change this year. Michigan pulls it out with some late Gardner heroics.
THE PICK: MICHIGAN 24, NOTRE DAME 21
USC picked up a bowling shoe-ugly win over Hawaii in Week 1, a 30-13 win in which they needed a defensive TD and another TD in the final minute to even hit the 30-point mark against the Rainbow Warriors. The Trojans played two quarterbacks, Cody Kessler and Max Wittek, but neither impressed, going a combined 15/29 for 172 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT. The defense held Hawaii's impotent offense in check, but a Wazzu team led by Mike Leach is going to pose a more significant threat. The Cougars lost their opener against Auburn last week, but Leach's offense was able to do some damage: 464 yards and 24 points. QB Connor Halliday threw for 344 yards and a touchdown, although he did have three interceptions. I expect Washington State to push USC in this one, unless the Trojans look significantly better than they did on the islands last week. Still, USC should prevail thanks to a slew of Andre Heidari field goals.
THE PICK: USC 26, WASHINGTON STATE 24
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